Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label Certainty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Certainty. Show all posts

Monday, 30 May 2016

The Political Glass Bead Game: Delusional Decision-Making



The Glass Bead Game (German: Das Glasperlenspiel):-
"The Glass Bead Game is "a kind of synthesis of human learning" in which themes, such as a musical phrase or a philosophical thought, are stated. As the Game progresses, associations between the themes become deeper and more varied. Although the Glass Bead Game is described lucidly, the rules and mechanics are not explained in detail."
So often it is the case that people talk or make a statement or a combination of such to make an argument about the EU Referendum, European Union or Brexit and they may make or use accurate descriptions or inaccurate and empty memes. They may indeed be able to explain these and hence they may even argue in a lucid manner.

But if you want a metaphor which describes THEIR BEHAVIOUR as opposed to taking at face value their WORDS, then you can use the example or metaphor of The Glass Bead Game whereby the total structure of what is said is divorced from a connection to the researched and hence inferred reality of the subjects above of Referendum, European Union and Brexit.

Namely the argument is detached and takes on it's own rules detached from feedback from research from real life!

Most people play this "game" when they talk about politics without realizing it: Indeed they play it because this is what the politicians and the journalists play over and over and over in their communication to the extent it replaces "the real thing" by and large. They don't realize that their descriptions are the glass beads, that their explanations are the advancement of their beads according to the rules they think the game is played by which advances the arguments in some way. And yet what they don't realize is that these "beads" or arguments or as I've called them before are often empty memes or if not they merely tools in the hands of the politicians before they introduce the next seemingly random rule that can never be fully explained, only described as our Glass Bead Game is related above.

Before giving an example let's look at Delusion:-
  • certainty (held with absolute conviction)
  • incorrigibility (not changeable by compelling counterargument or proof to the contrary)
  • impossibility or falsity of content (implausible, bizarre or patently untrue)
The Glass Bead Game as we call it for now, is characterized by the above delusional properties. A statement can be made with "absolute conviction" even if it's a lie or else an opinion but presented as authorative information. Incorrigibility is taken as a given, that others will never admit they are wrong or mistaken and hence any argument cannot "win" despite this format being the type that is repeated on television endlessly: The sparring opponents of "biff-bam" politics. And finally nothing can be falsified: Facts depend on how you interpret them.

Here we see the conditions of the Glass Bead Game where the explanations are never clear and indeed what we have is a mixture of descriptions of delusion combined with the absence of rules or arbitrary rules of the media conduit. What is noticeable is that so many people want to contribute their opinion but end up adding yet another new glass bead to this game.

But like the game of the story, it is a rarefied activity increasingly so, it is merely a kind of national emotional soup to which people through in their ideas and hence what becomes increasingly the case: Politicians subvert the rules of politics increasingly so to gain an advantage amongst themselves and indeed use the Glass Bead Game to obfuscate and exclude people contributing arguments: What they say is if it is common sense or not is immediately converted into this bizarre game that means absolutely nothing beyond appearances or propaganda, persuasion, spin and where it inevitably leads: Newspeak.

Let's reconstruct some of the last few moves in this Glass Bead Game during this EU Referendum and it might help us Perceive The Game for what it is and hence it might allow us to learn what is a fabrication of misinformation which interacting with our emotions becomes delusional that then feeds into the game more delusional "selective rules" and what might otherwise be progressive problem solving:-

Vote Leave/Establishment (Red is Blue Glass Beads):-
  • Have churned up everything in their denial of an exit plan: "A Deal As Good As If Not Better Than Switzerland" (Daniel Hannan's Glass Bead) ; An FTA similar to South Korea, Chile or Mexico (Numerous Vote Leave Politicians) ; A Canadian FTA with WTO Rules (Boris Johnson and Gove) etc
  • Saving Billions of Pounds of EU Payments, Bonfire of Redtape Regulations, Control of Our Borders Absolutely, The European Wide Free Trade Area involves everyone from Iceland to Ukraine to Turkey Why Not the UK?
  • £350 NHS + Immigration Control UKIP
UK Government/Establishment (Blue is Red is Yellow is Green etc Glass Beads):-
  • Countless Studies of Magic Money on the curse of Brexit to the economy under WCS that are left open by Vote Leave's own glass bead moves
  • The generation of David Cameron's absolute lie about Special Status and Political Union which is a heavy history of such Glass Beads from "It isn't happening" "Silent Treatment", "It is happening to others only", "It is happening but is positive", "It is happening but there's nothing we can do about it despite fighting vigorously against it!"
What's so interesting is the likes of some who take this game to be some form of superior and sophisticated exercise of human organization! The pundits pontificate on this sagely and utter their deliverances gravely! They don't have a fucking clue about the rules and that's the point: They gain their positions by appearing to be able to "divine" them more closely than people can!!

Here's a little conclusion: This activity is not the zenith at all, it's a barrier.

When there is block or barrier to innovation and invention and hence creativity which is the source of so much of our potential prosperity then it can be inferred that such a society if not progressing, may be closer towards declining? See our debt and deficit problems. See and observe the problems in the Eurozone.

The Political Delusional Activity that is so easy to observe in this Referendum Exhibition Glass Bead Game Match is the major result here. The problem with politics is that much of it cannot be perceived directly by people, and hence these layers and layers of obfuscation and Ivory Tower Selective forces lead to the observations described above:-




Saturday, 28 May 2016

Alternatives To Certainty: A Bird In The Hand.


 
 ...and another one (Bullfinches are invariably found in pairs) in the bush!


Yesterday, a male Bullfinch above flew into a window, and stunned itself. Fortunately, it appeared only stunned and needed about 40 minutes to recover before flying away to a nearby apple tree with normal, strong flight returned and alertness in it's behaviour, restored.

Before then, I had picked it up and gone outside and held it in my hand in the sunshine until it had fully "woken up" while it seemed to doze off, at the same time as hoping it was merely stunned and not otherwise seriously injured. Well, it was wonderful to see such a beautiful creature so close and more so that it seemed to make a full recovery and fly away again. The above youtube clip is remarkably similar to my own experience, above, though I did not stroke the bird, merely providing a perch for it, in my hand and for some time a seat as it sat down for a good while too while it closed it's eyes and tried to recover from the stun or shock of it's impact. I remained calm though inwardly feeling consternation for such a bird, one of my favourites, in fact.

So I decided with this thought on my mind of such a beautiful creature to connect the experience with the current topic I noticed on the EU; afterall there's such little inspiration to be had from the channels of communication that so poorly serve the people in how our politics is conducted:-

1. Caroline Lucas was talking about people overestimating how democratic Westminster is.
2. Richard Dawkins was cited as suggesting his own ignorance is (he's actually aware of) is too high for people to really vote on this issue in a direct democratic vote ie Referendum.
3. Following on the daily status quo that "Remain" is the safe option" compared to "Leave" which is the essence of David Cameron's argument.

What I will say about the above: There's a lot of different things going on in what these people say. To briefly explain the arguments:-

1. Caroline Lucas is right: Westminster itself is not very democratic, but the argument she's really making is that for her particular arguments they deserve special status that is even less democratic so that they can't be modified as easily by voters, namely why she supports as a Green the EU.
2. Dawkins is it seems aware enough to assess his own state of ignorance and notice the low quality arguments in the news-media. But he fails to understand that ironically the process of Direct Democracy on the Subject as opposed to the People who espouse (supposedly for a range of subjects) is a positive experience for electorates to feedback on "democracy in action" directly. He also fails to appreciate that this activity promotes a higher trend of increase of knowledge on the subject and more pressure on the low quality arguments polluted by inverting the processes of conclusions and results. Namely polling presumes people already hold conclusions without recourse to results, so it's a question of massaging the message to assume the appearance that appeals to those people!!
3. And hence Cameron's "Devil's Trick" is to blind people to the actual EU Question = "EU Membership" not Economics.

  • Description: Above I have described three people's arguments.
  • Explanation: I've explained roughly the arguments used.
  • Arguments: They each make some statements to form an argument to persuade others of some conclusion they desire or deem good.
This leads us to the question: How do we truly know the value of the above however? Well for that we'd need to deduct as much of the facts as possible. This is a complex process. So much so that:-
  1. The complexity has limits to simplification.
  2. The logistics of deducting and researching for oneself is necessarily highly involved and demanding and of course may be impractical for communication at a massive scale.
  3. Where we can simplify we can make progress. Where we can't we have to rely on alternatives instead of "validation" we rely on "probability".
Hence the old cautionary phrase:-



In fact, Vote Leave have done everything possible it seems to me to ensure people think that Brexit is "a risk, because chances are that you (pl.) could lose everything."

Once people believe the frame of the question is this, then what David Cameron says sounds like the right answer...

... but it's the right answer to the wrong question! As per Roland Smith: Read The Question!

So people can save themselves time if they think and say these things with under a month until the voting day:-

  • "I don't know enough how to vote."
  • "They're all as bad as each other anyway."
  • "It won't change anything anyway if I vote."
Let's look at Caroline Lucas' argument on our own Westminster Politicians:-
  • "No Loss of Sovereignty" [Not Happening Argument]
  • "There May Be Some Loss of Sovereignty but it's very little." [Happening but insignificant (and not applicable to the UK) Argument]
  • "There is Some Loss of Sovereignty but it's worth it." [Happening and Significant and Applicable to the UK) but Positive]
  • "Sovereignty is overrated and besides there's nothing we can do about it." [It's Happened already whether or not it's positive or negative and is now "normal" or "the way the world works" / status quo - there is no alternative.
On Richard Dawkins argument:-
  • We've missed a Referendum on the previous major treaties, the problem is not a Referendum, it's not enough Referendums on subjects that are smaller and more apprehensible and applicable as and when they are passed for motion for democratic legitimacy by the people.
  • We've been in the EEC/EU for over 40 yrs, a long enough time for people to educate more people, so the problem is not the impossibility of knowing, it's the methods or failure of democracy to do just that! See previous.
  • His very argument that the Referendum should be an exlusive argument is indeed the very reason why he and so many others feel so ignorance: Because it is an exclusive argument under the current systemic failings of our politics in the UK, that led the UK into the EEC in the first place!
On David Cameron's argument:-
  • People voting in the EU Referendum: The big con trick being asked of you is to apparently vote for either one set of Westminster Pro-EU politicians or an alternative set of Westminster Anti-EU politicians and both of their fallacious arguments come a distant second as if this is a General Election.
  • This "Devil's Trick" by Cameron and Vote Leave is setting up the "One Bird In The Hand" Inductive Thinking in people to vote Remain.
  • One bird in the hand may seem to be "probably" better than speculating on two in the bush. But in fact the Sovereignty of the People of the UK does not belong to either the EU or Westminster!
  • This is indeed the question that is being asked in the EU Referendum as Roland Smith correctly points out.
  • Knowing that is the question, the answer is simple. What is the best reason to vote to Leave the EU?
 
Success for me was seeing the Bullfinch fly away back into the bush and not in anyone's hand, thankfully!