FLEXCIT: Changing The Political Reality

 How strange: Politics is taking on the same reality as "quantum observation".

In the previous posts I've struggled to find a way of "unifying details with concepts" in such a way that at any level of a debate "communication remains useful".

In many of the previous blog posts I've failed: Either due to lack of time to both organize thoughts and present them effectively or else I've reached the severe limits of my own slowly growing understanding; which has been conveyed instead of the actual veracity of the subject itself. "Shit happens": Many more mistakes than correct answers in all things; many possibilities - until we correctly observe one fact and it then defines a component of what we call "reality".

But it all depends on first becoming observable: Before then politicians can spin the reality and suggest "anything is possible". What do we agree on that is observable equally and repeatedly? And just as relevant what happens when that breaks down? Let's see.

Additionally most of the blogs I've written have been dealing with an environment where there is a lack of such conceptual cohesion; namely different observers are appearing to be observing different things when they talk about armies of details interacting aimlessly! The last two days has seen Andrew Neill very usefully erase some of the deceptions over:-

• Figures to describe how much legislation Norway adopts
• How bogus many figures relating to gains or loses of Brexit

If a number such as 3m jobs can be abused for over 10 years without being cleared up or again "Fax Democracy", again for over 10 years then we have some seriously basic and deeply fundamental problems in the representation of reality politicians are offering to people: If they cannot help people make democratic decisions, but hinder them, what use are they?

This may sound very "fanciful" presently, but we shall see. However with that first sentence, I have succeeded in verbalizing the core aim of this blog all along, if not it's full application - yet! Read it again, then continue.

In this blog I want demonstrate:-

• Provide examples of a "fragmented reality" of our debate on Brexit and the EU Referendum - a void of such "unity of thought".
• Such recent examples: Hugo Dixon, Civil Service, Peter Mandelson, Daniel Hannan, Matt Hancock, and David Cameron. As we'll see most of the Leave Campaigns too and unquestionably the Remain Campaign is so deluded and self-deceived it's no wonder they're making some progress deceiving Pro-EU voters who can be viewed via Will Straw and of course Danny Finkelstein is an especially slithery "EU Reform" advocate.

 Let's start.

1. Supranational "EU Reform"

 Aieee!! Cloud Storm at Bondi Beach, Sydney: A clear edge is observable between sunlight and darkness

In general any "reform" sounds like a positive action or decision to take. Something has gone slightly wrong; what was clear and bright has become clouded and dark. Surely "reform" can lead us back to the light again?

This is applied in politics so often but it's misapplied in the case of the EU because it's never clearly observed accurately as to what is the EU? We know from The Great Deception what it is. We know the next Treaty is to increase the Political nature of the EU: That is it's reality. We've seen under Fisheries how this really does exist in all the details and recorded history in pointing to this consistent trend.

Perhaps in all our arguments, they must start with defining this reality so that it narrows down all "possibilities"? And here we see that once we do do that, we remove a lot of so-called uncertainty fabricated by the politicians. That is not removing risks (yet), but it is defining clearly that in all likihood the UK is not going to be travelling in this direction. Our Prime Minister through much phony and fraudulent behaviour demonstrates this with his The best of both worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status in a reformed European Union.

 2. Deception & "Uncertainty"

Four Stages in a Bubble Creation

We can use the above idea of "bubbles" to demonstrate an intuitive feel for the progress of the UK's membership of the EU:-

1. Stealth Phase: Multiple evidence of deception of our government in the 1960's culminating with Heath's "No loss of Sovereignty nor Single Currency" merely a "Common Market" only.
2. Awareness Phase: It seems Margaret Thatcher became aware of this at the end of her PM time and was booted out of power consequentially via Howe and Heseltine amongst others.
3. Mania Phase: The crazy assertion that during Blair's time in office we might actually join the EURO, his intentions to be at the centre of Europe (the new paradigm of an end to boom and bust and signing the newly rebranded EU Constitution - the zenith of the EU as we'll likely see.
4. Blow off Phase: We're at the beginning of this, the first "denial" was with Greece but it was another illusion so we "return to normal" for the time being but the wide discrepancy between the valuation of EU membership and the deepening fragility with the center of the EU in the eurozone:-

"Independent experts estimate the benefits of being in the EU are worth £3,000 a year to the average UK household - due to lower prices and more jobs, trade and investment. (Source: CBI)"

Interestingly that last type of argument harks back to "the price of bread" if we don't remain a member of the EEC (Common Market), to which it actually went up. Again there is a deception at the root, here. It's fascinating watching the faces of the likes of Will Straw arguing these details, fabricating a reality, trying to make it exist in the minds of others, too. Likewise the Leave's figure of around 6-700£.

3. False Simple Narratives

 "Don't Mention Europe!"

At some point in the 1960's, a section of the senior tier of office of state of the UK decided that the UK was going to join the EEC (EU) and that people would be led to that decision. What we see with the this particular narrative which is an over-simplification of a complex and messy web of causative and stoicastic interactions is that the origin deception over the nature of the EU Supranational project has lead to continued uncertainty in British politics, as the EU added more and more Treaties and this spills out into some of the politicians.

But where it spills into the politicians, the symptoms as per John Cleese above, what is not explained is the actual illness itself, which again John Cleese above is suffering some form of mental breakdown which explains the "bad behaviour".

A simple way to confirm this is that the EU has dominated politics and influences all areas of British politics subsequently via the UK's own institutions, the same under Labour or Tories or a Tory-LibDem coalition. The idea that sides of the argument really matter is merely the narrative simplification that takes over from so much analysis, constructive criticism and reasoned, calm debate. Personalities such "Boris" or "Cameron" etc dominate instead of the actual arguments.

4. Paradigm Shift of Iterative Withdrawal

 There's glimmers of "informative learning" (productively) now the subject is experiencing high and higher exposure

 It's interesting to note that a lot of economists complain about risk, uncertainty, "could".

• google.co.uk/search?q=Brexit+could

Again if we go back to the original Supranational EU, we consider that we don't want to be a part of as Owen Paterson calls it "A new country called Europe," (though it has many challenges ahead to realize this future, ie it's full of even more uncertainty than Brexit). If we define this correctly then that leaves The Single Market (EEA) or European Economic Area and a gradual withdrawal over time from the EU upon leaving.

We see confidence is shaky, there is some de-stabilization, but this acknowledgement of the problem and it's nature allows us to consider a post-Brexit environment after this flux as a "facilitating environment" as we gradually lead to re-orientation with both a Single Market trade relationship with Europe (x31 members) and an increasingly global one too.

As is suggested the green line leads to a removal of uncertainty (loss of confidence and morale). Without acknowledging this what we have is our own government providing it's report Alternatives to membership: possible models for the United Kingdom outside the European Union framed entirely incorrectly that will sustain "uncertainty", Supranationalism, deception, false simple narratives: These concepts rule the details in debates endlessly in the legacy news-media. This surreal political unreality.

And supported in this delusion we have the Leave Campaigns:-

EU Referendum: an own goal

5. A Unified Model of Understanding

• Tier 1 = Democratic Choice between:-
• Tier 2 = Supranationalism (Remain) or Intergovernmentalism (Leave)
• Tier 3 = based on: Logical and Reasoned Arguments
• Tier 4 = linking policy Details with Concepts (T2).
• Tier 5 = The Complete Market Solution applied successfully to democracy for the first time in >40 years.

Tier 1 is all the work voters have to do as democratic citizens of the UK. All their decisions can be framed between Tier 2 the 2 alternative paradigms which can be effected as a successful paradigm shift via FLEXCIT using Tier 3 an iterative or gradual withdrawal from the EU via The Market Solution. This in turn is backed up by Tier 4 observable evidence of details of essential policy areas that in turn affect everyone in Britain in the past, the present and the future.

What is Tier 5? Reconnecting the British Political Reality to a democratic reality. A better way to make decisions for the nation?

Conclusions

What is becoming more observable is that a lot of the work in FLEXCIT is actually turning into political reality, several years later than when it was published. It might be worth compiling a list of these... If there's one thing in my opinion that will help, it's in providing a conceptual model that fits the details into a context that is conducive to a direct real democratic vote on it.

Any question that asks how you might vote, is worth plugging into this unity between the concepts and the details. Any detail will create accumulatively the concepts and the concepts will order the details.

In the next blog I want demonstrate:-

• Consolidate the examples of Fisheries in demonstrating how useful such a unity of thought can be to a specific policy, extensible in applying to the full range of the arguments across policies that make the total choice for voters comprehensible.

FLEXCIT: Back From The Future

• Tier 1 = "............................"
  
  
• Tier 2 = Conceptual Framework
  
  
• Tier 3 = Problem-Solving Process
  
  
• Tier 4 = Application
  
  
• Tier 5 = The (complete) Market Solution
  

In the previous blog FLEXCIT: A Paradigm Shift the key point was made that, to use a metaphor, "Brexit is a bridge - only". It is merely the evidence that it is legitimate (valid) and possible (viable) to withdraw from the EU. To quote Dr. RAE North in EU Referendum: suffering in silence:-

"By way of background, we are engaged in the political battle of the century, and to win it we need to do three things. Firstly, we need to convince enough voters that we need to leave the EU. Secondly, we need to offer them an alternative vision – one which is better than anything the EU has to offer. Thirdly, we have to be able to reassure people that moving from the EU to our alternative is practicable and safe. That is our so-called exit plan.

These three things I have previously described as the "three-legged stool". In my view, they are not optional. Together, they comprise the essential elements of the campaign. Without them, I am convinced that we cannot win this referendum.

What we don't need, therefore, is people of status and some prestige coming out of the woodwork, promoting ridiculous and totally unworkable ideas for an exit plan, and then undermining the work of those people (such as myself and all the other contributors to Flexcit) who have come up with a workable plan."

Effectively FLEXCIT/The Market Solution is the full context within which the solution (Brexit) is held between Problem and Outcome; and only one (but central) element of the full picture:

Incorrect/Zero Framing of the Problem:

Brexit: A small but pivotal part of the full story: NOT the full story!

What we see when the context/framing is not applied correctly is a list of declarative battles over what is the problem and what is the solution? Nobody apparently knows and both "sides of the argument" are apparently equivalent: They're not - they descend into low quality arguments as per Argument Abstraction:-

The Political Dark Ages Today: Exemplified by these "prestigious groups" AND The Economist

In Outcomes: The 20:80 Rule it was pointed out that most of the EU Referendum discussion and Brexit by implication is wasteful communication, "mountains of madness" in the legacy news-media and "piles of garbage" produced by Westminster politicians. The assertion was made that the Positive Vision as per Dr. RAE North,above, is predominantly the future creation of a genuine single market in which Britain plays a leading role amongst equals, due to initiating this change, not by default of dominating.

However there is another positive outcome preceding this one: "Which is which when all is said and done?" And that is the very process of holding a referendum is an opportunity to increase the quality of arguments and increase the positive engagement of people into the political decision making process itself.

If you've noticed our politicians for decades and in great volume have talked about "uncertainty" in our politics: They're the biggest source of this so-called "political disease" as per The Root Of All Uncertainty, both the above two sides represented/hand-picked in The Economist above are full of The Brexit Bullshit Sandwich.

In fact what we're already doing is starting to describe the problem of our EU Membership indirectly. But there is much much more to do to build up the argument to it's full completion:-

FLEXCIT: The sum of it's parts and more than the sum of it's parts