Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label CBI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CBI. Show all posts

Monday, 21 March 2016

Große Lüge - The Big Lie of Magic Money

Economic Modelling gives you...

The above is a clip from the  blaxploitation action comedy or comedy-spoof Black Dynamite, by watching it you see a sketch of "making it up as you go along" riffing on detective stories. Economic Modelling is perhaps a kind of detective exercise on the economy. Once the "chain of reasoning" gets going into rapid gear, it's perhaps hard to follow and hence become bogged down in the complex details; A loaded question or complex question fallacy:-
"Such questions may be used as a rhetorical tool: the question attempts to limit direct replies to be those that serve the questioner's agenda."
The Brexit Door blogs on this subject in The CBI/PWC ‘Cost of Brexit’ report,

"This morning all the talk has been about the report from the CBI into the implications for the UK economy on leaving the EU. I had rather hoped it would start to enliven real debate over the issues, but I’m afraid it won’t."
"It’s economic analysis is probably beyond question, I certainly won’t challenge its modelling. That is not where it’s problem lies. It’s real problem is that it simply analyses a situation which is never likely to exist. A straw man is built, and effectively knocked down (at great expense I would expect, knowing PWC’s eye watering hourly rates), simply to create a convenient story for the government and it’s Remain camp allies, notably the BBC who went big with it this morning I’m told."

"The CBI is openly Pro EU, so they make no pretence to impartiality here."

 Economic FUD amplified via "Große Lüge" - A Loaded Big Lie technique

There's a couple of techniques here included FUD which is becoming apparent all the time, the other one is: Große Lüge (Big Lie):-
A big lie (German: große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, about the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously."
We know from Decrypting: What is Babel-17? that Economics is a useful language of deception to use because as per 1997:-
  • "The words used in the argument are a foreign language."
  • "Strong passions"
  • "Most of us aren't well informed" 
The above cocktail is ripe for confusion and FUD to feed the Status Quo Effect. Given the stagnation in development of the arguments it's also clearly very effective given the same complaint is pointed out by people: "We don't know enough".


"CBI Director-General, Carolyn Fairbairn, has warned that leaving the EU would cause a serious shock to the UK economy, with a potential cost to UK GDP of £100 billion and 950,000 jobs by 2020 and negative echoes that could last many years after that."
"Under both PwC scenarios, UK living standards, GDP and employment are significantly reduced compared with staying. The analysis indicates a cost to the British economy of leaving of as much as £100 billion – the equivalent of around 5% of GDP - by 2020. Even in a scenario where a Free Trade Agreement with the EU is secured rapidly, the analysis indicates GDP could be 3% lower by 2020. GDP per household in 2020 could be between £2100 and £3700 lower, and the UK’s unemployment rate between 2 and 3 percentage points higher, than if the UK had remained in the EU. GDP growth in the years 2017-2020 could be seriously reduced – and possibly be as low as zero in 2017 or 2018." 

The CBI and "magic money"


The Brexit Door notices an interesting outcome however:-
"So why is the remain campaign and its supporters avoiding analysis on the Market Solution?"
"Well it’s hard to escape the conclusion that they are rather concerned that it cannot be easily rebutted because it is well researched and thought through. To draw attention to it would do more harm to their cause than good – so they, and the government, pretend simply that it doesn’t exist."
 The numbers in the CBI/PWC Report merely grow and grow as per the growing chains of reasoning from the loaded question in accordance with their uncertainty value:-




CBI/PWC focuses on Left-Hand-Side and ignores the Right-Hand-Side, like so many of the Leave Campaign, The Establishment and the Legacy News-Media

Instead what we have is Misdirection (magic) Money:-
Misdirection is a form of deception in which the attention of an audience is focused on one thing in order to distract its attention from another.
Managing the audience's attention is the aim of all theater, it is the foremost requirement of theatrical magic. Whether the magic is of a "pocket trick" variety, or, a large stage production in Las Vegas, misdirection is the central secret of all Magic.


 The Leave Campaign (Vote Leave) are proving to be David Cameron's Rabbit, the Dodgy Deal was the Hat.

The basis of the misdirection is the Polls and confessions of the Leave Voters themselves, apparently UKIP, Leave.EU and GO want:-
  • "Control Our Borders" (empty meme) removal of Freedom of Movement
  • Saving Loads of Money from Economic Membership
  • A Free Trade Agreement or Something Like the WTO
Vote Leave are similar:-
  • Bonfire of Redtape!
  • FTA like Canada has
  • EU will still buy our cars no matter what!
This allows the Remain and David Cameron deception to use their opponents own weight of fallible arguments against themselves:-


Imbalanced & Weak Arguments: Leave Campaign's own weight used against itself: "Control Our Borders": No! To Freedom of Movement! or "We Can Do So Much Better Than Norway or Switzerland" as "They Buy More Cars Than We Do!"

The Leave Campaign plays right into the hands of The Great Deception; it's not surprising it's been going since the early 1960's concerning the UK, at least. This leaves the intended picture of Brexit instead of The Market Solution:-

Edit 22/03/2016: City A.M. 21/03/2016:-
Major added those in favour of a Brexit were wrong to insist Britain could leave the EU and then rengotiate trade deals to its advantage.

"Their argument is that the EU needs the UK market more than we need theirs. This is at best disingenuous, more bluntly it is fantasy," he said.
If people referred to the arguments more, they would realize that Major describing the kind of Judo throw above and pointing out such arguments are "imbalances" that are so ripe for taking advantage of. The Deception is the focus on these bogus Brexit propositions aka "Big Bang" Brexit categories (LHS above, all of them). However the misdirection is NEVER to mention The Leave Alliance nor The Market Solution staged iterative withdrawal and secondly that these are themselves stages towards conditions more closely aligned to FTA or otherwise removing "EU Centric Political Integration" from "European Genuine Single Market" evolution.

If any Leave or undecided voters read this, remember the use of the opponents' arguments as Judo atst as Misdirection and the amplitude of FUD as Big Lie technique. The solution? Learn and find the arguments that: Discrīmen: Arguments have their own reasons.

Pro-EU Deception, The Intended Picture: Lie Big, Lie Frequently and use your opponent's arguments against themselves:-

 Big Lie: Brexit will cost you dearly, 100m, 1m jobs and 5% GDP to be "on top authority".

Sunday, 22 November 2015

The Columbo Method: Norway

"Oh Sir/Madame/Dr., just one more thing... ."

I'm sure most people are familiar with Lieutenant Columbo detective series on television and his famous/infamous method of uncovering the criminals or to be more accurate, his method in provoking them into uncovering themselves? Apart from his combination of initially appearing to be unassuming and bumbling to gain their mutual rapport and underestimation, he then uses that base to keep plugging a few questions before getting into their heads with suggestions and seeing if they change their story and then again repeating more questions from unexpected places. What's relied on in general is the lack of consistency of the villain's story when the Motive is clear. Columbo usually has to work out the Opportunity and Means from the villain themselves alongside his own detective work and evidence gathering.

Unassuming: Weakness or Strength?


Coming back to The Norway Option which has recently been highlighted in both Brexit For Beginners and  considered under the constructive filter of A Science Of Simplicity as per fulfilling those conditions for example reducing the "Brexit Choices Pie Piece" which then like dominoes knocks on removing and reduces other Pie Pieces which is exactly what we want for The Referendum Day Present Simple People's Choice. After all, blame the politicians for pushing >40yrs of membership into x1 day with poor explanation and development of the subject to the people all this time. And this is what Columbo is dealing with in the villains the audience is presented with: How to disentangle their deception.


We almost certainly will not "win" 2017, but if we hold to the above we cannot "lose", either

 In Dr. RAE North's Strategy ten: communication: at EUReferendum.com (see sidebar):-

"But there was something more to it – a lot more. What we were also seeing were the effects of "prestige". On the one side there were the three main party leaders, Wilson, Margaret Thatcher and Jeremy Thorpe, most of the business community and almost every newspaper – plus the BBC. On the other, as Kellner points out, there was "half the Labour party, most trade unions, Enoch Powell and the Scottish National party".

In truth, the issues hardly mattered. Not one in a thousand had any real idea of the political ambitions of the EEC. The majority were prepared to have their opinions handed down to them by people who were endowed with that magical property, "prestige". They were not going to argue with the prevailing wisdom.

Forty-plus years later, if anyone thinks things are going to be any different, they are being delusional. In the information game, one just has to put a big name newspaper report against a blog post (which may be better written, more accurate and with more detail) and the newspaper will win every time.  Simply compare the reach the idiot Boris Johnson with that of lesser mortals." 
 Putting the key evidence together: Opportunity & Means

LeaveHQ also ran another blog post on The Norway Option in reflection of the latest Pro-EU Membership argument to accuse this option as "beneath Britain" in We'd rather have the Norway Option than Stockholm Syndrome which is a top quality play on words (wish I'd said that) as per Stronger In Europe's leader Lord Stuart Rose:-

"no credible alternative has been articulated. Following the path of Norway and Switzerland — who pay for access to the single market but have no influence over the regulations they must accept — would weaken our control over our economic affairs." ~ British Business must not stay silent in the Brexit debate - FT.com, Lord Stuart Rose
"For all practical purposes, Norway is part of the union, but has no influence. Norwegians must wait in the corridor when decisions are being made that affect them. This violates the entire idea of the enlightenment project and the European integration project. Here, everybody should be equal participants in the exercise of popular sovereignty...  No alternative project is in sight in the age of globalisation. With all its flaws and shortcomings, the EU is here to stay. It is ‘the only game in town’...Norwegian citizens have become second-class European citizens... democratic self-harm since our form of affiliation is based on choices that could have been different, and that would have been less harmful in a democratic perspective."  ~ Norway’s rejection of EU membership has given the country less self-determination, not more - LSE Blog, Erik O. Eriksen



"A Britain choosing this track would, in other words, keep paying, it would be “run by Brussels”...Without full European Union membership, however, it would have given up on having a say over EU policies: like Norway, it would have no vote and no presence when crucial decisions that affect the daily lives of its citizens are made... Norway and Switzerland, heavily integrated as we both are in the EU, have simply chosen between the two currently existing options for staying in the outer circle." ~ We pay, but have no say: that’s the reality of Norway’s relationship with the EU - The Guardian Espen Barth Eide
"Some people arguing for Britain to leave the European Union ... have particularly pointed to the position of Norway saying that is a good outcome, Cameron said.

"Norway actually pays as much per head to the EU as we do, they actually take twice as many per head migrants as we do in this country but of course they have no seat at the table, no ability to negotiate."  Cameron admits Norway no model for Britain in Europe ~
Euractiv, David Cameron

 “We [Norway] are fully integrated into the EU single market as members of the EEA, but what we don’t have is the right to vote on those regulations that are incorporated into our law when they are made by the council of ministers.”

We now have the Norwegian Europe minister himself telling us to get a grip, get real and get involved in shaping Europe. Little England cannot be an option,” Wilding said. ~ Britain will lose influence in the world if it quits the EU, says Norway - The Guardian, Vidar Helgesen

Mr Brende today insisted ‘Britain can have more influence inside the EU than outside’. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘On the directives from the EU, we implement those in Norway. ‘We are one of the countries in Europe that are the fastest ones in doing so because the single market is so important for us. ‘Our arrangement being part of the European Economic Area is that we have to implement all the EU directives. ‘We are not around the table when these are discussed in Brussels.’ He said Britain could be a ‘no nonsense’ voice in Brussels on cutting red tape and regulation. ~ We implement Brussels rules faster than anyone, Norway warns UK Eurosceptics who want to copy Scandinavians outside EU The Daily Mail, Børge Brende


"Of course, we must tell the truth about the 3 million jobs, 25,000 companies, £200bn of annual exports and £​450bn of inward investment linked to Europe; and how the “Britzerland” or Norwegian alternatives (even Norwegians oppose the Norwegian option) leave us subject to EU rules, but denied a vote in shaping them." ~ The truly patriotic British view on Europe? We must lead from within - The Guardian, Gordon Brown
"Excellent... excellent..."

"This works for Norway’s economy, built on plentiful natural resources and with a far smaller population than Britain, but would be no good for an economy as complex as ours.
 

In return, Norway, under prime minister Erna Solberg, is the 10th-highest contributor to the EU budget, but it lacks any clout over EU decision-making because it has no seat at the table: no commissioner, no MEPs and no ministers attending European Council meetings." ~ Five reasons for staying within a reformed EU - John Cridland is CBI director-general The Daily Telegraph, John Cridland


"Norway has seen "extensive Europeanisation" in the past 20 years despite being outside the EU, a government-commissioned report says.
While it sees the economic benefits as largely positive, the report expresses concern at the political consequences as Norway is bound, in practice, to adopt EU policies "without voting rights".
 

Mr Sejersted calls this a "great democratic deficit... but this is a kind of national compromise since Norway decided it did not want to join the EU"
Some British eurosceptics, including Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan, have argued that the UK should be like Norway, outside the EU, but according to this report Norway is both "outside and inside" the EU and just "one or two steps behind".


 "Fax-Democracy", 2001: The source of origin itself
"The EEA gives it access to the EU's internal market and its “four freedoms”: freedom of movement for goods, services, people and capital. But this comes at a price. The Norwegians are obliged to accept every single piece of internal-market legislation, and they have no vote on these laws...
 

All this has led many to conclude that Norway would actually be better off joining the EU. At least it would have some say over all the legislation it is forced to adopt. Jens Stoltenberg, leader of Norway's opposition Labour Party, bemoans his country's “fax democracy”, in which officials sit by the fax machine waiting for the latest directive from Brussels to arrive." ~ The Norwegian option: Those strange European countries that have kept out of the European Union The Economist, 2004 - Jens Stoltenberg
  
Nick Clegg: 'Groomed' for the EU
"And heading to the exit would be the surest way to diminish the UK. Because what then? Become the next Norway or Switzerland? Advocates of repatriation point to these nations and say they have the best of both worlds: success to Europe’s markets without an assault on their sovereignty.

But these countries sit and wait for bills and directives from Brussels, duly paying their bit, changing their laws, but with absolutely no say over Europe’s rules. No political representation, no national voting rights, no voice at all.

They work by fax democracy: you find your instructions on the machine in the morning, and you follow them. They have no meaningful sovereignty in the EU. Norway has had to implement three quarters of all EU legislation, including the Working Time Directive.

To go down that route would be a catastrophic loss of sovereignty for this nation. I want better for the UK, and our other allies want better for us too. They pay into the EU Budget: for the specific programmes they participate in and for development grants to new member states."
~ Nick Clegg EU budget speech in full - recorded in Politics.co.uk, Nick Clegg
I tried to read a lot of books, for enjoyment and for education. I've not read a lot of detective fiction genre, but I have got to say, writing up this particular blog post has been exceedingly enjoyable! The thrill of the detective clues and linking up all the bits of evidence, I can see why/how people get hooked on this genre! What's noticeable:-
  • Prestige of all the contributors hammering home how aweful Norway is
  • Visibility of a free pass in the press and no fact checking done since <2001!
  • Motive: This is the key: They're all Pro-EU big-shots who buy into the EU; particularly the last 2: The big cheese in NATO and Nick Clegg the model EU student in British Politics.
In my quick research online I only found x1 article that mentioned The Bruges Group paper The Norway Option above in contention to the prestige of all the above speakers who get a free pass in the legacy news-media; despite google results bringinig it up on the front page along with Jonathan Lindsell's Civitas work on The Norway Option:-

The Norwegian Way: A case study for Britain’s future relationship with the EU


New study – the Norwegian model is a viable Brexit option: 13 February 2015 by Jonathan Lindsell

Norway itself actually provides plenty of information:- Norway Government: 6 The EEA and Norway’s room for manoeuvre and EFTA itself via Decision-Making and Decision-Shaping.


























The Boiling Frog covers this some more: EU Referendum: EEA Ruled by Fax? Iceland Said No as well as White Wednesday's useful bookmark resources for The Norway Option: Some Bookmarks and of course it comprises merely one part of FLEXCIT:

"And  one point, he  adds, "which  is  almost  always overlooked",  is  that  the  founding  charter  of  the  EEA,  the  Lisbon  Treaty, enshrines  the  EU's  jurisdiction  as  it  stood  on  2  May  1992.  It  provides  no mechanism  to  impose  on  Norway,  Iceland  or  Liechtenstein  the  extensions  of EU power  that  have  happened  in  subsequent  treaties,  notably  in  the  fields  of
employment  law,  social  policy  and  justice  and  home  affairs.  It  is  up  to  these countries to  decide whether  they wish  to alter  their  own law  to keep pace with the EU in these areas."




































 FLEXCIT p.94: Two-Pillar System: Multiple EFTA-EU contacts at early stage of legislative process

"In  fact,  this  phenomenon  is  more  commonly  called "fax  democracy" a label coined by Norwegian Prime Minister, Jens Stoltenberg, in February 2001. He  was  seeking  to  promote  full  EU  membership  to  his  reluctant  countrymen, who  had  already  twice  rejected  membership." p.
We've finally completed our detective work: We've seen how prestige of these hugely important individuals gives them free access to the legacy news-media and then we see a huge component of the Norwegian Pro-EU Political Class and the British Pro-EU Political Class dominating the debate because of their shared motives to prevent both Norwegian people and British people in seeing how disruptive to further EU Integration The Norway Option for Britain would be.

From the various additional areas of research we see this:-


The Authority of the prestigious individuals allows their Pro-EU motive to manipulate public understanding of the Brexit options. What's interesting is this is backed up by polls of Norwegians themselves to add to our previous poll on British people in A Political Mirror: People:-







































Despite all the prestige and pomp and power: The people hold the power in Norway over EU representation and they don't see either the dangers of non-membership nor the riches of representation in the EU Political Union promised and threatened by the politicians, equally.

The politicians have exerted vast powers of influence and political persuasion and propaganda to convince people to not vote for The Norway Option, apart from infrequent and perhaps calculated concessions such as Dear Britain, there is life outside the EU. Brexiteers and so-called "eurosceptics" may like to take note of the Pro-EU's efforts and equally anyone else might like to question their received arguments from authority, too.

Combining all the quotes by the Pro-EU on The Norway Option and the people who make them provides an impressive pattern from which to include in our arguments as demonstration of "changing the story" and inaccuracies and inconsistencies in the "story" growing the more the fabricated story is retold and retold to us. Just like Columbo, we can rely on the liar to trip themselves up over their own lies, when we persist in asking:-

"Just One More Thing..."