Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label Lucy Thomas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lucy Thomas. Show all posts

Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Strange Trails

Lord Huron - Strange Trails: "Meet Me In The Woods"

I like to take Birthday celebrations quite seriously if possible, in that the essence of the celebration, for me, is in a word: "Timeliness", not necessarily the quality of the actual present. For my brother's Birthday, this year I'd ordered some things that needed to be put together in a box and presented. But as usual, with the work week it would have to be given on the week-end a few days late. So, while generally shopping around for something to give on the day, I heard the above song being played in a shop. The interesting thing with music, is that it can powerfully strike you in an instant: "This is good!". Anyway, long-story-short: I bought the above album Lord Huron - Strange Trails gave it to my brother with a card and it actually turned out to be a real hit with him; giving a lot of happiness, positive energy and continues to do so. I don't think I've ever been successful like that with music before; "there's no accounting for taste" but I recommend the above album, given it's happy record so far!

In Fatal Car Crash: Two Dead After Car Accident Lucy Thomas of Deputy Director of "Britain Stronger in Europe" (BSE for laughs!) made the claim that inversely to the above contention:-
"Because we don't know what out would look like."
Implicit in the above blog without explaining it, purposefully, was that effectively, if you were to boil-down the essence, the "music" of her argument it is the above "Negative Outlook": According to Dr. Raj Persaud, she might be suffering a bad case of ANTS (Automatic Negative Thoughts)! Do you like the sound of that music? I know I don't and here's why: The reason this imho is the "real sound" being played is because her arguments as with so many of the Pro-EU arguments rely on increasing the volume on this "music" so that it drowns out any other choices and tastes in "music" that people may prefer to hear. It's music that is not intended to be "enjoyed". Why is this so important? Because as soon as the room fills with the cacophony of arguments all with different people clamouring for their preferred music you have a definite result: The question of what music to play becomes divisive - itself. And once that verdict is reached and is observable to all; the whole experience is considered negative, "Let's just put back on the music that we were all listening to before we all started falling out with each other." Aka as explained the Status Quo Effect kicks in.

update 22:00 GMT: (another match found): Yes, the EU is flawed. That's exactly why we can’t just all walk away "For the next one or two years, any facts with be lost in a blizzard of spin and counter spin, black will be white and up will be down."

 The Happiness Hypothesis - Jonathan Haidt

The upcoming Referendum is probably going to feel like to a lot of people, like a journey such as Jonathan Haidt recounts in The Happiness Hypothesis: Chapter 1: The Divided Self:-
I first rode a horse in 1991, in Great Smoky National Park, North Carolina. I’d been on rides as a child where some teenager led the horse by a short rope, but this was the first time it was just me and a horse, no rope. I wasn’t alone—there were eight other people on eight other horses, and one of the people was a park ranger—so the ride didn’t ask much of me. There was, however, one difficult moment. We were riding along a path on a steep hillside, two by two, and my horse was on the outside, walking about three feet from the edge. Then the path turned sharply to the left, and my horse was heading straight for the edge. I froze. I knew I had to steer left, but there was another horse to my left and I didn’t want to crash into it. I might have called out for help, or screamed, “Look out!”; but some part of me preferred the risk of going over the edge to the certainty of looking stupid. So I just froze. I did nothing at all during the critical five seconds in which my horse and the horse to my left calmly turned to the left by themselves.

As my panic subsided, I laughed at my ridiculous fear. The horse knew exactly what she was doing. She’d walked this path a hundred times, and she had no more interest in tumbling to her death than I had. She didn’t need me to tell her what to do, and, in fact, the few times I tried to tell her what to do she didn’t much seem to care. I had gotten it all so wrong because I had spent the previous ten years driving cars, not horses. Cars go over edges unless you tell them not to. Human thinking depends on metaphor. We understand new or complex things in relation to things we already know.

For example, it’s hard to think about life in general, but once you apply the metaphor “life is a journey,” the metaphor guides you to some conclusions: You should learn the terrain, pick a direction, find some good travelling companions, and enjoy the trip, because there may be nothing at the end of the road. It’s also hard to think about the mind, but once you pick a metaphor it will guide your thinking. Throughout recorded history, people have lived with and tried to control animals, and these animals made their way into ancient metaphors. Buddha, for example, compared the mind to a wild elephant:-

Working together: Gaining your Elephant's trust!

In Of Democracy and Time Dilation we looked at the metaphor of making decisions according to "compression" and "tension". In my opinion, too much tension which is "chronic" because it is "unknown" leads to "anxiety" and that then leaves us in Argumentum Ad Infinitum territory. However the opposite is true too also, and this gives the Pro-EU FUD more substance than it deserves: Too much "compression" is also negative. This "second-gear" outlook or to catchphrase UKIP's message of "Splendid Isolation" acts in tandem to produce the observed Fatal Car Crash: Two Dead After Car Accident . A video that is quite stirring that manages to capture these two "Doors Of Deception":-


Chimpanzees constrained in a lab for 30yrs: Seeing the outside for the first time...

I think what is so stirring about the above, moment of time captured, in this video is the "flash of recognition" on the Chimpanzees faces, the balance of emotions and perceptions starting with a tightening of apprehension but expanding into a joyful happiness...

Unfortunately, there must be a cautionary principle even when celebrating this particular, "Happy Ending". A good short story that captures this is R.K. Narayan's Malgudi Days: The Blind Dog: It's a very entertaining and masterfully written short-story that I would not wish to spoil; but like the above music also highly recommend!

With no "mental map" the senses can't interpret "what is possibly beyond".

So far as per The Great Deception, the focus has been on the problems, "The Cage", then we've started to look at "the possibility of the cage door being opened", today. This we really are referring to as The Referendum Process itself as "The Cage Door". This in itself, requires a lot of discussion, some which Pete North (see blogroll) provides in Referendum ruminations, a lot of hope and opportunity: The building of Anticipation up to "The Big Day" (as my father used to mock me and call the first day back at school!). I can't help but remember the pictures of the Scottish Referendum the day after; their Dissipation:-

Unexpected Event: Negative (not Positive) Dissipation

Happiness: Achieving our purposes?
As with the music, I think these pictures, speak for themselves, we can intuit immediately their meaning. But the cautionary tale is not understanding our purposes and so we end up feeling as if "The Cage Door momentarily opened has been slammed shut on us." What needs to be done is a clear vision of not just "The Cage" or "The Cage Door" but "Beyond The Cage" "outside it" as Lucy Thomas says above.
I feel sad for the above emotional experience of the Scottish people who wanted to experience a political 'quake of some positive kind. It would be too much to try to summarize so much here. But fortunately a real master at this already provides such a "narrative": Dr. RAE North (see blogroll) writes in language we can comprehend: EU Referendum: back to basics :-

Building foundations = building our purpose, beginning with the basics
In terms of our "no" campaign, with a little help from our friends, I have been gradually able to whittle down the essence of our "intellectual foundation" to three words: problem; solution; and outcome. Now mixing metaphors outrageously, I jump from foundations to three-legged stools. I liken these words to the legs of a three-legged stool. They effectively constitute our "offer" to the public, upon which we will ask them to vote "no".
 Here we've taken a different route to the same conclusion: "Cage", "Cage Door", "Beyond The Cage". Here I've tried to use an emotional approach to understanding. These are not merely highfalutin sales pitches. Only today we're seeing the seeds of "negative dissipation" being planted by the various "Leave/Out/UKIP" groups: EU Referendum: lured into the trap where the media is no help to us either from Pete North (see blogroll): A grown up referendum debate is too much to ask of our media and in conversation on LBC Radio, Pete is very articulate albeit trying to chew out a lot of complicated interactions altogether!!

However we do gain rare glimpses of what "Beyond The Cage" looks like and this blog's theme is a diversion from the negative to the positive: Happiness and understanding our Purposes better through understanding that we often behave in complexes of actions between that of our "Elephant" (Emotional) and our "Mahut" (Intellectual). But time is the ultimate frame of reference for us all: "The Cage Door"  will be left open for a short and limited period of time leading up to the Referendum allowing people to drive the political process for the first time in >40yrs; not the professional politicians: It's up to us to find out what "Beyond The Cage" really does look like, and start doing so now. White Wednesday (see blogroll):- Globalisation is killing the EU. Bring it on

"The will to win is important, but the will to prepare is everything."

Even within the News-Media BBC show The Daily Politics with Owen Paterson we gain a glimpse amid the pea soup fog of Westminster-Media dysfunctional Politics, with yet another reference to "Beyond The Cage" = A Leap Into The Unknown" (Lord Rose, one of our cage-keepers):-

Owen Paterson: A Torchbearer in the pea soup fog of The Westminster-Media Bubble

Be positive, it may feel "strange" but it's not a leap if you spread your "wings of knowledge"; it's a flight of freedom:-
 "If god had wanted humanity to fly (s)he would have given us..."


Monday, 12 October 2015

Fatal Car Crash: Two Dead After Car Accident

A staple of news-media reporting

I remember reading some convincing advice when reading around some scientific studies on "Happiness". It might have been from Martin Seligman writing about Positive Psychology, but I can't exactly remember, now. A couple of useful headlines included, ensure you have a "good commute" to work as it disproportionately (probably cumulatively stacks) effects your "happiness ratings" (iirc: Using a bleeper, and self-recording surveys). Another one was: "Watch less News on TV" or indeed in the News-Media altogether.

 "There's no news, like bad news." ~ Jonathan Pryce, Tomorrow Never Dies

In fact the News generally follows the "Tension-Relief" model: "Heavy-Beating music intro." and grave reporting (stern faces, low tone of voice) on the serious consequences of the day, then ending with the "uplifting sports news" (smiles and higher pitch of voice) and ending with the "chancey weather forecasts".

In printed newspapers the structure requires a car-crash story then some padding between the next "shocking story" so the effect of overloading x2 "shocking stories" together does not neutralize/dull the impact.

"Some viewers may find the following pictures distressing."
A friend of mine made the good point that "The News" might afterall simply be called "Bad News." That all said, there's no question roads are one of the most dangerous situations in everyday life and educating on strict road safety is a good thing. Looking at the statistics from The Department For Transport: Reported Road Casualties in Great Britain: Main Results :-
"There were 1,775 reported road deaths in 2014, an increase of 4% compared with 2013. The 1,775 road deaths in 2014 is the third lowest annual total on record after 2012 and 2013. There were 45 per cent fewer fatalities in 2014 than a decade earlier in 2005."
 Reporting Bias: Does positive, abstract news sell?
  • There was a total of 194,477 casualties of all severities in reported road traffic accidents during 2014, the first increase in overall casualties since 1997.
  • A total of 146,322 personal-injury road traffic accidents were reported to the police in 2014. Of these accidents, 1,658 resulted in at least one fatality.

Looked at statistically, there's actually "positive news". Of interest was "pedestrian" input into increases between 2013-14: Perhaps news channels would do well to link these findings with the incidental accidents as they occur and are reported in the news? Risk of death and transportation:-
The lifetime risk of dying in a transport accident is remarkably high - with most of the risk coming from road traffic accidents. While the risk of dying in a road accident in any year in the UK approaches 1 in 20,000, the lifetime risk is 1 in 240. In the Ukraine it is 1 in 80. 
By population as opposed to number of miles/km travelled. The point being made here is that these numbers can be used as information in these "car crash stories" as vehicles (pardon the pun) to bullet-point safe-driving reminders to road-users and indeed to pedestrians too. Then it turns the story from a negative tragedy story to a potentially positive reflection on a tragedy story.


Avoid News Towards a Healthy News Diet By Rolf Dobelli
News misleads. Take the following event (borrowed from Nassim Taleb). A car drives over a bridge, and the bridge collapses. What does the news media focus on? The car. The person in the car. Where he came from. Where he planned to go. How he experienced the crash (if he survived). But that is all irrelevant. What's relevant? The structural stability of the bridge. That's the underlying risk that has been lurking, and could lurk in other bridges. But the car is flashy, it's dramatic, it's a person (non-abstract), and it's news that's cheap to produce. News leads us to walk around with the completely wrong risk map in our heads. So terrorism is over-rated. Chronic stress is under-rated. The collapse of Lehman Brothers is overrated. Fiscal irresponsibility is under-rated. Astronauts are over-rated. Nurses are under-rated.
  • No.1: News misleads us systematically.
  • No.2: News is irrelevant.
  • No.3: News limits understanding
  • No.4: News is toxic to your body.
  • No.5: News massively increases cognitive errors.
  • No.6: News inhibits thinking.
  • No.7: News changes the structure of your brain.
  • No.8: News is costly.
  • No.9: News sunders the relationship between reputation and achievement.
  • No.10: News is produced by journalists.
  • No.11: Reported facts are sometimes wrong, forecasts always.
  • No.12: News is manipulative.
This point concerning Fear was made in Christopher Booker and Richard North's book: Scared To Death:-
"While a number of these scares have been food-related, an equal number are not. However, Booker and North suggest that for a problem to be inflated to generalised scare level it usually satisfies a number of conditions. Primary amongst them is that the perceived threat must be to everyone - a condition that only afflicts specific groups does not becomes a scare in the same way. The media become interested if the threat is to all..."
Confirmation Bias: Most people's unreported journeys - "Pass Go: Collect £200!"

We're reminded, again, of the importance of building "the right map in our heads" as per The Greatest Political Problem of Our Time or else we'll continue along The Road To The European Union and unfortunately like the EUROZONE members fall into a kind of "ant mill" as per Argumentum Ad Infinitum .

The irony of debates on EU / Single Market implications to "British Car Manufacturing"
Lucy Thomas, Deputy Director of Britain Stronger in Europe, was asked what the problem is with leaving the EU and she responded: "Because we don't know what out would look like."

But the row started when Ms Thomas insisted that car manufacturer such as Nissan and Toyota would reconsider their investment in the UK if we left the European Union.
We've covered this previously, it's an example of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) . It's a powerful tool of the Status Quo Effect which Dr. RAE North writes about in FLEXCIT: The Definitive EU Exit Plan For Britain: Chapter - 3.8 Protecting The Single Market, p.49-50:-

Primarily, the counter-attack highlighting the adverse consequences of withdrawal has been based on economic arguments, but with a strong reliance on fear, uncertainty and doubt (known  as FUD).

Typical of  the genre was an article in the Observer newspaper in late 2012. Leaving the EU, it said:

... will be a disaster at every level. Britain's mass car industry will head to low-cost countries that have remained in the EU. Much other manufacturing will follow; Airbus production will migrate to Germany and France ... The financial services industry will be regulated on terms set in Brussels and be powerless to resist. British farmers, who have prospered under the Common Agricultural  Policy,  will find they become dependent on whatever mean-spirited British system of farm support that replaces it. Farms will survive by industrial farming, devastating the beloved English countryside.

This FUD has been a characteristic of pro-EU campaigns for some decades. The fear exploits the status quo effect which is a significant phenomenon in all referendums, where the innate conservatism of the electorate can weigh heavily against  change,  allowing  the  pro-EU  side  to  enjoy  as  much  as  an  inbuilt  20-point advantage.



 "FUD, FUD... glorious FUD!" ~ Dr. RAE North (Sept. 2014, Dawlish)

Interestingly the above quote is from the News-Media, The Observer, 12 November, 2012. And here is LBC Monday 12th October 2015 in a debate concerning the Car Industry and not correcting the difference between The Single Market and The Political Union. This is another case of the sort of "infinity loop" we mentioned above, and a case of a failure Of Democracy and Time Dilation .

LBC:-
But Richard Tice, a co-founder of Leave.EU, insisted she was both out-of-touch and misinformed.
Unfortunately he falls right into "Lying Lucy" 's trap of arguing as How about a nice game of chess? on "Economic Brexit" grounds/context/frame-of-reference as per Dr. RAE North's Brexit: none of their business as we pointed out in Lakshmi: Goddess of Prosperity (1) "The Dismal Science" is a bottomless-pit of numbers to argue over: EU Referendum: the inexhaustible stupidity of Ukip
As to the booklet as a whole, we find the BBC (edited screen grab – top) offering its debunking slot to "Lying Lucy" – otherwise known as Lucy Thomas, campaign director for the Europhile Business for New Europe.

Fortunately for us, Lucy is not very bright. But even she was able to work out that Ukip's arguments did not add up. Unfortunately, Lucy is not alone. There is every sign that some of the more advanced Europhiles are getting their act together. In what it to be a long campaign, the Ukip case offered today will be comprehensively shredded – it is that full of holes.

Pete North (see blogroll) summarizes these arguments: The ridiculous fearmongering of europhiles.


"This is the kind of scaremongering we will see repeated ad nauseam (Argumentum Ad Infinitum)."

If the news-media are looking for a terrible "car-crash story" to run with tomorrow as their front-page shocker story then the tragic accident that occurred when Lucy Thomas, travelling in her silver EU, well over the speed-limit veered off course and into the oncoming Richard Tice's blue Brexit, in this "Car Crash Interview":-

 "Fatal Car Crash: Two Dead After Car Argument"

 But they'd be reporting more rigorously if they additionally in conjunction:-