A Map Argument: Why Not?

1-page map for arguments on the UK's EU Referendum: Remain or Leave

1. 41 Years since the last Referendum in 1975

One of the basic facts about the 2016 Referendum, is the length of time it's taken for the politicians to "allow" the UK Electorate a direct vote on membership. 41 years. If there's any basic fact that guides how to vote it's that 41 years, 59 years of age and 9 Major New EU Treaties without a vote:-

Chronological View of EU Treaties:-

• Treaty on European Union (Consolidated version 2012)
• Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (Consolidated version 2012)
• Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community (Consolidated version 2012)
• Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union (2012)
• Treaty of Accession of Croatia (2012)
• Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union (2010)
• Treaty on European Union (Consolidated version 2010)
• Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (Consolidated version 2010)
• Treaty on European Union (Consolidated version 2008)
• Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (Consolidated version 2008)
• Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union (2007)
• Treaty of Lisbon (2007)
• Treaty of Accession of the Republic of Bulgaria and Romania (2005)
• Treaty establishing the European Community (Consolidated version 2006)
• Treaty on European Union (Consolidated version 2006)
• Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe (2004)
• Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe (draft 2003)
• Treaty of Accession of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia (2003)
• Treaty establishing the European Community (Consolidated version 2002)
• Treaty on European Union (Consolidated version 2002)
• Treaty of Nice (2001)
• Treaty establishing the European Community (Consolidated version 1997)
• Treaty on European Union (Consolidated version 1997)
• Treaty of Amsterdam (1997)
• Treaty of Accession of Austria, Finland and Sweden (1994)
• Act amending the Protocol on the Statute of the European Investment Bank empowering the Board of Governors to establish a European Investment Fund (1993)
• Agreement on the European Economic Area (1992)
• Treaty establishing the European Community (Consolidated version 1992)
• Treaty on European Union (1992)
• Single European Act (1986)
• Schengen Convention (1985)
• Treaty of Accession of Spain and Portugal (1985)
• Treaty of Greenland (1984)
• Treaty of Accession of Greece (1979)
• Treaty amending certain provisions of the Protocol on the Statute of the European Investment Bank (1975)
• Treaty amending certain financial provisions (1975)
• Treaty of Accession of Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom (1972) 

The Trend of Powers is unidirectional as they can only be under EU Treaty Rules

Our General Elections were already a duopoly between Labour and Tories for the majority of the last Century and now even less vote on our own Self-Governance by the people.

The failure to hold a Referendum sooner than 41 years is merely a symptom itself of lack of democracy in the UK due to our ruling Establishment's monopoly on power away from the people.

Hence the EU Referendum is a Political Choice first and foremost and hence a Political Argument in nature.

This crucial definition is important to make: The EUropean Union (EU) is not Europe, it's not the Single Market, it's not International Law: It's a clear argument between:-

• Political Executive and Legislative and Judiciary and Monetary in the EU
• Political Executive and Legislative and Judiciary and Monetary in the UK

2. Understanding Remain(If Not? Then What?)

If we break down the EU Political Union:-

• Why? The history of Supranationalism as per The Great Deception

• How? Reading the official document by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office; FCO 30/1048: Sovereignty & The European Communities it is clear that the UK Government in the 1960's-70's deceived the UK People into joining not a Common Market but a Supranational organization. 

• Who? The Federalist ambitions and end-goal of the current EU is laid out in the document: The Fundamental Law of the European Union. It is to create a new "country" called Europe, so this is who you are voting for to vote for Remain.

• What? Where? When? The EU is planning a New Treaty for the Eurozone to increase it's power even further on Monetary before further again Politically: Completing Europe's Economic & Monetary Union.

The first thing I would establish when considering the EU Referendum argument is:-

Question: "Have you read all the above and understood all the above and support all the above?"

If so, I would be interested in your answers. Secondly I would be interested in you demonstrating your understanding and reasoning for supporting the above. I would also be interested in your opinion as to why in the UK the major actors in the public domain who are allocated the greatest seriousness and air-time do not categorize, nor define the EU Membership question as above, a core political project for "Ever Closer Union"?

If, the UK is not a member of the EURO, not a member of Schengen and as above the next major EU Treaty is to treat the EUROZONE as it's core priority to resolve this crisis; then why is the UK a member? And why is the UK not planning an alternative relationship with the EU? In such a case it may pay to look at what the Leave question looks like:-

3. Why Leave?

• Why? If we look at The Harrogate Agenda, to summarize it's about the right to Self-Govern.

Now this Core Argument is illustrated no better than in the Pro-EU officially nominated campaign group itself and even in it's name and it's own colours!

The Fundamental Deception at the heart of the EU Supranational idea is I think more or less above. The excuse given is that "Pooling Sovereignty" must be done to be able to increase "collective power" and/or "Subsidiarity" allows nations to retain their powers. But observation is consistent: The EU has been divisive in the UK and it's because of the above by the likes of BSE: Mixing where political power is held and by whom and hence how it is represented compromises democratic representation. If the UK is not an EU member then it must be held in the UK Parliament. Any problems there must be considered. But not only this, with the rise of globalization, the Single Market technical standards are now made not in Westminster Parliament nor in the EU Parliament but in hundreds of global bodies:-

These increasingly feed into the Single Market:-

Quoting FLEXCIT: The Market Solution: 10.1 The EU role in global governance p.198:-

"Nevertheless, despite the activity of the EU at global level, there is a perverse effect arising from globalisation. As more and more issues are addressed at global level, the EU is losing control over its own regulatory agenda. More than 80 percent of the EEA acquis (and therefore the EU's Single Market legislation) falls within the ambit of existing international organisationsand is thus potentially amenable to global regulation."

Now looking at the Government's counter claims in their pamphlet:-

1. As previous blog IMF, FUD & JENGA we already suffer accumulation and political arrears for "years of uncertainty".
2. An "Off-The-Shelf" Solution already exists, replacing EU/EEA with EFTA/EEA: The Leave Alliance Grows In Support by Semi-Partisan Politics. 
3. Following EU Rules is in fact under the EEA acquis; EU Referendum: the EEA acquis following global rules and being represented on those global bodies directly. The supporting arguments: Payment is not an issue and nor is Freedom of Movement concerning the Central Argument: Political independence of our decision-making processes. They are secondly time-modified subject to the actual Political result of the EU Referendum itself.
4. It does fulfill the criteria for clear political separation at the same time as trading through the single market.

This leaves us where we actually are in the arguments today:-

Why does it seem that there are political processes and mass media accommodation of exclusively narrowly sanctioned ideas and concepts, whereas the the arguments from The Leave Alliance in support of FLEXCIT: The Market Solution; the measures used against it, they have been bordering on the antithesis of Real Democracy via REJECT, ALIENATE, EXCLUDE & OMIT such "vigorous and rigorous" positive contributing arguments to democratic decision-making? Why?

In the next blog, this question - will be answered definitively.

IMF, FUD & JENGA

 Thanks to Google News we can see FUD for what it really is: JENGA!

A very significant and repeating aetiology:-

"Etiology (/iːtiˈɒlədʒi/; alternatively aetiology or ætiology) is the study of causation, or origination. The word is derived from the Greek αἰτιολογία, aitiologia, "giving a reason for" (αἰτία, aitia, "cause"; and -λογία, -logia). The word is most commonly used in medical and philosophical theories, where it is used to refer to the study of why things occur, or even the reasons behind the way that things act."

in the Pro-EU arguments takes the form of:-

1. The EU is not in terribly great shape, I admit that. I accept there is some minor issue with the eurozone or with Greece or with borders... however,
2. It needs reform and we would be "throwing away" our friendship with our good friends if we were to leave.
3. We should not "turn our backs" on """"""""Europe""""""""" but show "solidarity" and work on the inside... otherwise spurning our friendships, they would not think to treat us badly if we left having treated them so disrespectfully. And besides if Murdoch can influence Number 10 but not Brussels that tells you everything doesn't it!
4. And... and... that is why Climate Change, Terrorism, Crime and... and... CHINA!!!
5. I shall be fighting body and soul to remain in the EU my good people! How I will fight for you...

Example of giving a really "low-quality reason for"... Substitute labelling = Superstitious Results

This old appellation was used to label "the unknown" on old maps. And so it seems we experience the same use of a fearsome image when we fail to provide a map for our thinking in decision-making, in this case political so-called "democratic" decision-making for the UK's EU Referendum.

Now with any decision-making there is an element of uncertainty as opposed to certainty when there is no decision-making and hence it's certain. However I think this is an underlying cause of over the long-term increasing uncertainty more and more instead of dealing with smaller quantities of more specific areas of decision-making, what might be called "Antifragile" engineering into our politics: The longer the lack of decision-making the longer the lack of selective forces operating on any given system and the more divorced it becomes from reality checks until:-

A House Of Cards: The longer the game goes on, the bigger the fragility and FUD

The "sudden" collapse, that apparently none of the experts predicted. You can read more of this concerning the IMF via Dr. RAE North:-

EU Referendum: IMF – it's not over

There's an especially resounding reminder of the predictions of such economists:-

"In fact, so inaccurate is IMF forecasting that one commentator suggested taxpayers' money could be saved by replacing  its staff with dart-throwing chimps.This was after its 2013 forecast for world growth came in at 4.1 percent when the S&P 500 had been at 1,400. When it issued its revised outlook of 2.9 percent,  the S&P 500 had been just a whisker off its all time high.

In 2014, the Finanical Times was assessing its record in predicting the 2009 recession. Its verdict was: "An astonishing record – of complete failure". To be fair, this remark was not confined to the IMF. Nevertheless, none other than IMF economist Prakash Loungani found there was little to choose between the IMF and the World Bank, and private-sector forecasters. Their records were all "terrible". Loungani wrote: "The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished".

By 2104, Loungani, with a colleague, Hites Ahir, had returned to the topic in the wake of the economic crisis. The record of failure remained "impressive", he said. Of 77 countries under consideration, 49 had been in recession in 2009. Economists had not predicted a single one."  

The language used in markets: The Bear And Bull Market:-

"The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. The names perhaps correspond to the fact that a bull attacks by lifting its horns upward, while a bear strikes with its claws in a downward motion."

Seems to be concerned with either an upward or a downward trend but little with the respective "antifragile" quality of such directions in either direction. Confidence or Uncertainty are the two psychological terms for market conditions. And if you look at Google News and the IMF and Brexit and The Bank Of England, truly you'll start to see how ineffectual these institutions really are:-

"Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better".

If we are to be sucked against our will into converting a Political Decision into something that has Economic consequences, then we can always point out that in any case, the IMF and the likes of the Pro-EU supporters created such a picture as this:-

As for Brexit and it's effect, the political causes "a priori" are:-

It seems to me that the take-home from the intervention and use of FUD by the likes of the IMF and The Bank Of England and the Eurozone/EU and Westminster is that not only do we need to reform our own politics, but the part that has not been completed; namely the "Separation Of Powers" to increase decision-making feedback on the exertion of those powers is in particular the "Monetary" Powers; to which a lot of "Here Be Dragons" is still applied in our daily lives:-

Electoral Commission/Lead Brexit Designation