Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label UKIP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UKIP. Show all posts

Wednesday, 18 November 2015

A Science of Simplicity

Brexit = Simplicity (LHS) vs Complexity (RHS) both built above "Pragmatic Legitimacy"

In the very first blog, How do you become a "eurosceptic" Brexiteer? it was noted that the foundation to all our communications and hence political decision making systems; "Representative Democracy": which like The Laughing Cavalier (can be seen at The Wallace Collection) seems neither representative nor Democratic, as per The Harrogate Agenda:-

 Much like representative democracy: The Laughing Cavalier is neither "laughing" nor a "Cavalier"!

is built on Trust. A very simple foundation. But it's presence as per Jared Diamond's The World Until Yesterday - At The Airport - An Airport Scene (Papua New Guinea) p.4
"Still another distinction of the 2006 crowd compared to the 1931 crowds was a feature that we take for granted in the modern world: Most of the people crammed into that airport hall were strangers who had never seen each other before, but there was no fighting going on among them. That would have been unimaginable in 1931, when encounters with strangers were rare, dangerous, and likely to turn violent. Yes, there were those two policemen in the airport hall, supposedly to maintain order, but in fact the crowd maintained order by itself, merely because the passengers knew that none of those other strangers was about to attack them, and that they lived in a society with more policemen and soldiers on call in case a quarrel should get out of hand." 
This passage feels particularly pertinent to consider in light of the Paris terrorist attacks on innocent crowds of people, and we easily forget that the simple, scalable act of individuals all deciding to "Trust" one another allows such large gatherings of groups of people, as per Squaddie TV. Trust is one of the Moral Foundations of legitimacy as discussed in Legitimacy & Listening for our political system to work effectively and ensure the feedback loop of our decision-making is providing both negative and positive feedback of decisions and policies.

What has happened with the loss of Trust is the increase in Apathy of electorates as per Power To The People and the increase in the manipulation of Anxiety of governments on their people because of the widening of the MIND THE (Credibility) GAP! between people, parties and politicians, the Political Class that is the displacement of Trust in politics. Dylan Moran manages to capture this apathy and loss of trust:-

The ineffable Dylan Moran: More 'home truths' than ALL our 650 MP's can manage

What we've seen with the above terrorist attacks is the realization that our politicians cannot be trusted and that is related to their political decisions on multiple policies across Foreign Policy, Migration Policy (Irregular Economic migrants and asylum of refugees) and of course the lack of democracy above all in these processes as mentioned. It's why Migration Immigration is so HIGHLY VISIBLE a policy invested with the increased public political will and demand for change: The loss of that simple assumption in our everyday lives: Trust. Dr. RAE North addresses this topic in detail here in the context of Brexit: Strategy Ten: Immigration.

Looking now at the top diagram, however we must define Brexit as a simple choice based on Trust, not on results nor on promises of results, but on Trust of past actions and past words and re-establishing Credibility into Politics BEFORE EVERYTHING that follows

What we can rely on however is those with vested interests: The Politicians, The Lawyers, The Bankers, to assert their own priorities and their own complexities above the people and we've seen the results of this in Lakshmi: Goddess of Prosperity (1). This is the path towards complexity and towards manipulation and a loss of trust in democracy and hence Black Swans.

 The Politicians increase complexity and Black Swans atst as selling FUD to voters!

This noted in Brexit For Beginners: The Hydra Of Complexity. However using a Macroscope as per My Kingdom For A Macroscope! and The EU Onion and The Brexit Number, we can make a hugely significant distinction as per Pub Signs:-
  • Brexit = Present Simple x1 Day out of 14,625 days singular event
  • FLEXCIT = Present Continous Many Years Process triggered by Brexit
  • British Model EU rebranding = Continued complexity and fragility in the EU with sustained mistrust as per Breadcrumbing.
 So how do we simplify the Brexit choice down to a single number/day and a single word to vote for for people, and one that all the voters can above all TRUST?:-


FLEXCIT Process: Defining Brexit as simply as possible by burning away "hydra heads"

Here's a visualization of the structural organization of FLEXCIT. The objective as needs repeating is Simplification, simplification, simplification of Brexit as the binary option on the Referendum Day to choose that people can Trust (because behind it is a Plan that is superior to Cameron's received complexity and fudge and lies and manipulation from the EU: The EU is susceptible to Black Swans because it's so complex politically it is fragile and the only way it can sustain itself is via Deception using all the political power it has centralized to do so for over 60yrs.

Simplicity is what we're interested in and here's why for two reasons. First:-
  • Remove Segments
  • Reduce Segments
  • = More Simple!!
This means Brexit is more understandable for more people and hence they can TRUST this choice more; because it's an event built into a fuller process FLEXCIT itself. It is made for the people, it is including the people, it is educating the people unlike the politicians who attempt to deceive the people for so many decades over the EU.

The blue headings effectively point out a very simple truth connecting the 4 starting conditions with the eventual future dividends (all in green):-

 Utilizing the smallest of deviations that accumulate into very large end changes over time

The "Starting Conditions" must be accounted for:-
  1. Stuffing 45 Years + x7 Major Treaties into x1 Referendum Day = Our Politicians failures against democracy
  2. The Membership of the EU has accumulated from 1972 huge complexity; only small changes via the the correct legal route of Article 50 are valid and also viable to the UK's secure withdrawal. 
Looking after these may lead to "Future Dividends" that are not immediate so can be removed (for the time-being). Hence all promises of global trade and real democracy by our politicians should be removed from the debate.

That leaves the Yellow Titles. The largest segment are policies. Hence removing this from debate is essential to slaying that Hydra of complexity. Simply on withdrawing repatriating the entire EU acquis to eventually be modified means there's very little to no immediate change: Hence all fears and criticisms are removed

It also means for "eurosceptics" to start Learning & Playing The Rules Of The Game and keeping your eyes on the ball as per Off The Ball Movement. If you get bogged down in the above details you add complexity and that plays to the status quo effect, the real enemy of the Referendum, The Top-Down Referendum tool of the professional poltiicians as per How about a nice game of Chess? and again we looked at how complexity is the friend of the trickster in The Knight 'N Knave and the enemy potentially to political progress away from stagnation and control by those in power.

The next biggest is "Withdrawal Options": Without unity and without unity of understanding, why should people/voters trust us? They will trust prestige, and authority as we already covered Legitimacy & Listening, the Dominance-Submission Relationship exerting it's negative effects. We know that if Brexit is defined as simply as possible then it is the nearest layer out of the EU in the EU Onion and the option that is quickest and easiest to reach The Brexit Number which is The Norway Option as per Brexit For Beginners:-


We know why because it is not only simplest even if not optimal, it also satisfies our starting positions and hence is also the most honest position to take and that is the task we're really talking about: Trust!

If this is accepted, then the next largest slug in the pie is The Single Market and that is covered via the Norway Option through EEA access via EFTA membership. This does mean however that such memes as:-
  • Cost-Saving
  • Regulation
  • Control of Borders
Must be removed also from the argument of Brexit. Remember simplifying is GOOD FOR THE PEOPLE! It also means both sides of the argument must be simplified including our side! Goodbye outdated memes, hello simplicity.

I just say an interesting comment on Immigration, it's own slug in the pie and therefore of course important but it is the smaller of the above! if you choose any guide that as per simplicity is an abstract rule of thumb to use to reassure about this decision:- Comment is found here: Strategy Ten: Immigration

Those who want more immigration control will fall into Cameron's complexity trap...

What needs to be understood by "eurosceptics" who I hope after reading this will convert into "Brexiteers" is the above works like this in visual form:-



How Cameron can quickly reassert credibility and authority on Immigration in the EU

You can go over the vast stats on this, for example covered in OMG !!! Parakeet Invasion which references both Dr. RAE North and also Migration Watch. Two of the sources I've found most useful. The above graph shows how politically all Cameron has to do is as per ScepticSid above implement what he can do already and which the EU will ensure also, and the electorate perception will shift on the immigration issue. The proportion is not proportional to the perception, but for most middle-swing-voters that's the type of reassurance they'll vote for.

So UKIP'ers, LEAVE.EU look at the above and reconsider the ranking of immigration I would suggest in terms of SIMPLICITY to achieve your goals.
If you purport to be "The Peoples' Campaign" you will best serve the people through simplicity else you'll fall into Cameron's complexity trap as well as not convince swing voters and again failing the Pragmatic Legitimacy test

To finish, if we go to the top diagram about TRUST. Having FLEXCIT or Cameron's British Model PROCESSES behind each option is the key to each side of the Referendum question (hence Strategy Ten: the need for an exit plan); which itself is an event. Brexit itself must be defined as an point-in-time-event crossing that Supranational line into Intergovernmental context: It needs to be as simply as who do you trust? The people if they are given a chance or the politicians who we have recorded their lies and their lack of legitimacy and hence illusion of authority. We've also previously visited why conceptually both LEAVE.EU and Vote Leave are failing the people on the side of Leave as much as our own government fails the Remain side of people in the question via complexity as per The EU Onion and The Brexit Number.

The top diagram proves why this organization is intellectually bankrupt for not having a brexit plan; it underpins TRUST by removing Pragmatic Legitimacy as a risk!


For that simplification, we must look at how FLEXCIT as a process reduces, removes and hence simplified can be scaled up democratically to more people and empowers them more - the total opposite of a few people behind closed doors deciding the future decades of millions of people with that terrible weight of responsibility and the corrupting influence of power centralized.

Which would you choose?

Thursday, 8 October 2015

OMG !!!! Parakeet invasion

BBC2 - The Great British Parakeet Invasion

The above mini-documentary on Rose-Ringed Parakeets is a very 'watchable' mixture of entertainment and investigation by the BBC: It's done with a balanced, playful tone at the same time as being informative and avoiding either sentimentality or hostility. It's not seeking to increase the dosage for servicing peoples' "emotional hits".

This is an example of a positive and balanced "investigative and discursive journalism" that aims to be informative and entertaining. It could do with a few more numbers on the actual population, a few more contributions from scientists studying their "impact" for both ecologically positive and negative outcomes as an "invasive" and now naturalised species. But overall it is inviting and inclusive of opinions and simultaneously fun. The best quality is that it is produced with confidence in letting the subject matter "do the talking" and leaving overall judgement and interpretation to the viewer.

There's something oddly familiar-sounding...

To compare to The Daily Mail which decides more of peoples' "emotional-buttons" need pressing to increase it's "attractive/detractive-value" or what people otherwise term "Deliberate (Professional) Trolling" of readers. Indeed, the RSPB "Giving Nature A Home" advise:-

'It is important that the spread of the ring-necked parakeet is monitored, and its potential for negative impacts on our native bird species assessed.'
If the parakeet population were to continue to grow, the implications for our native species must be closely monitored. The Government is obliged to ensure that non-native species do not adversely affect native wildlife, and is currently developing a policy framework for addressing the possible risks associated with such species becoming established.



And here we have "The 2 Overruling Themes" on our own National Conversations concerning Migration Policy often reported as "Immigration Stories" of one kind or another in the Legacy News-Media.

1. Communication: Hot-Buttons


Stephen Pinker, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature :-

"Aside from supplying a direct justification for violent conflict, the ideology of intergroup struggle ignites a nasty feature of human social psychology: the tendency to divide people into in-groups and out-groups and to treat the out-groups as less than human. It doesn't matter whether the groups are thought to be defined by their biology or by their history. Psychologists have found that they can create instant intergroup hostility by sorting people on just about any pretext, including the flip of a coin."
 According to Westphalian sovereignty :-

"Westphalian sovereignty is the principle of international law that each nation state has sovereignty over its territory and domestic affairs, to the exclusion of all external powers, on the principle of non-interference in another country's domestic affairs, and that each state (no matter how large or small) is equal in international law. The doctrine is named after the Peace of Westphalia, signed in 1648... As European influence spread across the globe, the Westphalian principles, especially the concept of sovereign states, became central to international law and to the prevailing world order.

International relations theorists have identified several key principles of the Peace of Westphalia, which explain the Peace's significance and its impact on the world today":
  1. The principle of the sovereignty of states and the fundamental right of political self determination
  2. The principle of legal equality between states
  3. The principle of non-intervention of one state in the internal affairs of another state
In The Road To The European Union we looked at a comparison between different forms of governance via Roger Scruton's series of articles which concluded the significance of National Borders and hence Sovereignty to Nation States and the preconditions for Democracy such as The Rule Of Law etc, eloquently summarized by Jesus Christ Matthew 22:20-22 King James Version (KJV), whom Roger Scruton quotes:-
"Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's"
To add the context above, effectively National Democracies form "in-groups" and "out-groups" as such it will inevitably be a "hot button topic" in the nature of arguments that follow. From this statement of fact, it follows that due care and management of both: Communication and Policy are needed for the handling of Migration Policy at the National Level of good governance.

2. Migration Policy: A Government Dereliction of Duty


In Literature and Science we came to a hugely significant conclusion concerning the Visibility Of Arguments vs Quality of Arguments, to recap:-
  • Media, UKIP, Establishment: Immigration > EU > Democracy 
  • FLEXCIT: Democracy > EU > Immigration
 United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)

 This inference is backed up in two ways: First, the argument we make here (above) and secondly looking at a history of The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) (cheekily referred to as the UK-immigration-P); it demonstrates the growth curve away from being dismissed as a:-
"UKIP was founded in 1991 by the historian Alan Sked as the Anti-Federalist League, a single-issue Eurosceptic party. Renamed UKIP in 1993, the party adopted a wider right-wing platform and gradually increased its support vote over the coming two decades. Under Farage's leadership, from 2009 the party tailored its policies toward a politically disenfranchised white working-class support base, before making significant breakthroughs in the 2013 local elections and the 2014 European elections, where UKIP received the most votes. At the 2015 general election, the party gained the third largest vote share but won only one seat in the House of Commons.
"In 2006, Farage was elected leader of UKIP. He sought to broaden UKIP's image away from that of a single-issue party by introducing an array of socially conservative policies, including reducing immigration"


 UKIP EU Parliament Elections Results 2014

The numbers provided at wikipedia completely back up the growth of UKIP and it's politically impressive and significant to the state of our arguments. Looking also at:-

The full picture of the visibility of Migration Policy such that polling represents (in so much as polling represents anything of use - wet thumb for wind direction): Opinion Poll Results on Immigration shows this effect asserting itself in tandem with UKIP's political numbers and support growth.

However, UKIP and Immigration Polling are all about Visibility of Arguments, they represent (an especial topic for national democracies to be sensitive concerning) which are symptoms and effects of policy failure or lack of policy from our Government - not - the actual causes.


Dr. RAE North documents Government policy failure with perspicacity and detail:-
Migration: dealing with the problems
Migration: a continued parade of ignorance
Migration: the UN intervenes
Migration: the pot speaks of the kettles
Migration: reducing the pull factors
Immigration: not an EU issue?
Immigration: joined-up policy needed
Immigration: a series of marginal gains
Immigration: not quite what it appears
Immigration: the "pull factors" prevail
Immigration: the rehearsal is over
Immigration: a perfect storm in the offing?
Immigration: amateur time is over
Immigration: a "resolute Conservative government"
Immigration: a free pass for "criminals"
Immigration: opportunities galore
Immigration: Eritrea – confusion and ambiguity
Immigration: in the year to come
Immigration: a tale of incompetence
Immigration: Pegida hits a new record

 
A lot of the main arguments are summarized in FLEXCIT. Dr. RAE North as you can see provides a vast analysis of Migration Policy, and both deeper and broader than Migration Watch, as well as far more contextual and impartial. But it shows the complex web of Policy Failure that is the true measure of the Quality of Argument and you compare it to UKIP's website, which is so barren of information to educate yourself with, by contrast: They don't need to regarding relying on the visibility of arguments only:-



Legacy Media: "Pushing your buttons"

Ultimately we can establish a hierarchy: 

  • "Representative Democracy" fails to represent voters.
  •  The Political Party in office is more concerned with holding power than working on "joined-up policy" across not just Migration, but the EU, Energy, Defence etc.
  • This incoherence is amplified in the News-Media along with various Political Correctness orthodoxy or "Groupthink".
  • In turn the underlying tenets of National Democracy start to strain and the rise of alternative parties such as UKIP are a direct result of the Top-Down Crystallization of Westminster Politics under the further and continuous Centralization of the EU.
  • Improving the quality of our arguments even if this appears less expedient than pushing the visibility value of arguments (which is where prestige is able to sustain no productive changes) will help people see beyond their normal moral filters and start to find greater consensus: Which means greater democratic representation and removing barriers towards that.
Coming back to the Parakeet examples of people's numerous varied reactions:-

Parakeets: "Flying secateurs" or "colourful characters"?

The above perfectly summarizes the hyper-emotional level of debate: Highly visible but extremely shallow and hence poor quality arguments: Mostly sentiment: Sentimentality and hostility. Towards Sir James Goldsmith's speech in The Referendum Party's Election video in Our Government: "Ifs, Buts, Maybes" he mentions that the great property of democracies is the ability of opposing groups with different views to accept the other side's arguments in a fair vote, fairly represented and hence "democracy heals itself". This property is not possible within the EU and is also very lacking in our own government at Westminster.
Previusly, the trend is from accusing UKIP, Dr. RAE North: EU Referendum: migrant misinformation. Then more people realize there's also something wrong with our media "in on it too" as per Lost Leonardo: A User’s Guide To The New Media and sooner or later it will work it's way back to the Government, The Brexit Door: Mrs May, Twittter & The politics of independence

When we gain more consensus closer to the ultimate source, then we will see that the argument beyond the government was all along within ours, the people's power to change things and force the govenment to actually work according to democracy. But in order to do that, all of:-
  • UKIP
  • Legacy News-Media
  • Our Government
  • Ourselves, The People
Must start using higher quality arguments according the fair rules of Real Democracy.  I personally believe UK/Britain has been one of the most tolerance and welcoming nations in the entire world and that we have one of the best and most cosmopolitan cities in the world in London where a lot of migration is focused.But without real democracy, those values and collective virtues of our culture are undermined; "our national treasures" as a people are tarnished by the politicians in power.

Rose-Ringed Parakeet tail-feather
Here's the tail-feather of a newly fledged Rose-Ringed Parakeet, I inadvertently saved from a Sparrowhawk, over the Summer. By everyone managing to improve the quality of their arguments across the board and not merely their visibility we'll all be able to "put a feather in our caps" for real democracy (pardon the pun!).