Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label Celebrity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Celebrity. Show all posts

Tuesday, 26 July 2016

Before Decision-Making: Explosive Cocktails of Emotion









In one of the previous blog posts I noted how the news-stories wash over us incessantly bathing people in the emotional-narrative driven soup of the major broadcasters and tabloids. Evidently this serves a function which people feel a need for: The connection to the community and world within which they coexist and share and shape their expectations for life.

Legacy News-Media: No responsibility for sensationalism vs accuracy and training people to accept an unreality as the "norm".

For the concept of democracy to work, it hinges on the assumption that each voting adult who has made the successful transition from childhood as an independent decision-maker with a single vote to represent that, that such people are emotionally mature and rational. But if we compare the diet or environment within which voters exist, the above sensationalist news-media and the preference for people to seek pleasurable emotional stimulation even if it's "angry"; we can already see where this is going to lead to communication being impaired and reducing to people emotionally "venting": Sometimes nastily but invariably distracting away from building foundations of decision-making ie informing first.

Not only are people going to be less rational in their political discourse, they're equally reducing the complexity of understanding they are able to tolerate without feeling deprived of hyper-emotional presentation. The capacity to tolerate complex information itself is reduced. Just try reading some of the reports and papers that are primary source...

This may sound overly theoretical at the moment, but one look across "the pond" towards the United States of America and with the benefit of "outsiders' eyes" I think it seems very obvious how degraded their processes of democracy must be if we consider the communication of information to voters to aid their decision-making, even delusional on a mass scale, might appear by comparison to our standards? Now envision how the Chinese looking at the United Kingdom and wondering how poorly and chaotically do they run their political planning and policy to be able to effectively "run an entire nation"?! It may give pause for reconsideration of how we actually as opposed to apparently make decisions at a national level? There's so much grandstanding on "self-expression" (from Mill) and a "free press" and such little thought to extending BEYOND this beginning of democratic processes!! As if the beginning IS the process alone.

To bring the subject towards the focus of this blog: Brexit: Since we have had the decision, what is obvious is the ongoing attempt to emotionally digest it; from all corners and speakers

And I think this is perhaps of observation at a mass scale, in the confusion of the leadership or lack of it, in fact, of our political leaders concerning the permanent set of crisis operating across Europe concerning the EU, the EURO, Migration and Terrorism and how to politically deal with these things without a chain reaction due to the uncertainty vs confidence of our market economies.

Such explosive cocktails of emotion were deemed too dangerous at a national level by the original thinkers of the EU Supranational solution (Jean Monnet) almost one hundred years ago towards the ending of World War One. I notice our present analysts of the Referendum such as Matthew Goodwin has taken time to use the voting data to describe the obvious: "Britain is divided" along his preferential measures of Education, Age, Income Bracket, Metropolitican vs Rural for example.

From such studies many commentators come out with rationalizations: "People voted for Brexit because...".

Of fascination however, is this quote from Dr. RAE North at EUReferendum.com:-





"The thing is, when we are dealing with something as important as a complete revolution in the way we are governed, with the health and wealth of the entire nation dependent on it, that is the sort of detail we should be looking at. To have a amateurs casually interviewing a few high prestige witnesses, simply to confirm the prejudices of the questioners, is a complete waste of time and effort.

Of course, we are so good at having prolonged inquiries after the event – the BSE inquiry, the Bloody Sunday inquiry, Leveson and, more recently, the Chilcot inquiry. At a cost of hundreds of millions, it seems no expense is spared in our attempts to find out why things went wrong. Why then should we not invest a little of that money up-front, in attempt to make sure that we do things right?

And, if Parliament can't hack it, it should move over and cede the ground to people who can do the job. We used quite frequently to have Royal Commissions to examine issues of substance, and their weighty reports used to fuel debates for years thereafter. If ever there was an example of a need for such a Commission, the post-exit reconstruction of Britain is one.

As it is, one cannot escape the impression that officials are flying blind and, outrageously to mix metaphors, are totally out of their depth." 
The former in red is symptom of the investment in distractions due to the failure of using knowledge to promote decision-making capacity in place of "forceful personality" (see Blair-mania and the promotion of celebrity of our leaders: "The first lady or coloured candidate emotional-pleading narratives) and hence subsequently the loss of capacity in decision-making in light of new or alternative evidence.

Is it little wonder that Parliament emulates this "explosive cocktail of emotions" within the population when they bray like donkeys at each other? It's a show, a distraction which itself feeds most of the legacy news-media which in turn feeds itself based off the emotional needs of the population. The "house of workshop" (where decision-making is deliberated via structured and organized activity and rules for such (Parliament)) itself has become a fossil not fit for the work of policy and intelligence driven decision-making at a national and democratic level.

The latter in blue suggests that investment in decision-making behaviours themselves that demonstrate an encapsulation of "intelligence" will likely help the UK avoid the excesses (in red): But it takes a very conscious and very committed and finally very community-driven initiative to set such higher expectations for the entire UK. Pete North makes this point:  The revolution that never was:-
"Much of what is said by European leaders is for the time being merely political signals to their own electorates now that Hollande and Merkel are facing re-election. There is always a gulf between what politicians say and what is technically feasible.

[...]
In that regard, I will not be watching PMQs or even paying that much attention to the words of the EU commission. It will be in the back rooms and select committees where Britain’s fate is decided. That is where I will be watching. What I have seen thus far is not encouraging."

 After a failure of decision-making we end up with the euphemisms of failure: "Mistakes Were Made". In fact no real communication produces such analysis of results as Matthew Goodwin above desperately attempts, like a blind man in the dark, to grasp the meaning of but never quite getting there: Only rearranging the data into interesting patterns. He's not alone, I listened recently to almost the entire Lords Debate on the Referendum on the BBC Parliament channel and not once did I hear the authority of attempting to first understand the EU, via using a history of it "The Great Deception" before attempting to use such a common ground to then promote discussion of Brexit from. You could hear a thousand different reasons, all as plausible and personal as the next and never come away with a deeper understanding. Not beginning correctly, and hence attempting to begin at the end and ending up with more emotional cocktails exploding... entropy of politics and the fear of the ruling order of "too much democracy" such as "Referendums are a scourge on democracy"!

But if we look at this argument, then I think it supports the idea for Brexit to ensure as much political decision-making concerning Article 50 is "automated" or "off-the-shelf" as is possible to MOVE BEYOND THIS EMOTIONAL BEGINNING and get away from it as successfully as possible via FLEXCIT: Stage 1. Failure to do so is very obvious presently in the discussions:-




People like Nicola Sturgeon and Lord Lawson, it may be rationale to understand what role they are play-acting in their absurd demands and declarations from Brexit, but if you take the "model" of "emotion" before decision-making: This is indeed what they are playing at: They are playing and captivating and conditioning peoples' emotions to shape-decision-making political power. They are "beneath contempt" as per Dr. RAE North:-
"Handled properly, the benefits of Brexit for the UK could be huge, but there should be no illusions about the effects of a botched exit, based on this sort of insanity. We thus need people to stop playing fantasy Brexit and to focus on reality. We really cannot afford these games."
 It's much less that democracy is a danger, for good democracy promotes good communication and hence good argument and hence good decision-making practice and indeed the experience of improving at this with more practice. It's our leaders who are the cause of and consequence of failure "we cannot afford these games" quite numerically and literally!






Thursday, 21 July 2016

Brexit: Devout Congregations In Conflict!

Dutch woodcut: Congregations rely on leadership, a sense of family, a house of worship to produce a coherent set of shared expectations

I remember having to sit through sermons and the like in church or other variations of christian assembly and feeling interminably bored. I think the biggest problem I had was that the source of shared story-telling sounded like insensible news from about 2,000 years ago. I find large assemblies of people to this day "hard-work" and feel queasy at them, the exception being when everyone is seated and listening attentively then the size matters not, so long as the "business of the day" or subject matter is interesting and intelligible. Of course I realize the "coming together" of similar people (similar shared interests and expectations and social norms) is valid even if the actual literal business is nonsense.

Recently I've been keeping tabs on the developments of various committee meetings and reported news of various different spokespeople on the subject of Brexit.

I have to point out a couple of common descriptions:-
  • The size of the congregation gives the designated speaker the platform to speak
  • The designated speaker replaces the congregation's voices the more the forum (or house of worship) becomes esoteric to the ordinary understanding of the congregation rather than representing them directly. Or indeed the forum itself purports to represent such a quantity of people of variable norms as to be unrepresentative of more than less.
  • The consensus between designated speakers allows them to build "barriers to entry" to other potential speakers, perhaps from the ranks of the congregation? Perhaps the formation of dynasties, bubble effects and various other forms of upper echelon nepotism forms: Namely the relationships between (across) this tier is represented more than below?
  • The designated speakers whether priests or politicians develop their own liturgical language as a component of such "barriers to entry".
  • The interests of these "priests" who "lead" congregations are vested within the fact they hold a platform built on top of their congregations and hence their core interest is in preserving such power over these people for their own eminence.
  • Likewise, other such "priests" both in the shared motivation and the shared language of coordinating congregations spend more and more time and focus on this activity effectively the "bartering" of assumed expectations between different congregations and within congregations, to summarize this:-
  1. Within Frame Shared Expectations
  2. Between Frame Shared Expectations
  • Because of this process, it appears to me that politicians, priests become less and less leaders based on a particular expertise in a particular domain of knowledge or indeed less and less representative of their congregations (one of them) but become more and more actors who possess the trappings of leadership, the pretence of symbolizing family connectedness to the congregations and hence shared communal forums to promote the functions of democratic decision-making between individuals and collectives in various spheres of activity - this is displaced: The framing of expectations either within (see Labour atm) or Between (see Remain vs Leave for example) becomes far more encompassing a motivation of this class of people.
  • Modern culture itself takes on these trappings of breakdown in democracy and in fact we could potentially extrapolate this further: The decay of civilization's progression: Celebrity promotion, Excessive investment in distractions of a cultural and mass appeal, an inability to reformulate decision-making when alternative evidence is submitted to the leadership etc.
Ok, that penultimate bullet point is the assertion being promoted in this blog and now it's time to back it up and see just how much the assertion is applicable and perhaps I hope, helpful from moving from description to explanation: Namely explanation allows connection of seemingly disparate elements...

I'll use the three broad categories in the final bullet point above:-

(1) Celebrity Promotion




If we first look at the intervention of Nicola Sturgeon, then we can summarize the nonsense of liturgy she spews out using Scribblings From Seaham's blog observations to back this up:  Talking Heads

Strugeon's motivation is I think quite likely to follow the "model" proposed above: Her platform must be asserted and she must appear to be producing value back to it to sustain her elevation. Does it really follow that Brexit will sabotage the Scots' destiny as a people as Sturgeon would have her followers in her congregation believe? Far from it. But the two priests above must appear to be powerfully talking to each other for the benefit of both the media (personality mania) and hence the congregations low-information and even lower information reporting of personalities let alone voices of argument from the two celebrities above.





































Here is a back-up of "Laura Kuenssberg" "media personality" reporting of the priests in action (see the subscript description and her tweets).  Secondly it's interesting to notice the spiked online Article 50 clamour vs May's delay on it.

Edit-Update: Just caught (21:30) Daily Politics21/07/2016 and the surreal squeals of delight concerning the sex of the above leaders... imho it suggests that appearance has superceded substance: They have nothing of value to say (the commentary) - not triggering Article 50 prematurely could be explored far more fruitfully if there was real knowledge operating...

(2) Excessive Investment in Forms of Distraction

I really don't know where to begin with this suggestion? I guess the most effective description would be that this is the product between celebrity obsession (to use a headline tag) over attending to alternative evidence when it becomes available? I suppose it may be a case of "choose your preferred poison as per your own personality preferences:-

Greenpeace Repaints Vote Leave Battlebus To Correct Brexit Campaign ‘Lies’



There's a couple of possible motivations here:-
  • It just FEELS so good doing something like this, a stunt of sorts?
  • Stunts capture the imagination all the better to stoke congregations' emotions with? In fact the appearance of doing something that appears good outmatches in terms of popularity the actual functional work of doing something effective? Who could argue against the lies of Boris' "blunderbus"??
  • If you take this stunt at face value it's hard not to feel sympathy for the sincere attempt to recorrect a sense of unfairness in the campaigns, but this fails to realize that the performance of both campaigns remain and leave is so perversely dislocated from the results which require much deeper and extended research to understand (hint hint: The Great Deception).
  • It may help understand this type of emotional error more via comparison to such a similar error or displacement ie heavy investment in distraction from the other "side of the divide":-


There's nothing uniquely moronic about Greenpeace's particular choice of actions, they are, as indeed are Politeia, "Reverting To Type": In the latter's case you can see that this Think Tank demands prestigious economic "magic" and hence sources them appropriately in the selection of curated authors above. Again it seems that this feels good for these people (perhaps partly because of the money, prestige, authority that this line of argument seems to generate successfully for this Think Tank (as per their own admission/boast/assertion)). Why? It's clearly more successful than Greenpeace's efforts for the people in this Think Tank; though Greenpeace seem also to have been successful with funding and lobbying from the EU, not to be sniffed at either(!). I would guess it comes back to the idea of politicians as priests and requiring "material for sermons" which sway the most people or sway most powerfully most of the time when needed, the various congregations of people? And this, ladies and gentleman means MONEY Time.

What seems very noticeable is that trying to educate all these disparate congregations with "Between Frame of Expectations" is very unlikely to work. The sermons by our modern priests, our politicians therefore must adapt as described in the above bullet points to uphold their positions: The Economy and riches is one strand of thought that seems to provide political power very successfully.

Nevertheless, this bypasses what's so noticeable recently, using various examples:-

Scientists:-





Farmers:-

City:-
This list of "claimants" could get very, very long! Let's stop at three for now.

(3) Inability to reformulate decision-making according to alternative evidence

You can see that politics becomes bogged down with the different congregations run by priests/politicians who then put their own particular priorities in place as a consequence - but at what cost? We shall see now:-

I cannot do better than list EUReferendum.com past number of blogs:-

Brexit: a failure to plan21/07/2016
Brexit: unlimited dishonesty20/07/2016
Brexit: in for the long haul20/07/2016
Brexit: opportunity knocks19/07/2016
Brexit: free movement and the Single Market18/07/2016
Booker: does Brexit mean Brexit?17/07/2016
Brexit: Treasury Committee – oral evidence16/07/2016
Brexit: in the hands of fools and knaves15/07/2016

And secondly, more difficult to follow, Pete North I think I am right in suggesting (up to a point) is sometimes considering a similar "cost" at Global Level in the communication and functioning of furthering Trade in some of his recent blogs (a lot of background that I've not done so hence out of my depth speaking here for sure):-

During General Elections the holy word is "Economy", it seems the post-Referendum holy word in our sermons must be "Trade". This is all well and good sounding, but is it also more than sound and more than appearance alone?

Well a quick look (please look at it's sections in detail in your own leisure) at:-

European Union Committee The process of withdrawing from the European Union 11th Report of Session 2015-16 - published 4 May 2016 - HL Paper 138


Some random excerpts:-

The likelihood of the two-year time limit being extended


42.We asked our witnesses how likely it was that the two-year time limit would be extended. Professor Wyatt thought that an extension would probably happen. The incentive was “£8 billion a year in net contributions, and access to the UK market for workers and for motor cars. All the Member States in the EU believe they benefit from the internal market.”

43.Professor Wyatt warned, however, that “there will be huge national self-interest in moving forward in a very considered way without jumping the gun in directions that could torpedo the negotiations before they start”. He saw “huge risks” to this not being achieved: “If, for example, the UK were to … insist on imposing unilateral restrictions on immigration while negotiations were going on, the climate would disintegrate.”

Two agreements, rather than one


31.Article 50(2) TEU requires that the withdrawal agreement “take[s] account of the framework” of the withdrawing Member State’s “future relationship with the Union”. Sir David said that the German language version of Article 50 made plain that the “structure of future relations will already have been established at the point when withdrawal takes place.” Professor Wyatt agreed. He did not think that the withdrawal agreement would be able to “accommodate all the details of the future trading relationship”,

The scope of the negotiations


37.Neither witness could be certain about the form the UK’s future relationship with the EU would take. Professor Wyatt told us: “My suspicion is that it would actually be an association agreement of some kind, because we would end up with a fairly complex comprehensive agreement that would involve co-operative machinery of some sort.
There is a growing suspicion that the high priests want Brexit in a form that they can successfully sermonize to the disparate congregations. Secondly many many of those congregations are so low information that any attempt to communicate educationally with them may indeed be foolish anyway: Just look at a great deal of UKIP or Minford style expositions of Brexit, more dangerous than the sibilant lure of "Association Membership" of the likes of CER and Mr. Springford and his deceptive ilk.

And finally because of the dishonesty and rent-seeking and indeed self-seeking of so many politicians and the various congregations, there is fertile grounds for a complete lack of "WITHIN Frame Shared Expectations" of Brexit leaving the march more challenging and "problem-producing" "BETWEEN Frame Shared Expectations between dozens and dozens of cosy little and ignorant congregations, all the better for the priests/politicians to sermonize DOWN TO.

Alternative evidence is surely heretical to be burnt at the stake...