Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label Democracy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Democracy. Show all posts

Tuesday, 26 July 2016

Before Decision-Making: Explosive Cocktails of Emotion









In one of the previous blog posts I noted how the news-stories wash over us incessantly bathing people in the emotional-narrative driven soup of the major broadcasters and tabloids. Evidently this serves a function which people feel a need for: The connection to the community and world within which they coexist and share and shape their expectations for life.

Legacy News-Media: No responsibility for sensationalism vs accuracy and training people to accept an unreality as the "norm".

For the concept of democracy to work, it hinges on the assumption that each voting adult who has made the successful transition from childhood as an independent decision-maker with a single vote to represent that, that such people are emotionally mature and rational. But if we compare the diet or environment within which voters exist, the above sensationalist news-media and the preference for people to seek pleasurable emotional stimulation even if it's "angry"; we can already see where this is going to lead to communication being impaired and reducing to people emotionally "venting": Sometimes nastily but invariably distracting away from building foundations of decision-making ie informing first.

Not only are people going to be less rational in their political discourse, they're equally reducing the complexity of understanding they are able to tolerate without feeling deprived of hyper-emotional presentation. The capacity to tolerate complex information itself is reduced. Just try reading some of the reports and papers that are primary source...

This may sound overly theoretical at the moment, but one look across "the pond" towards the United States of America and with the benefit of "outsiders' eyes" I think it seems very obvious how degraded their processes of democracy must be if we consider the communication of information to voters to aid their decision-making, even delusional on a mass scale, might appear by comparison to our standards? Now envision how the Chinese looking at the United Kingdom and wondering how poorly and chaotically do they run their political planning and policy to be able to effectively "run an entire nation"?! It may give pause for reconsideration of how we actually as opposed to apparently make decisions at a national level? There's so much grandstanding on "self-expression" (from Mill) and a "free press" and such little thought to extending BEYOND this beginning of democratic processes!! As if the beginning IS the process alone.

To bring the subject towards the focus of this blog: Brexit: Since we have had the decision, what is obvious is the ongoing attempt to emotionally digest it; from all corners and speakers

And I think this is perhaps of observation at a mass scale, in the confusion of the leadership or lack of it, in fact, of our political leaders concerning the permanent set of crisis operating across Europe concerning the EU, the EURO, Migration and Terrorism and how to politically deal with these things without a chain reaction due to the uncertainty vs confidence of our market economies.

Such explosive cocktails of emotion were deemed too dangerous at a national level by the original thinkers of the EU Supranational solution (Jean Monnet) almost one hundred years ago towards the ending of World War One. I notice our present analysts of the Referendum such as Matthew Goodwin has taken time to use the voting data to describe the obvious: "Britain is divided" along his preferential measures of Education, Age, Income Bracket, Metropolitican vs Rural for example.

From such studies many commentators come out with rationalizations: "People voted for Brexit because...".

Of fascination however, is this quote from Dr. RAE North at EUReferendum.com:-





"The thing is, when we are dealing with something as important as a complete revolution in the way we are governed, with the health and wealth of the entire nation dependent on it, that is the sort of detail we should be looking at. To have a amateurs casually interviewing a few high prestige witnesses, simply to confirm the prejudices of the questioners, is a complete waste of time and effort.

Of course, we are so good at having prolonged inquiries after the event – the BSE inquiry, the Bloody Sunday inquiry, Leveson and, more recently, the Chilcot inquiry. At a cost of hundreds of millions, it seems no expense is spared in our attempts to find out why things went wrong. Why then should we not invest a little of that money up-front, in attempt to make sure that we do things right?

And, if Parliament can't hack it, it should move over and cede the ground to people who can do the job. We used quite frequently to have Royal Commissions to examine issues of substance, and their weighty reports used to fuel debates for years thereafter. If ever there was an example of a need for such a Commission, the post-exit reconstruction of Britain is one.

As it is, one cannot escape the impression that officials are flying blind and, outrageously to mix metaphors, are totally out of their depth." 
The former in red is symptom of the investment in distractions due to the failure of using knowledge to promote decision-making capacity in place of "forceful personality" (see Blair-mania and the promotion of celebrity of our leaders: "The first lady or coloured candidate emotional-pleading narratives) and hence subsequently the loss of capacity in decision-making in light of new or alternative evidence.

Is it little wonder that Parliament emulates this "explosive cocktail of emotions" within the population when they bray like donkeys at each other? It's a show, a distraction which itself feeds most of the legacy news-media which in turn feeds itself based off the emotional needs of the population. The "house of workshop" (where decision-making is deliberated via structured and organized activity and rules for such (Parliament)) itself has become a fossil not fit for the work of policy and intelligence driven decision-making at a national and democratic level.

The latter in blue suggests that investment in decision-making behaviours themselves that demonstrate an encapsulation of "intelligence" will likely help the UK avoid the excesses (in red): But it takes a very conscious and very committed and finally very community-driven initiative to set such higher expectations for the entire UK. Pete North makes this point:  The revolution that never was:-
"Much of what is said by European leaders is for the time being merely political signals to their own electorates now that Hollande and Merkel are facing re-election. There is always a gulf between what politicians say and what is technically feasible.

[...]
In that regard, I will not be watching PMQs or even paying that much attention to the words of the EU commission. It will be in the back rooms and select committees where Britain’s fate is decided. That is where I will be watching. What I have seen thus far is not encouraging."

 After a failure of decision-making we end up with the euphemisms of failure: "Mistakes Were Made". In fact no real communication produces such analysis of results as Matthew Goodwin above desperately attempts, like a blind man in the dark, to grasp the meaning of but never quite getting there: Only rearranging the data into interesting patterns. He's not alone, I listened recently to almost the entire Lords Debate on the Referendum on the BBC Parliament channel and not once did I hear the authority of attempting to first understand the EU, via using a history of it "The Great Deception" before attempting to use such a common ground to then promote discussion of Brexit from. You could hear a thousand different reasons, all as plausible and personal as the next and never come away with a deeper understanding. Not beginning correctly, and hence attempting to begin at the end and ending up with more emotional cocktails exploding... entropy of politics and the fear of the ruling order of "too much democracy" such as "Referendums are a scourge on democracy"!

But if we look at this argument, then I think it supports the idea for Brexit to ensure as much political decision-making concerning Article 50 is "automated" or "off-the-shelf" as is possible to MOVE BEYOND THIS EMOTIONAL BEGINNING and get away from it as successfully as possible via FLEXCIT: Stage 1. Failure to do so is very obvious presently in the discussions:-




People like Nicola Sturgeon and Lord Lawson, it may be rationale to understand what role they are play-acting in their absurd demands and declarations from Brexit, but if you take the "model" of "emotion" before decision-making: This is indeed what they are playing at: They are playing and captivating and conditioning peoples' emotions to shape-decision-making political power. They are "beneath contempt" as per Dr. RAE North:-
"Handled properly, the benefits of Brexit for the UK could be huge, but there should be no illusions about the effects of a botched exit, based on this sort of insanity. We thus need people to stop playing fantasy Brexit and to focus on reality. We really cannot afford these games."
 It's much less that democracy is a danger, for good democracy promotes good communication and hence good argument and hence good decision-making practice and indeed the experience of improving at this with more practice. It's our leaders who are the cause of and consequence of failure "we cannot afford these games" quite numerically and literally!






Wednesday, 30 March 2016

Democratic Deficit: Out Of Touch



 Layers of Popularity: Is that Democracy or something else? I think this picture explains the nature of progression of this referendum succinctly


Above is a synthesis of the complete discussion of the subject of this blog. It's an illustration of the low quality arguments and why they appear so much more visible. Starting back to front almost with a conclusion and then proceeding to explain. Let's describe the above:-
  1. Left-Hand Side Columns: X-axis Knowledge 0-5 dominates the debate
  2. If we presume that in the absence of knowledge people resort to what they believe to be "true" or most applicable to them this is based on emotion or personal bias ("what matters to me").
  3. Top Left-Hand Side Row: Y-axis Popularity 10-5: We see that with a leader figurehead our PM holds the most prestige and drives at least 50% of the polling attitudes and all the political infrastructure beneath his office.
  4. Second to him is Boris Johnson, and this is reflected in the Personality Contest that has taken over the Referendum.
  5. Right-Hand Columns: X-axis: I've only added Dr. RAE North. I could have added Andrew Duff floating around a similar area, but wanted to highlight the disparity visually more strikingly so with a single face.
  6. The various ratios are indicative, a general feel, a general impression of the speakers and their coherence and consistency of their arguments vs how regularly they draw attraction from mass media channels of communication.

There was an interesting and I think accurate observation in City AM by Louisa Bojesen:-
"Then an important point was made. Democracy only works when you have a society of smart people. Think about it. [...] Some might argue that, if you can’t have an “intelligent democracy”, then you would be better off with a kind of “benevolent dictator” system."
Now looking at the reaction of a system of government that believes democracy does not work:-
Phillips quotes the Communist party-controlled Global Times: “The rise of a racist in the US political area worries the whole world… He has even been called another Benito Mussolini or Adolf Hitler by some western media... Mussolini and Hitler came to power through elections, a heavy lesson for western democracy.” Phillips writes, “Trump, or ‘Chuanpu' as they call him in China, has been a gift to Communist party spin doctors paid to convince the country’s 1.4bn citizens that rule of the people is a sure path to chaos and destruction.”
Before progressing, retrospectively there's some themes that repeat here: We looked at the absence of intelligence in How To Vote: A Simple Guide to Decision-Making; which as part of a long-standing goal of this blog attempted to provide a simplification for conducive decision-making for the voter. This was off the basis of previous work: Discrīmen: Arguments have their own reasons where the idea of reduction in knowledge per level of dissemination/distribution to more and more people is a natural process of democracy decision-making but still a workable framework for improving national decision-making and I believe do-able/achievable. Then to come back to Democracy directly: Dêmos + Kratos = A Community That Communicates Productively here we looked at a similar theme to this blog but also provided details of successful democracy in Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. The assertion here was that the quality of communication is possibly correlated positively with democracy and by implication a more intelligent decision-making process; achieved.

 Uniting Nations - Out Of Touch: "You're outta touch; I'm outta touch!"

Our older forms of social organization are our family and then tribal forms which probably existed many times longer than all the subsequent forms of human organization put together. thus when dealing with people, the LOCAL SCALE of Democracy is all important.

The Harrogate Agenda2. Real local democracy






"To that effect, our aim must be to invert the entire structure of the British state. Instead of the top-down systems, we need to start locally and create structures built from the bottom-up. [...]


What we are proposing is nothing short of revolution. The fundamental building blocks of our democracy should become independent local units which owe their existence to the people who live within their boundaries. Instead of being statutory bodies – i.e., defined by statute, from which they derive their powers, under the control of central government – they become constitutional entities. Their existence, powers and revenue-raising capabilities are defined by the people via the medium of constitutions, approved by local referendums.
These local authorities – which could be counties, cities or the former county boroughs – become independent legislatures is their own right. Whereas local authorities were once permitted to make by-laws, defined and permitted by central government, true local government makes its own laws in its own name. Each district makes all the laws for matters exclusive to its area, using powers defined by its own constitution, applicable within its own boundary.
Some might think that local authorities are too small to become legislatures, but size is not an issue. Few people for instance, realise that Iceland, with a population of 313,000, boasts fewer people than the London Borough of Croydon (363,000) and very substantially less than the Metropolitan District of Bradford (501,000).


Yet Iceland is a sovereign nation. It has its own government, its own parliament, its own laws, its police and even its own fishing policy and navy to enforce it. Despite its small size, the country does tolerably well, with a GDP of $12.57 billion (146th in the world) and a GDP per capita of $38,500, the 24th highest in the global league (higher than the UK’s $36,600, the 33rd highest).  It also has its own local government, with 59 local municipalities.

In Norway, which has approximately five million inhabitants, there are 428 municipalities and 19 county authorities. More than half the municipalities have less than 5,000 inhabitants and only 14 have more than 50,000. The largest municipality is Oslo, which is also a county. It has approximately 620,000 inhabitants. But the smallest municipality is Utsira with 209 inhabitants.[...]

In some respects, this also solves some of problems we have with MPs. One might expect seats to be apportioned on a county basis, with approximately one per 120,000 head of population. This ratio gives a House of Commons roughly the same size as it is at present. The boundaries would be fixed.  As population varied, so would the number of MPs, keeping constituencies wholly within the bounds of specific local authority areas.

The reckoning should be, incidentally, based on population rather than electorate. Our MPs should be representing the interests of all of their constituents, not just those who can vote.

However, some might argue that, with a reduced workload, fewer MPs would be needed, with a ratio of perhaps 200,000 or more for each representative, possibly stretching to one per 500,000 head of population. Where the United States House of Representatives manages to make do with 435 voting members, our House of Commons might be able to reduce itself to less than 300, saving expense. We might expect numbers in the House of Lords to be proportionately reduced – with perhaps only a hundred or so working members needed.
 Now we look at China: Demographics of China




"According to the 2010 census, 91.51% of the population was Han Chinese, and 8.49% were minorities."
What we have it appears to me is the transition of Tribal to Institutional/ Centralized Governance which is then dealing with Globalization and Market Forces acting on such institutions. Many people think the solution to this is "The Blob Solution": To increase the size of the units of these institutions to counter-act global forces. I don't think this is a very good solution for the future, it takes power away from people and that usually ends up badly for people. Secondly we can look at the effects of the "Blob Solution" today in the UK and indeed in the EU. Firstly our UK Referendum:-




 Readers can feel "relief" that the result the Legacy News-Media promotes and supports is as banal as they thought it was; and how fortunate to have the Legacy-News Media point it out!

Is it irony or hypocrisy or both? Either way this result is exactly mirrored in the above graph I've provided. The problem is "loss of knowledge" the greater the mass of people the message is communicated to from a Centralized source. Here the Blob Effect exerts it's effects to the detriment of increasing knowledge and making intelligent democratic decision-making. So China may find this supports their own system of governance. But it does in the sense of the scale of people they have to govern and the "homogeneity" of those people (91% self-identifying Han). 



 Legacy News-Media Visualized Accurately: This is really the source of news you're being provided with!!! (packet of BLANK photocopy paper)

Compare to Europe:-

EUROPE:

"Ancient Greece was the founding culture of Western civilisation. Western democratic and individualistic culture are often attributed to Ancient Greece. The Greeks city-state, the polis, was the fundamental political unit of classical Greece. In 508 BC, Cleisthenes instituted the world's first democratic system of government in Athens. The Greek political ideals were rediscovered in the late 18th century by European philosophers and idealists. Greece also generated many cultural contributions: in philosophy, humanism and rationalism under Aristotle, Socrates and Plato; in history with Herodotus and Thucydides; in dramatic and narrative verse, starting with the epic poems of Homer; in drama with Sophocles and Euripides, in medicine with Hippocrates and Galen; and in science with Pythagoras, Euclid and Archimedes. In the course of the 5th century BC, several of the Greek city states would ultimately check the Achaemenid Persian advance in Europe through the Greco-Persian Wars, considered a pivotal moment in world history, as the 50 years of peace that followed are known as Golden Age of Athens, the seminal period of ancient Greece that laid many of the foundations of Western civilization."

For whatever reasons, Greece, perhaps it's network of surrounding cultures fed into an increase culturally shared and synthesized knowledge as well as it's own forms of cultural transmission and education? I think this is the measure of success that is worth looking at more than territory size or number of people within a grouping system. If we look at the history of the European Union in The Great Deception (I recently reread it) it shows a lot of attempts to make a big group unit at the same time as not acknowledging a changing world nor the negatives of politicians power mongering more power between themselves as we've seen so often with the outcomes of the European Union. Instead I think the increase in Local Democracy via:-




Curiously I came up with a similar model of understanding to explain the differences between the Middle East and the Western Civilization and where Western Civilization might need to be focusing attention while being overly distracted by the Middle East's transition problems (their problems don't necessarily match our problems: See transitions T->I/M vs I/M->N): a dire shortage of alternative models.

At the same time as the explosion at Globalization, this leaves the present institutions simply failing people and resorting to reversals to Tribalism or else attempting to make democracy work at ever larger groups/blobs of people: The European Union ie Institutional Hierarchies further away from Local Democracy ie Family and Local Ties in touch with their personal experience and relationships.

Looked at via this particular model or perspective, it seems to me to connect a lot of different things that otherwise appear disparate:-
I think it's probably better for anyone interested to read the above articles then start to think in context to the above model how they all are connected; for example "understanding the troubles that afflict the Middle East" may actually improve Foreign Policy along with greater democratic input into our policies by our people. Suffice to say for the purposes of this blog a simple and honest conclusion:-

The result of this referendum does not matter either way. The process of knowledge dissemination via the various channels which will be an indication or measure of the quality of communication via mass media and now electronically see Dr. RAE North's comments EU Referendum: positives and negatives:-

"Interestingly, at the Dawlish meeting, back in September 2014, we predicted that the opposition would be majoring on the idea that leaving the EU would be a "leap in the dark". Here we are now, with the Prime Minister pushing precisely that as a slogan and the "Stronger In" campaign sending out leaflets with that emblazoned on the front.

Countering this meme will be our positive contribution to the campaign, funded largely by the generous contributions of our readers, which are still coming in via the direct route. Nonetheless, we still need additional funds to get the message out, and to support our blogging effort.

Our current plans take account of the Scottish experience where much of the campaigning took place on the internet. The battle was largely out of sight of the legacy media – which made the usual mistake of believing that it was dominating the debate"
this is changing the nature of how we communicate ideas and make decision-making at a political level. The quality of communication is a very strong measure of the underlying deficiencies or deficits in democracy: How open it is, how transparent (not behind closed-doors) and how diverse the ideas input into decision-making are. In answer to the question by Louisa Bojesen above: I'd prefer to live in a politically much more local system such as Norway, Iceland or Switzerland than China: The Blob Solution just increases the exertion of political weight over those below. When we see figures such as Trump or Johnson on our televisions and newspapers, all that's proving is:-



Pigeon-Holing Popularity = '50% Democracy' (at it's maximum)
  • A Democratic Deficit
  • Hierarchical Institutional Redundancy (News-Media, Parliament, Religion, Banks etc)
  • A lack of Alternative Solutions: reverting to old or present solutions to future problems

Wednesday, 20 January 2016

Journalism: Garbage In Garbage Out (GIGO)

Journalism: Questioning both INPUT & MODEL may help describe RESULTS

The above Garbage In Garbage Out (GIGO) is quite well known and I refer to the above model from this discussion from it's reference to application in computer programs. It's clear, simple, applicable for a general concept consideration of looking at a process and breaking down the stages to access quality and loss of quality and hence identifying WHERE. It's useful because we need to do a "sanity check" of results churned out and not blindly accept them, but also know how they are produced. Let's compare definitions from wikipedia for Journalism and GIGO:-
Journalism "is gathering, processing, and dissemination of news, and information related to news, to an audience. The word applies to the method of inquiring for news, the literary style which is used to disseminate it, and the activity (professional or not) of journalism."
"In a democratic society, however, access to free information plays a central role in creating a system of checks and balance, and in distributing power equally amongst governments, businesses, individuals, and other social entities. Access to verifiable information gathered by independent media sources, which adhere to journalistic standards, can also be of service to ordinary citizens, by empowering them with the tools they need in order to participate in the political process."

Garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) "in the field of computer science or information and communications technology refers to the fact that computers, since they operate by logical processes, will unquestioningly process unintended, even nonsensical, input data ("garbage in") and produce undesired, often nonsensical, output ("garbage out"). The principle applies to other fields as well."

Simply taking a snapshot of the front of Google News searching for "Brexit":-

  • The British public couldn't care less about Brexit and the EU referendum
  • Toxic infighting leaves rival Brexit groups in disarray
  • Yes, Brexit could very easily lead to the break-up of Britain
  • A background guide to “Brexit” from the European Union
  • Brexit will trigger collapse of EU, warns Poland - Telegraph
  • MPs to explore impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland
  • Labour donor says MPs should be allowed to campaign for Bre
  • Cameron to stay at No 10 if voters back Brexit, Grayling says
  • NO ESCAPE: Norway warns UK that Brexit WON'T free us fro

 The subjects of the above are:-
  • Atttitudes/polling
  • Political biff-bam tropes
  • FUD of breaking-up "could" being the usual operative word.
  • FUD of collapsing
  • NI very low order consideration pumped up almost to FUD level.
  • Westminster process of campaigning likely due to lack of Cameron Pro-EU information.
  • Westminster process of Cameron staying, pure media management
  • More FUD and in fact bias from our old "friend" the not Norway but: Erik O. Erikson as per The Columbo Method: Norway
 Legacy News-Media: Consume then Dispose = Garbage

These bar the Economist are mostly: "Subject-Verb-Object" Headline variations. Additionally, the descriptive components adverbs, adjectives are:-
  • Toxic
  • Disarray
  • break-up
  • collapse
  • warns
  • impact
  • no escape
  • warns
This is all very pumped-up emotive language, increasing the emotional pitch to draw attention.

This is the "data in". We can assess it's quality across a small snapshot of the Legacy News-Media. I leave that up to readers to consider. Now, assuming I am able as a journalist to use automated methods of collating all pertinent information on EU/Brexit each day, we can consider an article by Christopher Booker back in 2013:-


 Gordon Brown signing the Lisbon Treaty
"None of this bears any more relation to where we actually are, as one of the 27 fully signed-up members of the EU"

"The only way we can compel our EU partners to negotiate a new relationship which would still give us access to the single market is by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Only thus can we negotiate precisely the kind of relationship already enjoyed, in their different ways, by the two most prosperous countries in Europe, Norway and Switzerland, which trade as freely with the EU as we do, but without the rest of that political baggage that inspires such growing resentment not just in Britain, but in many other EU member states."
It's worth reading all of the article, to remember the preceding circus and garbage delivered to the public back in 2013. And how potent it seems to have all rotted away so quickly, now and reading now in 2016 produce a power stench of BS, as Booker has been proven correct. Interestingly we do have an article on Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty:-


Explains Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets out the procedure for leaving the EU

Dr. RAE North at EUReferendum.com mentions this in:EU Referendum: more unpredictable than ever-
"Meanwhile, back in the UK, the Constitution Unit in the department of political science at University College London, which claims to be the UK's "leading research body on constitutional change", has shredded Dominic Cummings's manic idea for a second referendum, entirely vindicating the stance taken by Arron Banks - something which hasn't begun to register with the legacy media."

It might be suggested that the article on Article 50 above is too technical for a common audience? But this is where things get interesting I would suggest: A Journalist in taking:-
  • Complex Information
  • Processing for Presentation
  • Publishing to a Wider Audience
This more or less unifies the definition of journalism and GIGO or it's thankful absence. You might call a journalist a "communication facilitator". Except if we look at the above and we consider it using the GIGO Model we're seeing far from being facilitators, they're detractors. Namely our Legacy News-Media appears to either be incapable of assorting priority and quality rating to information to process or the commercial pressures drive the processing itself to to be a Garbage Model. In both cases as the above diagram illustrates: Garbage Output.

Journalists: Wading around in the shallow "soda-waters" of commercial and SW1 circles have become stuck with "soda-anklet crystals" precipitating around their legs: Their environment has compromised their output.

Interestingly, there's an initiative in Norway to tackle this very problem:-



"As part of Norway's foreign and development policy, the Government will step up its efforts to support independent media, provide protection for people who express their opinions publicly, and improve public access to information. These are three cornerstones of the effort to ensure real participation and influence on decision-making processes."
Mr. Brexit picks up this angle also,  Why is the media ignoring the Vote Leave story? for another perspective on it. But it is right question: Who am I to suppose that I can ordain the correct prioritity of reporting, in this case on Article 50? I'm building a case that the Legacy News-Media is completely compromised, that crticicism of their model must be deep and possibly justifiable in expressing anger at the disservice and disrepaired state of Political Reporting. An example from The Huffington Post: What Norway, Iceland and Denmark Could Learn From The Azores; fortunately a commentator there corrects the author's mistakes.
>Iceland, Denmark, and Norway are all EU members

No. Denmark is. Iceland and Norway are not. As they don't want to be.

>who rely heavily on tourism

Bullshit. For Norway tourism is less than 3% of GDP, domestic tourism included. Cutting all tourists, would bring GDP back to 2014-levels.

Norway also have whale watching companies.
So what is the point in this article, except proving that the journalist never did her homework?

This is merely one journalist who has made a mistake. If you remember where were the journalists to correct our Prime Minister David Cameron when he was lying about Norway: EU Referendum: in the deadly grip of "Europe" as per Dr. RAE North correcting:-

"Yet, according to the Norwegian government's own figures, its total EU mandated payments (gross) are approximately £435m (€600m) per annum. With a population of five million, that is approximately £86 (€120) per head (gross). Net payments, however, are about £340m (€470m) per annum, or about £68 (€94) per head.

On the other hand, in 2014, the UK gross contributions to the EU were £19.2bn, less £4.9bn rebate. That gives an equivalent gross payment of £14.3bn. After rebates and other receipts, our net contribution was £9.8 bn. 

With a population of 64 million, that puts our gross contribution (without rebate) at £300 per head, our equivalent gross payment at £223 per head, and our net per capita payment £153 per annum – more than twice the Norwegian payments.

As such, what David Cameron is telling us is a lie. Our prime minister is telling a clear, direct and unequivocal lie. And this, it seems, is perfectly acceptable for a prime minister - as long as he is talking about the EU."

When there is a new article in The Financial Times Norway’s offshore drilling fight with EU a cautionary tale for UK from our old "friend" Erik O. Erikson and their own journalists:-

"But to many Norwegians, the arrangement is no model at all for a nation seeking freedom from Brussels’ oversight. Even though they have no involvement in creating EU regulation they are still bound to abide by much of it — as the offshore dispute makes clear.

“It is extremely strange that some in Britain think about copying Norway: it is the worst thing that could happen. We have to obey nearly all regulations,” said Erik Oddvar Eriksen, director of the Centre for European Studies at University of Oslo.

"Norwegians rejected joining the EU in 1972 and again in 1994 and Eurosceptic sentiment has soared in recent years, so much so that in the past decade every single opinion poll has found a majority opposed to joining. The most recent polling found 72 per cent of Norwegians opposed joining the EU." 
"Despite our Prime Minister and her party still dreaming of Norway to join, Norwegians are happier outside the EU. The mood is such that even 61 per cent of our Prime Minister’s own voters disagree with her position on Brussels."
Worse, The Express takes the liberty as above to equate one proponent of this Pro-EU side of the argument as equating to the entire Nation or "those that matter anyway": NO ESCAPE: Norway warns UK that Brexit WON’T free us from EU meddling.

Despite all the efforts to paint Norway as "bad" via GIGO from Politicians driving the agenda aided by Journalists, they are effectively damaging Democracy itself.

It would not surprise me that recent positive news on: Britain's 'Blue Belt' haven for our marine life doubles
"Spiny lobsters, "upside-down" stalked jellyfish and native oysters are among species ministers have promised to protect through a new series of marine conservation zones (MCZs)."


 
Is padding to the disastrous story of our Fisheries as chronicled in full here:-


 And worse we see more and more Legacy News-Media's attacking Norway, attempting to paint a picture of a:-

  • Whale-Murdering!
  • Rejected EU but Ruled by EU: eg drilling of oil
  • Fax Democracy cowled people
  • Norway is nothing like Great Britain (misrepresentation of EU/EEA vs EFTA/EEA)
  • Norway says Don't do what we did!
 etc. And again the same applies to UK: Taking Migration Debate off the table for a decade and a half. And indeed as we'll see in the next post Democracy off the table for decades, painting the UK with an "Inferiority Complex" and "None Know What Brexit will do." Garbage Model of Journalism.

The point is: We KNOW the state of the Legacy News-Media is not only a problem with their information selection (ie selective omission) but also the model they use too (bias in reporting) so where is the coverage of the issues of our waters to contextualize this "wonderful bit of uplifting news" on What we need is much more scrutiny and a lot less trust in the Financial Times and their deceptive ilk:-


In the next blog I will return to that question of democracy and the significance of Article 50. But coming back to how damaging their behaviour is to our democracy, it is worth asking to what extent do we express our anger or other displeasure with these people?

Over at EUReferendum.com Dr. RAE North considers this question in a comment that perhaps deserves it's own blog. It's food for thought on the damage being done by Journalists.

I think there's problems that can be explained using the above GIGO Model. I also think the PERSONA of the Journalist is part of the problem where "communication facilitator" becomes an excuse for "Garbage In"; the poor article by Frazer Nelson is I think an example of this journalists PERSONA being taken to the extreme and hence losing all touch with the actual information quality. I think in this respect to Politics/SW1 then the concept of those "Soda-Anklets" developing around the legs of the Journalists rubbing shoulders with so much prestige also can help describe the lowering in quality and sources of bias (omission and selection bias) in the actual Model of Journalism itself: We see dozens of examples of this from the BBC in particular; the hypocritical deference to our lying Prime Minister at the same time as the "interrogative interview technique" of lower ranked politicians and the like that is frankly pathetic and rude and cowardly in comparison to the former.

 "Garbage" acts as a barrier for democratic decision-making at the Nation level.

Witnessing such behaviour from our journalists are we not human in our reactions if we do express anger modified however by adequate explanation? To conclude: Namely, expertise is lacking and impartiality is lacking. For the public, publishing circulation without the above leads to detrimental effects on Democracy (see Norway initiative). Finally with reference to blogs where high quality information is available, the problem of information organization and discover in the Information Age becomes a big problem to solve - and that includes politics, I think. Do you?

Tuesday, 6 October 2015

Of Democracy and Time Dilation

In Joe Haldeman's science-fiction novel "The Forever War" the main character William Mandella is one of Earth's soliders involving in fighting an interstellar war with an alien race. One of the many deep problems and perhaps the deepest, these soldiers experience due to space-travel is "Time Dilation". For a few months spent travelling through space-time, Earth time has passed significantly more "Sol years" relatively. This is another truly strong example of successfully combining Literature and Science . Joe Haldane perfectly captures the emotional detachment and every widening gap and alienation of the protagonists caught in a struggle that bears less and less resemblance between the origins of their struggle and it's now future-present experience. This plausible fictional idea resonates so strongly in part because it reflects such fidelity with the real world experiences Joe Haldaman and his fellow Vietnam Veterans experienced themselves in that historic war on their return "home". I cannot recommend this story enough for it's own merits, both literary and scientific.

In Robert Oulds speech (in above blog), he talks about who and how we are governed in the UK and why this forms the basis for British Exit (Brexit) of Withdrawal from the EU Treaty Structures and concerning the CIB (Campaign For An Independent Britain)
"They've been at the forefront since the 1960's"
 It is almost impossible for me to be able to relate back to that time period, to appreciate the length of time that some people have attempted to put forward arguments and constructive criticism concerning the European Economic Community as it was named then (see Scruton's comments on the "old gods vs the new god" in The Road To The European Union and now which is called the European Union (for how much longer?). Much like The Boiling Frog (of the same blogroll name) given enough time the frog undergoes a dramatic change without realizing it.


Irrespective of the full accuracy of the science, as a metaphor it still works. And it also corresponds our thought between "Time Dilation" and our subjective experience of time. In You know, we're just not reaching that guy. it was pointed out that the media exploits or at least implements the understanding of the difference between people engaging with content and people "blanking" such content: Afterall their commercial success depends on such an understanding and you come across such admissions: "Building online experiences" as part of the language:-

"...commercial competition in a market of consumers who can be more efficiently exploited (aka "monetized") via techniques to create an emotional reaction. This in turn transforms a mere "event" into an "experience" to use further technical language from an altogether different subject domain."
 As per the above again, The Road To The European Union, drawing out our perspective of Britain/UK over historic time helped to provide some broad context to how our nation has formed and how democracy has developed equally with conflicts. There the increase in connectivity over space was observed upwards towards United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) with it's x56 members compared with the European Unions (x28 of which x19 are EZ) of which all are signatories to the European Economic Area (EEC x31 members) which includes the x3 of the x4 European Free Trade Association (EFTA) with the exception being Switzerland which holds Bi-Lateral Agreements solely with the EU.

EFTA is similarly useful to demonstrate their spatial arrangement with both Britain/UK and with Europe and with the EU. In particular with Iceland and Norway being "Natural Neighbours" to Britain/UK.

However this is a tangent, the focus here is to now look at the "Time Dimension" to our arguments, and our Subjective experience of time as per the above according to how we are governed democratically. Here's a time-line of the Major EU Treaties compared to the General Elections in the UK/Britain from 1945-2015

Comparison: EU Treaties vs UK General Elections Frequency

 I've left the accession Treaties from the above graphic. But looking at the General Elections frequency vs European average Frequency:

av. RATIO: 5 Years : 9 Years

I also included the planned New Fiscal Treaty post-2020 pre-2025 and assigned 2022. In any case from the Lisbon Treaty -> New Treaty post-2020 it's still at least 11 years. Our immediate comparison is therefore representative and to consider the pattern this represents to our democracy:-

Less use the above to illustrate:

  • BLUE = our General Elections periodicity
  • RED = EU Major Treaties.

We fit in 2:1 ration of General Elections per Major Treaty or wavelength frequency (the graph even provides this approximation with x2 1/2 waves + x1 complete wave, serendipity). Interestingly the EU is actually similar to China's Elections on a 10 year cycle and not surprisingly: The general rule could be that the larger the Entity the more requirement for processing of information from more parts ie population size (EU: 508,191,116 ; China: 1,376,049,000) and complexity of administration scale. This also can be represented in the amplitude or height of the wave.

To avoid over-cooking the "model"; part of the major reason the EU is so poorly understood to not only the public but also politicians and media, due to both it's size but also it's own much longer periodicity and larger "political cogs and gears" turning as we compared it to in: Jean Monnet's "Engrenage": Destination unknown? If the amplitude reflects the size of polical policy powers transferred from member states to the EU in comparison to what we the people are able to vote on more frequently via our General elections then simply arguing in terms of:-

  • Significance of Policies passed to the EU
  • Time duration between each major treaty
  • We have never voted on any of the above Major EU Treaties!
On these principles and they are quantified principles which makes them hold serious practical value, alone the European Union is worth voting to leave, purely in terms of people being in more control of their own policy powers and hence bargaining position with any politicians performing work in politics serving the nation(s), it's people. And we come back to the last time we were able to vote seriously in the 1975 Referendum (as opposed to the European Elections for MEP's to the EU Parliament which have a lower ratio of representation: Electoral Commission Recommended distribution of UK MEP seats)

In "The 1975 Referendum" by David Butler and Uwe Kitzinger, we can see how different the conditions were than they are today:

It is very hard to relate to in my opinion, but very necessary to fully understand also. Our General Elections which hold 5 year cycles are already for a population of ~65m people which ends in either "Red" or "Blue" parties in power feels very disenfranchising as per voter turn-out: General election turnout 1945 – 2015





Policies we vote on as democratic decision-makers is diluted by the EU's "Pooling of Sovereignty" in it's own language to which we do not gain serious voting. Dilution of our representation further increases per ratio of MEP to voter and then again per UK MEP per vote in the EU Parliament and again beyond the Pariament to the Commission level. What we need is to merge the scale of time of democratic participation with the "quantitative deduction" of democratic representation.

Before looking at the quantitative arguments in more detail, the concept of "Time Dilution" needs to be appreciated. The above all shows the huge "Democratic Deficit" of the EU to which Roger Scruton pointed out that for example that Gordon Brown picked from his own Labour Party in government to become our unelected Prime Minister has the power to sign The Lisbon Treaty on behalf of the UK people, alone:-

All this is very important and needs to be accessed quantitatively. However, before that, the question of subjective experience of time needs to be apprehended. Namely a smaller unit of democratic grouping of people (demos) can have a faster periodicity relationship between policy creation, decision and consensus and execution until the next full wave of the process or in usual parlance "cycle" or even "iteration". Not only this but these smaller units will subjectively be involved in the process over shorter time-frames. When we hold major decisions or take important actions are experience of the world intensifies at these moments which transform from "events" to "experiences" which could be emotionally represented as such:-

Our subjective experience of time appreciates it's own kind of "Time Dilation": In an event where forces combine in direction where we don't have to engage or take a decision outside our normal "auto-pilot" state of mind, time flows quickly and less noticeably. However, when we have an emotional engagement via decision or action, the "tension" creates a subjective extension of time as our attention is focused on the significant experience at hand. Absolutely or objectively time is the same but relatively or subjectively it is experienced very differently.

It does not seem so surprising when Douglas Carswell writing British democracy is dying, replaced by a smug, self-serving technocracy about Pro-EU Peter Mandelson's statement that:-

“The age of purely representative democracy is slowly coming to an end.”
The self-evident reasons in which they surround themselves, the Centralization of Power in combination with the trend of Globalization, appears to make this prophesy appear to true. But what we're seeing is that the EU Treaties themselves drivers "Political Uncertainty" and hence in fact are very susceptible to Globalization's rate of change and hence the opposite of what is needed:-

Antifragile: "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty"
In a sense democracy is "meant" to act like this, in allowing different arguments to compete with each other, where central planning could not possibly prescribe or predict all possibilities. Taleb suggests that democracy allows us to "kick out our elected leaders" and hence in order to change our execution process of decision-making to improve it's performance. Tony Benn said a similar thing:-


Just as people make decisions when they're engaged they can also be limited in their decision-making abilities via increasing the emotional tension via coercion: ensuring people remain in a state of anxiety and loop from anxiety to anxiety leading to indecision, so that the politicians can make their choices for them and deprive them of their true freedoms.

If people are given more information and education, and more opportunities to vote more locally frequently to their own self-interest then democracy itself is flowing not stagnating.

In our decision-making processes as individuals and as people we need to appreciate that direct participation over a suitable periodicity is positive to both active engagement and indeed continuous education of people about politics and their part to play in the nation's decision-making process. The alternative is the phenomenon that "William Mandella" experiences in the "Forever War":-


"Relativity means that for every few months' tour of duty centuries have passed on Earth, isolating the combatants ever more from the world for whose future they are fighting."