Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label Dominic Cummings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dominic Cummings. Show all posts

Wednesday, 10 February 2016

Brexit: Not far now, to Sugarcandy Mountain!

Moses The Raven: "Sugarcandy Mountain, that happy country where we poor animals shall rest forever from our labours!"

In George Orwell's Animal Farm the character Moses The Raven is described as such:-
"The pigs had an even harder struggle to counteract the lies put about by Moses, the tame raven. Moses, who was Mr. Jones's especial pet, was a spy and a tale-bearer, but he was also a clever talker. He claimed to know of the existence of a mysterious country called Sugarcandy Mountain, to which all animals went when they died. It was situated somewhere up in the sky, a little distance beyond the clouds, Moses said. In Sugarcandy Mountain it was Sunday seven days a week, clover was in season all the year round, and lump sugar and linseed cake grew on the hedges. The animals hated Moses because he told tales and did no work, but some of them believed in Sugarcandy Mountain, and the pigs had to argue very hard to persuade them that there was no such place."


Dr. RAE North writing in Strategy ten: the need for an exit plan:-

"Anything as complex and challenging as leaving the European Union will present significant problems. Therefore, you do not need a focus group to tell you that, when confronting the prospect of an EU referendum, voters will need to be reassured that a choice to leave is not a leap in the dark.

That much has been obvious to anyone who has even begun to look at the issue. More specifically, I have long argued that we would need to produce a credible exit plan. Without that – as I was writing in May 2008, over seven years ago – our opposition would rely on the status quo to support their case and, in particular, the assertion that there is no alternative (TINA) to our membership of the European Union.


It actually took five years, until June 2013, for the IEA to trigger the process of producing an exit plan, with its Brexit Prize. But so badly managed was the competition – and then ultimately rigged – that the winning entries added nothing to the debate and have disappeared into the obscurity they rightly deserve."
 Sugarcandy Mountain!

There is no such thing as "Sugarcandy Mountain" but there is such as thing as people who make a good living for themselves selling it:-


"In Mr Hannan's world, however, time has stood still. The idea of a staged exit is rigorously excluded while he rehearses the same issues he was writing about ten years ago, in terms that have scarcely changed. Laboriously, he goes on a hunt for the ideal "model", with a tedious and somewhat flawed review of the Norway-EEA and Swiss arrangements.

This leads him then to conclude that Norway "gets a better deal than Britain currently does", and – quite wrongly – that Switzerland gets "a better deal than Norway". And upon this flawed assumption, he then drops into an exposition of the better deal fallacy as he assert that "a post-EU Britain, with 65 million people to Switzerland's eight million and Norway's five, should expect something better yet"."


"One of the converts to this idea is Ruth Lea. She was formerly an advocate of the so-called "Swiss option" (page 27), so she now stands – without explanation - completely at odds with her earlier position. But we have also seen an intervention from Global Britain." 

 
There is a telling difference between us lesser mortals and men such as John Redwood. We believe that we need the 419 pages of Flexcit, and something like three years of study, to define how we leave the EU. Redwood believes he can do it in a mere 417 words, contradicting the bulk of what we have to say in the process.

Both writers take exception to Mr Redwood's many assertions, including the most egregious of them which have him declaring that "the Leave campaign does not want the UK to seek a Norway style deal", that in order to leave "the UK could simply amend the 1972 European Communities Act" and that, after leaving, we could "simply rely on World Trade Organisation membership to stop tariffs and other barriers being imposed"."


"Amazingly, the Eurosceptic "aristocracy" simply can't get their soggy little brains round the idea that it would be extremely unwise to attempt a "big bang" separation from the EU. They also have difficulty with the idea that the two year period allowed for the initial Article 50 exit negotiations isn't long enough to broker a bespoke free trade agreement – which can take 5-15 years to conclude."


"Sugarcandy Mountain, that happy country where we poor animals shall rest for ever from our labours!"

"My answer on what the alternative plan should be called is "WTO Plus". All other benefits - democratic control, border control, economic control - flow from it. It is a simple and genuine alternative plan. So, you may ask, what on earth is it? 


My plan for the UK outside of the EU combines a guaranteed basic trade deal based on current World Trade Organisation arrangements with a better free trade deal on top.

The basic deal is guaranteed whatever happens, as the UK and EU are both World Trade Organisation members in their own right and must follow its rules or be hauled into an international court.

This worst case scenario would mean tariffs on some goods. But I think we can do better than that. There are already indications that German car manufacturers would ensure their government does not impose tariffs on UK cars – why penalise BMW-owned Minis and Rolls Royces? There would be such demand from all sides for a better deal"
He then rattles off a list of Pro-Brexit Arguments: Beyond the Mirage:-




 Back to Moses The Raven:-

"In the middle of the summer Moses the raven suddenly reappeared on the farm, after an absence of several years. He was quite unchanged, still did no work, and talked in the same strain as ever about Sugarcandy Mountain. He would perch on a stump, flap his black wings, and talk by the hour to anyone who would listen. "Up there, comrades," he would say solemnly, pointing to the sky with his large beak– "up there, just on the other side of that dark cloud that you can see– there it lies, Sugarcandy Mountain, that happy country where we poor animals shall rest for ever from our labours!" He even claimed to have been there on one of his higher flights, and to have seen the everlasting fields of clover and the linseed cake and lump sugar growing on the hedges. Many of the animals believed him. Their lives now, they reasoned, were hungry and laborious; was it not right and just that a better world should exist somewhere else? A thing that was difficult to determine was the attitude of the pigs towards Moses. They all declared contemptuously that his stories about Sugarcandy Mountain were lies, and yet they allowed him to remain on the farm, not working, with an allowance of a gill of beer a day."

So you see it's quite useful having a clever talker persuading people that Paradise is just around the corner if they continue "working harder for a better Britain!" supporting their betters on such matters...

Sunday, 17 January 2016

Pro-Brexit Arguments: Beyond the Mirage

The promised political oasis awaits you... oh reader; read on and learn nothing!

I think I can say with some small satisfaction, I'm on the same wave-length as Dr. RAE North at EUReferendum.com in the latest blog: EU Referendum: fighting through the chaff. It's worth quoting a significant chunk:-
"In campaigning terms relative to this referendum, "chaff" does an analogous job – spurious arguments coming from all directions which confuse the issues and make it almost impossible to conduct a proper debate.

For instance, given the argument over the source of regulation, and the impact of leaving the EU on the food industry, it should be fairly simple to establish the facts. Legislation in the food sector, perhaps more than any other industry, is internationalised, which means that the overall impact should be slight.

After all, in the field, we have Codex Alimentarius, the OIE, the IPPC, UNECE and the OECD, amongst others all contributing to the body of international standards which filter down under the aegis of the WTO phytosanitary agreement and the agreement on technical barriers to trade, to determine much of the content of the EU's Single Market acquis.

Thus, when we explored this issue, we found a Norwegian official who did not feel that his country was in any way disadvantaged by not having voting rights in the EU. As far as he was concerned, the international bodies, not the EU – were the "top table"."
Effectively the Guardian piece Brexit a 'nightmare scenario' for UK food and drink business is "chaff". They could have chosen numerous different policy areas and the legacy news-media continues to do so - to the same effect: Producing more chaff: In effect the cumulative outcome is a Mirage Argument that involves pointless battles between confused people on both sides of the debate and a decline in argument quality. This time it's Food Regulations; I'm sure there will be a next time with yet another Policy area inducing FUD from the Guardian and the like:-


Legacy News-Media: "The Rat In The Room"

 Leave HQ already warned that Pro-Brexit arguments are not about reducing Regulations (they'll be harmonized, consolidated, rationalized via the Globalization process now) in The big four Brexit Nos.


1. Don't talk about how much money Brexit will save [edit:(or lose!)]




 Open Europe, IEA, CER love the "Angels Dancing on Pins" Arguments


2. Don't talk about leaving the single market

 Legacy News-Media FUD: "Emotional Anxiety-Loop Indecision/Freeze response inducement"

3. Don't talk about cutting regulations 


25 Years Out of Date Argument: Little EU loss of perspective arguments

Here's The Economist huffing and puffing as usual: A background guide to “Brexit” from the European Union about very little to do with Brexit other than their "sophisticated presentation on mirages": A background guide to “Brexit” from the European Union:-
"British trade with other EU countries has risen rapidly since 1973, though as the European economy has slowed, its share of the total is declining (the EU now takes over 51% of British exports of goods, and close to 45% if services are added in). Yet whether Britain is in or out, the EU will be a key partner. For non-members such as Norway or Switzerland, trade with the EU makes up a bigger share of the total than it does for Britain. The effects of EU membership on trade patterns are difficult to measure, but John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, and colleagues have carried out a modelling exercise which concluded that Britain’s trade with the rest of the EU was 55% greater than it would have been if outside."

4. Don't talk about controlling immigration




 Cameron will Trump Farage's demands: "Just enough to win a referendum"


Political (mirage) Success = Measures that can be done and will be offered by the EU

With Cameron hopes for EU concessions in 'second-tier membership' for UK and applying a sort of Emergency Break and multiple other small print additions, this is dealing with a derivative argument of The Great Deception - only an worse only politically - not Democratically nor Pragmatically across full scope of Migration Policy control (decision-making) and execution (management).

And here we need to cut through the chaff and look at what the Main Argument looks like:-
Most Of Our Politics is ABOVE our own system (electorate disconnection) and concerns our own politicians far more than we the electorate do.

There's two fundamental problems here:
  1. The super-machinery of the EU is designed for forging a Political Entity above the National Member state.
  2. Our own National "super-machinery" has been hijacked to serve this purpose and this is named The Great Deception
Most of the arguments we've seen above and that shape the conceptual understanding of so many people is as Dr. RAE North points out is "Chaff". Here we can compare the other side of the EU Argument:-

  1. Political Structure = Little EU (above) = Remain
  2. Regulatory Structure = Globalization! (below) = Leave


Quoting Dr. RAE North again:-
"Think then how much more advanced the "remain" campaign could be if two years or more ago, when Flexcit started to take the shape that we now see, journalists and activists had recognised the work for what it is. But, with elements on both sides studiously ignoring Flexcit, we have the bizarre position where they are falling over each other to complain that there is nothing."

Namely we see the Mirages in the Legacy News-Media from both sides of the argument. Eg Dominic Cummings is one of the worst culprits as per Mr. Brexit:
Dominic Cummings, his naked lies and supposed legal alternatives to Article 50



 "Any member state may decide, in accordance with its constitutional rules, to withdraw from the union."

It's really worth understanding Article 50 Lisbon Treaty as per Leave HQ once again: Article 50 And Withdrawal: An explainer. And why if there's one thing in the entire EU Referendum / Brexit argument we all should get right on all sides of the argument, it is Article 50:-

Here's why: REAL POWER:-



Friday, 16 October 2015

Understanding The Mountains of Madness

UK Politics: At the Mountains of Madness

In H.P. Lovecraft's story, At the Mountains of Madness, an expedition to Antarctica in 1930, discovers the remnant's of an alien civilization's history on Earth, both biological, cosmic, geological on a vast unimaginable scale. The book deals in themes of horror of the unknown, of the incomprehensible scale (for example Deep Time in science) and how all these things conspire to produce madness in people not able or equipped to cope with such "traumas to their accepted reality"; as these mountains rise, larger even than Everest in the Himalayas, symbolizes: The walls to what people can comprehend, beyond which our minds would be shattered if we dared to venture, encountering the unfathomable monsters that lurk there.
"the mind seemed to grow giddy by looking so far into the abyss of time". ~ Deep Time: John Playfair, June 1788 on the age of rock strata.
Similar themes shape on a more personal and psychological level, the writing of Philip K. Dick where the veil of reality is lifted and glimpses beyond trigger a chain-reaction of implications for the present reality or else the veil is entirely ripped to shreds irrevocably. In these stories the "veil" either took the form of "altered states of consciousness" or the "machinations of authoritarian governments" on the people.

Previously we looked at in Pattern Recognition "The Bruges Group (see side bar) provides a mountain of quotes supporting The Great Deception is genuinely another pattern..." and before that the "political orthodoxy of our EU Membership from the mouths of our Prime Ministers in their own words.

Scale & Calculation: The virtual reality "code" generated in The Matrix

A similar theme of a "mind-blowing revelation" in it's sheer scale of deception is found in the "cyberpunk sci-fi" movie-story: The Matrix. And here the challenges of "a prison for the mind" are considered, not unlike in a real comparative sense the sheer scale of orthodoxy or dogma on thousands to millions of people. Or perhaps as relevant to our "Representative Democracy" the huge scale of apathy and low-turn out and participation by people who have "better things to do":-

Large crowd of Christmas shoppers enjoying London's Oxford Street festive decorations

And so the extraordinarily interesting question arises: If people have been plied with propaganda to accept a particular political norm for decades: How do you reverse some of that process? Political parties in our "Representative Democracy" are not in the business of training and developing good arguments in their supporters, they're in the business of recruitment for millions of people, as per the General Elections results in the UK for 2015:-


  Scale of Recruitment in British Politics per Party: 2015 General Elections



YouGov Poll break-down of Pro-EU vs Anti-EU Support


 Dr. RAE North chronicles, EU politics: Barroso's swan song :-
However, at nearly 9,000 words, this is a seriously long speech, almost of the style we'd expect from a Soviet leader, rather than a soon to be ex-Commission president, a man who tells us he has been "actively involved in the process of European integration over the last 30 years". [...]

Barroso then turns to the relationship between the EU and the UK. He "passionately believes" that Europe is stronger with the UK as its member, and that the UK "is stronger as a member of the EU than on its own". But he acknowledges that for historical, geopolitical and economic reasons, "the case of the UK may be seen as a special one".

Precisely because of this, Barroso thinks it would be a mistake to transform an exception for the UK into a rule for everybody else. We can, and should, he says, "Specificity", inasmuch as this does not threaten the Union's overall coherence. But we should not confound this specificity with an overall situation of the Union.
If you remember this was (Summer 2014) and now is after The Greek "Specificity or Crisis". Our own politicians are of a like-mind. They too are wondering how to deal with the UK's "specificity" in the EU. And we come back to our question above, looking at the sheer scale of numbers of voters involved and the "inertia" of thinking that hence arises due to the Status Quo Effect.

Red + Violet = GREEN

We've come all the signs that indicate RED = Pro-EU (see Pattern Recognition) support and VIOLET = ANTI-EU (See UKIP + Leave.EU via Fatal Car Crash: Two Dead After Car Accident) support framing the debate in The Westminster Political-Media Bubble and hence reflected across the Legacy News-Media page after page of "Mountains Of Madness":-
Frog Fractions: The Boiling Frog: EU Referendum: 51%

"Assuming therefore, for the sake of argument, a turnout of between 65-70%, this would leaves us with between 29.3 million and 31.5 million potential voters. To achieve the magic 51% we would need to convince around 16 million voters."
And now the same process is shaping the upcoming Referendum, from Dominic Cummings' blog:
Roughly one third of the British public is very hostile to the EU, one third is pro-EU, a fifth wants to leave but is worried about jobs and living standards, and a fifth doesn’t know (perhaps doesn’t care). In the 1970s, the EEC was seen as a modernising project and connected to Britain’s recovery from basket case status. Echoes of this were still there during the euro battle 1999-2002. This feeling seems to have died. Focus groups strongly support the data above and suggest that the financial crisis, the Greek euro crisis, and the migrant crisis all played an important part in changing sentiment.
If one looks at this crucial ‘swing’ fifth, they now break 59:41 for ‘remain’. This suggests that if the ‘leave’ campaign persuades these people that a ‘leave’ vote will be followed by a free trade deal and friendly cooperation, then the ‘leave’ campaign will win. The ‘remain’ campaign has many advantages, such as its grip on conventional wisdom in institutions such as the BBC and CBI (which were deeply wrong on the euro). Its fundamental position, however, clearly has significant weaknesses.
Dr. RAE North notes EU Referendum: a particularly stupid idea that this GREEN = Rebranded Dogma to coral millions along the latest twist in our Argumentum Ad Infinitum aka The Great Deception. As you'd expect this approach is hugely popular with the Westminster Political-Media Bubble as Dr. RAE North once again observes: EU Referendum: when "no" means "yes"

In the above, there is no definition of The Great Deception (The Cage: Safe but trapped or Free but in danger?); it's replaced by The Mountains Of Madness, how The Referendum (The Cage Door) will be conducted via 2 superficial opposite reflections (Red vs Violet) and no definition of The Positive Vision outside the EU (Beyond The Cage). For this we'd need people to understand that "white light", not this "green light" of deception and self-deception that will be the properties of Campaigns Of Great Concern but little real value. Herding into "The Middle" merely produces the madness in the above picture.