Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Showing posts with label CER. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CER. Show all posts

Sunday, 1 May 2016

Article 50: "Kept In The Dark" not "A Leap In The Dark"



The above is perhaps one of my favourite The Far Side cartoons by Gary Larson. I've done some TEFL work so it's satisfying in that context. I've also done some science, so the combination is particularly appealing to me.

In the above cartoon, the scientists are adept at measuring the sounds of the Dolphins and matching patterns of sound and repeated uses of such... but the enjoyment is the fact that all they really need but entirely lack is a sense of the Spanish language and then they'd be perfectly fluent in "Dolphin" who themselves appear to be the intelligent actors attempting to communicate to the "dumb" human scientists!

It might seem there's little application to politics directly, which is correct. But it does remind me of the strange situation where the basic or core rules of political process are not established and agreed upon perhaps by an "Electoral Commission" inquiry that asserts some "ground rules and factual foundations" for the campaign to proceed by... on either side of the Referendum process at large?

There's a very basic secret being displayed here in our politics, which our Dolphins above can help describe for us:-

A factual assertion of rules, opens up the logical legitimacy and indeed practical possibility, hence, politically of a fair choice either to Remain a member of the European Union or else to Leave the membership of the European Union.

If the rules were asserted and hence agreed, then the above knowledge would become "common knowledge", unexceptional and in fact ordinary: It would effectively cease to be a tool of power of politicians OVER people: It would radically be the gift of power in the hands of people.

What however we see instead is the replacement of this knowledge of these rules with the attempt to guide peoples' intuition towards ensuring any choice to Leave appears NOT to be based on any rules, but to be emotionally wishful or emotionally regressive or emotionally uninformed. It is beyond count how much this is backed up again and again and again in the prevailing politics, at present.

The Basis of All Propaganda: Even the smallest crack will allow the brightness of light to replace darkness and show the "way to the wider world"


But I think what is driving this failure to establish the fundamental rules, a spoiling motivation behind such a failure can only be deducted from such lack of sensible diligence to such a significant political decision-making watershed in the UK's history, is the dread of those who hold power to allow a glimmer of light to shine from behind the opening of the smallest crack of this Brexit Door: For this would allow the consent amongst all involved that it is possible to leave the European Union and to do so politically in a sensible and mature and responsible way.

And once that becomes a matter of fact, devoid of emotional energy and sound and fury, then it leaves space for: "What next?" And once that engine of decision-making starts moving forwards, I think there could be a substantial shift in peoples' attitudes and hence polling of confidence and expression of self-determination.

People want to know "What next?" it's so much more rewarding to know "What next?" and there is one way of achieving this: Choosing for oneself "What next?" and not allowing a small subset of warped politicians to choose for us instead and deprive us of this.


  • fears that the divorce would be turbulent
  • a polite way of saying that Britain could expect no favours from its jilted partners.
It's interesting that "fear-mongering" is a kind of common knowledge but it is commandeered by the politicians for their own agendas.

First the correct assertion of Article 50 is corrupted by CER using an increase in emotional pitch via "soap opera" language.

But this is reinforced by the Brexit likes of Vote Leave:-
  1. "Brexiters claim that this is all scare-mongering. Lord Lawson, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, thinks that article 50 is another example of a Brussels diktat constraining sovereign member-states, and suggests that the UK could simply ignore it.
  2. Others still cling to Boris Johnson’s idea, now recanted, that a vote to leave does not have to mean exit, and that Britain could negotiate better terms for its membership than Cameron obtained. Brexiters are confident that the rest of the EU will have no choice but to offer good terms to the world’s fifth largest economy.
  3. And if that does not work, Michael Gove, the pro-Brexit justice minister, has said that Britain could threaten to block other European projects if the EU did not give the UK what it wanted." 
 All these Vote Leave results:-
  • Denial of the Rules of EU Members on Withdrawal specifically.
  • Referendum vote for another Referendum on Reform (extended negotiation) again contradicting the EU Treaty Rules.
  • Zero-Sum Relationship asserted above the equality of rules.
All the above however are in fact based on false intuition building in the British public over the primacy of the rules that are currently operating. Keeping Pro-Brexit supporters in the dark with false expectations and a portfolio of phony politics.

Vote Leave: Ensuring voters are "kept in the dark" and ensuring Brexit is "out of reach"


So we see, that Vote Leave utterly fail because they use the "false intuition" form of argument equally as the Remain advocates to ensure people are "kept in the dark" which is then used as "a leap in the dark" by the Remain advocates to falsely intuit this message to the voters.

As for the rest of the CER article, Agata GostyƄska-Jakubowska could just simply read and refer to FLEXCIT: The Market Solution on how the negotiations would need to be handled, but like the entire charade that counts for adult decision-making, the omission of FLEXCIT is deafening by it's absence.







































"Then, Booker turn to the main theme of his column, headed: "Brexiteers! We need an exit strategy and we need it now!". Here, he also picks up on the theme he had raised earlier this month, observing that "even more astonishing ignorance of the nature and rules of the EU" is that being displayed by the main players in our referendum battle, not least, alas, by those running the official "leave" campaign.

This begins with their amazing inability to recognise that the only possible legal way for any country to leave the EU is by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which derives from the insistence back in the Eighties of Altiero Spinelli, the "father of the European Union" that his Union must not be "a prison" from which no country could escape.

Again and again, when two very senior experts on EU law gave evidence to a House of Lords committee on 8 March, they emphasised that Article 50 is the only conceivable mechanism for a country to leave - all it seems falling on deaf ears to those who should know this before anything else.

The transcript of the oral evidence is here, with supplementary written evidence here. There is also written evidence from David Edward here. The crucial words are: "Article 50 is the only route for withdrawal consistent with the UK's legal obligations".

This makes even more terrifying, says Booker, the quite deliberate refusal of the Leave campaigners to come up with a convincing and coherent exit plan which could reassure voters that, by leaving the EU we would not be excluded from the European Economic Area, allowing us to continue trading in the single market just as we do now"


Sunday, 17 January 2016

Pro-Brexit Arguments: Beyond the Mirage

The promised political oasis awaits you... oh reader; read on and learn nothing!

I think I can say with some small satisfaction, I'm on the same wave-length as Dr. RAE North at EUReferendum.com in the latest blog: EU Referendum: fighting through the chaff. It's worth quoting a significant chunk:-
"In campaigning terms relative to this referendum, "chaff" does an analogous job – spurious arguments coming from all directions which confuse the issues and make it almost impossible to conduct a proper debate.

For instance, given the argument over the source of regulation, and the impact of leaving the EU on the food industry, it should be fairly simple to establish the facts. Legislation in the food sector, perhaps more than any other industry, is internationalised, which means that the overall impact should be slight.

After all, in the field, we have Codex Alimentarius, the OIE, the IPPC, UNECE and the OECD, amongst others all contributing to the body of international standards which filter down under the aegis of the WTO phytosanitary agreement and the agreement on technical barriers to trade, to determine much of the content of the EU's Single Market acquis.

Thus, when we explored this issue, we found a Norwegian official who did not feel that his country was in any way disadvantaged by not having voting rights in the EU. As far as he was concerned, the international bodies, not the EU – were the "top table"."
Effectively the Guardian piece Brexit a 'nightmare scenario' for UK food and drink business is "chaff". They could have chosen numerous different policy areas and the legacy news-media continues to do so - to the same effect: Producing more chaff: In effect the cumulative outcome is a Mirage Argument that involves pointless battles between confused people on both sides of the debate and a decline in argument quality. This time it's Food Regulations; I'm sure there will be a next time with yet another Policy area inducing FUD from the Guardian and the like:-


Legacy News-Media: "The Rat In The Room"

 Leave HQ already warned that Pro-Brexit arguments are not about reducing Regulations (they'll be harmonized, consolidated, rationalized via the Globalization process now) in The big four Brexit Nos.


1. Don't talk about how much money Brexit will save [edit:(or lose!)]




 Open Europe, IEA, CER love the "Angels Dancing on Pins" Arguments


2. Don't talk about leaving the single market

 Legacy News-Media FUD: "Emotional Anxiety-Loop Indecision/Freeze response inducement"

3. Don't talk about cutting regulations 


25 Years Out of Date Argument: Little EU loss of perspective arguments

Here's The Economist huffing and puffing as usual: A background guide to “Brexit” from the European Union about very little to do with Brexit other than their "sophisticated presentation on mirages": A background guide to “Brexit” from the European Union:-
"British trade with other EU countries has risen rapidly since 1973, though as the European economy has slowed, its share of the total is declining (the EU now takes over 51% of British exports of goods, and close to 45% if services are added in). Yet whether Britain is in or out, the EU will be a key partner. For non-members such as Norway or Switzerland, trade with the EU makes up a bigger share of the total than it does for Britain. The effects of EU membership on trade patterns are difficult to measure, but John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, and colleagues have carried out a modelling exercise which concluded that Britain’s trade with the rest of the EU was 55% greater than it would have been if outside."

4. Don't talk about controlling immigration




 Cameron will Trump Farage's demands: "Just enough to win a referendum"


Political (mirage) Success = Measures that can be done and will be offered by the EU

With Cameron hopes for EU concessions in 'second-tier membership' for UK and applying a sort of Emergency Break and multiple other small print additions, this is dealing with a derivative argument of The Great Deception - only an worse only politically - not Democratically nor Pragmatically across full scope of Migration Policy control (decision-making) and execution (management).

And here we need to cut through the chaff and look at what the Main Argument looks like:-
Most Of Our Politics is ABOVE our own system (electorate disconnection) and concerns our own politicians far more than we the electorate do.

There's two fundamental problems here:
  1. The super-machinery of the EU is designed for forging a Political Entity above the National Member state.
  2. Our own National "super-machinery" has been hijacked to serve this purpose and this is named The Great Deception. 
Most of the arguments we've seen above and that shape the conceptual understanding of so many people is as Dr. RAE North points out is "Chaff". Here we can compare the other side of the EU Argument:-

  1. Political Structure = Little EU (above) = Remain
  2. Regulatory Structure = Globalization! (below) = Leave


Quoting Dr. RAE North again:-
"Think then how much more advanced the "remain" campaign could be if two years or more ago, when Flexcit started to take the shape that we now see, journalists and activists had recognised the work for what it is. But, with elements on both sides studiously ignoring Flexcit, we have the bizarre position where they are falling over each other to complain that there is nothing."

Namely we see the Mirages in the Legacy News-Media from both sides of the argument. Eg Dominic Cummings is one of the worst culprits as per Mr. Brexit:
Dominic Cummings, his naked lies and supposed legal alternatives to Article 50



 "Any member state may decide, in accordance with its constitutional rules, to withdraw from the union."

It's really worth understanding Article 50 Lisbon Treaty as per Leave HQ once again: Article 50 And Withdrawal: An explainer. And why if there's one thing in the entire EU Referendum / Brexit argument we all should get right on all sides of the argument, it is Article 50:-

Here's why: REAL POWER:-



Saturday, 17 October 2015

Lakshmi: Goddess of Prosperity (2)

Lakshmi: Goddess of Wealth, Fortune and Prosperity

In Lakshmi: Goddess of Prosperity (1) we brought up the subject of "Prosperity" and it's central place in the argument: Our financial health in the UK and as part of the "ailing EU". But we also expanded the real meaning of prosperity above and around and underpinning it's more material and visible manifestations of Wealth or Fortune (Our "modern high priest's" favourite words: Confidence vs Uncertainty). We also looked at it's central role in "Good Governance", much maligned by Nigel Lawson's joining of the ERM and Gordon Brown's almost economic re-enactment of King John: We need a form of Magna Carta for our Money Supply: See Positive Money. Finally we considered our attitudes and their implications on the running and ruining of our economies:-

Daniel Hannan MEP: The devalued Prime Minister (Gordon Brown) of a devalued Government

It's no surprise to see and hear so much of our arguments on EU Membership are crystallized exactly in the same way, hence. They operate under especially in the Westminster-Media Bubble according to a Supply-Demand Basis of our Relationship with the EU. So long as the EU appeared to be a "force for good"  eg increasing peace as per winning the Nobel Peace prize and that was itself built from "prosperity":-

The 2012 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the European Union (EU) "for over six decades [having] contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe" by a unanimous decision of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

The decision highlighted the reconciliation of France and Germany, stating that "over a seventy-year period, Germany and France had fought three wars. Today war between Germany and France is unthinkable. This shows how, through well-aimed efforts and by building up mutual confidence, historical enemies can become close partners." The decision also highlighted the EU's contribution to the "introduction of democracy" in Greece, Spain and Portugal, the advancing of democracy and human rights in Turkey, the strengthening of democracy in Eastern Europe following the Revolutions of 1989 and overcoming of "the division between East and West" and ethnically based national conflicts, and finally the EU's contribution to the "process of reconciliation in the Balkans."
From our knowledge of The Great Deception, however we know the above is a "Disneyfication" (tvtropes warning!), packaging the EU as the force for Peace from which Prosperity can flourish. We've seen however with the "wilting of the flower of prosperity" that upholding or living up to this image has been more challenging for the EU. Such articles as Threat of Brexit is now very real or Opinion: British getting comfortable with idea of leaving the European Union are the kind of superficial understanding but indicative nonetheless of the picture we tried to create in Understanding The Mountains Of Madness:-
  • Greek Protectorate status
  • The Handling of Greece by the EU/Germany sentiment
  • The Failure of competence concerning Migration
  • The EURO Crisis: Creditor-Debtor usury and misery.
The image the above brings more closely represents The Four Horsemen of The Apocalypse:-

War, Famine, Pestilence, Death

  • Deaths of mass immigrants flooding into Europe (highest since WW2)
  • War with Russia over Ukraine geopolitics
  • Famine of austerity, food-banks and mass unemployment (EZ particularly)
  • Pestilence in our politics/politicians and our civilization's decay in thinking
The reactions to these clear observations are superficial: People en masse have been told the doctrine of the EU as above and now all they can see is the above negative outcomes. As we explored in Strange Trails, a conceptual understanding of our predicament (Dr. RAE North's "3-Legged Stool" of Problem-Solution-Outcome or our emotional adaptation of this in the above blog to: "Cage - Cage Door - Beyond The Cage" is what is needed, a full "intellectual architecture". Instead due to our conditioned way of thinking we revert to type and try to reuse old ways of thinking: Our Demand-Supply Relationship is adhered to:-

 Dominic Cummings vs Will Straw: The Prestige of fake prosperity arguments

Here we arrive in the middle of the message to convey in this blog. You wish to see if you can identify the pattern up to this point before preceding, as per Pattern Recognition? The effect of the above "reverting to type" is effectively:-

A New Demand-Supply Relationship between the UK and the EU

Understanding it in this way may help save people the waste of their valuable time, attention and energy, wading through the seas of lies and crossing the "mountains of madness" and in the future the mass reconditioning from the "great campaigns of confusion". We know this is the be-all-end-all of David Cameron's Reform-Renegotiation-Referendum mishmash Middle Way Fallacy as per Big Ben: The Four-Faced Liar and laying claim to arguments from authority: There is not a day that goes by when City AM invariably as conduit to the IMF voices yet another:-

And yet the IMF as part of the Troika are working such wonderful magic in the EU/EURO

Because the EU requires a New Treaty for the Monetary and Fiscal Union of the Eurozone members, this opens the door to the above New Deal/Reform as above and hence dire warning as above combined with "promises of riches" in our New Association Membership" Relationship thrashed out by endless arguments from the likes of the above 2 players and the sage wisdom of The Undiplomats: Right-wing populists and their foreign policies castigating anyone who is not "adult, sensible or reasonable" in accepting the new Demand-Supply Relationship paradigm being offered above:-
The Centre for European Reform (CER) (0 decoy) is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. We regard European integration as largely beneficial but recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. The CER aims to promote an open, outward-looking and effective European Union.
We've heard all this before, from British Influence (1st decoy) then from Open Europe (2nd decoy) and then Business For Britain (3rd decoy) (this site may be hacked)  and now Business For Elliott's Vote Leave - Take Control (4th decoy) until we come to the final decoy: David Cameron & EU (5th & Final Decoy) with all the preceding along with CER "conditioning" people towards this end New Deal:-

QUACK!! QUACK!! If they all quack like ducks...

The assertion is not unnecessarily long here. It's a complex web we have to loop back again to remind ourselves of in Argumentum Ad Infinitum building that case and hence building this case. The next stage will be to demonstrate that now Cameron's Reform/Middle-Way is an EU Norm with other non-EZ nations as per The Cameron Contagion: Britain spreads referendum fever across the EU

However to rephrase a proverb, we're already going down a road and it's to Damascus not Mecca, O Pilgrim! The "Economic Reform" framing of the debate and it started a while back:-

The IEA Coincidence: A "rational" Min-Max Economic Relationship
You can see the monumental efforts taken in order to frame the debate as Pro-EU (red) vs Anti-EU (violet) = Demand-Supply New Relationship (Green). The EU can't supply enough confidence to the UK and the UK's demands via it's own comparative confidence have risen. But as pointed out previously, this is an inferior position on prosperity; it's also an elitist argument that simply drives the people to "vote the right way" for those in charge and will bore people and hence effectively disenfranchise them, "politics as usual" leading to "business as usual" and we can guess where that will lead to again. A prime example of what prosperity "We The People" might like to reconceptualize:-

An insightful comment at EUReferendum.com

There's any number of examples of this real form of prosperity underpinning the raw material of peoples' everyday realities and experiences:-
I believe we have a couple of examples of real people in strong contexts where their views are simply the logic of the clear benefits that demanding a democratic CHOICE inputing their experiences and their views towards a positive solution that affects THEM can lead to. That in my opinion is the essence of Prosperity and it's aided by real democracy. As we explained in Our Government: "Ifs, Buts, Maybes" they're not part of the solution towards greater prosperity, they're prolonging the problems towards a more inclusive and prosperous outcome.

Effectively people have to start trusting their own decision-making for their own lives, more than our politicians, otherwise they'll end up wasting yet more of our valuable time, our valuable attention and our valuable energy: The real roots of our prosperity.