EU Politics: Groundhog Day (2nd February)

Groundhog Day: Six more weeks of Winter or is Spring on the way?

A very popular and very funny and brilliantly created film is the comedy film: Groundhog Day starring Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell. The premise of the film is that Bill Murray for reasons unknown must live the same day over and over again, which is Groundhog Day:-

"Groundhog Day (Canadian French: Jour de la Marmotte; Pennsylvania German: Grundsaudaag, Murmeltiertag) is a traditional holiday celebrated on February 2. According to folklore, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day, then the spring season will come early; if it is sunny, the groundhog will supposedly see its shadow and retreat back into its den, and winter weather will persist for six more weeks."

It would have been "perfect timing" to have written this yesterday to coincide with February 2nd, but I was busy with The Market Solution: A Growing Solution and the newspapers and interviews and commentary have mostly all landed today on the question of: "EU Reform" and "EU Renegotiation" so that David Cameron can hold the "EU Referendum" and "get it out of the way". That last phrase is I think very telling:-

• Holding a Referendum on Cameron's "spin" not on >40yrs x7 Major Treaties is somehow going to resolve the question from now until June 23rd? Looking at below, the failure to serve people more democratically is as much a part of the reason to leave the EU and to not trust the politicians latest promises and their dismissal of the final delivery of a referendum, now that it has been officially offered:-

 A Growing Political Debt: Stuffing >40yrs and x7 Major Treaties into Cameron's reform renegotiation for the referendum to "refer to the people"...

• Apparently it's "bad for the economy" so needs to be gotten rid of; but very little argument about the ability for a Referendum to capture the minds and imaginations of the electorate and turn out in large numbers to participate in Real (direct) Democracy on a singular and most important political subject.
• If people are bored of this referendum in the news, why is that? Is that the fault of the politicians and legacy news-media? The trivialization of a problem to be "gotten out of the way" given it is such a large subject.
• We know that a subject becomes boring when:-

 Main Priority for "Referral To The People": Education & Time To Think to make good informed and well-reasoned decisions on large subjects.

It's interesting to compare, but if the EURO had had more debate and more open discussion, then a better decision may have been made? So to consider the Referendum as "something to get out of the way" I think is very short-sighted.

Some summaries of this Groundhog Day EU Politics:-

The Cam Sham? Rule One Of Politics Is Never Trust A Tory

 The Boiling Frog provides the most penetrating consideration of the present situation in my opinion: Namely what are the implications for the visible denouement being played out. That is to say: Or is it? And that further is to arrive at a very concrete conclusion: If David Cameron must resort to shadows and spin on the subject of the EU Referendum via EU Reform via EU Renegotiation, then the subject itself is casting too long a shadow over the functional purpose of politics in our political institutions, I would conclude.

Is the sun rising or setting on Political Union underneath EU Treaties for the UK?

Does the EU cast too large a shadow over UK Politics, it's very presence casting too much into shadow and doubt and uncertainty?

What are we to make of David Cameron's slippery and shoddy reform promises?

• A Reformed EU? ~ Lost Leonardo
• EU Referendum: a list of empty promises ~ EUReferendum.com
• This is not the deal you’re looking for…..move along ~ The Brexit Door
• The death of the Conservative Party ~ Pete North

Pete North has the right of it: Their very behaviour, conduct and dysfunctional politics (their shadow) of our politicians is answer already and answer more than enough, itself.

I suspect The Boiling Frog above is correct. We'll get a relatively poor deal in February, then I think the EU will work it's magic on Migration (Dublin IV?) and with that final flourish Cameron may go for a Summer Referendum to "get it out of the way"; if he and the EU have concluded that a Treaty Political I.O.U Promise for Association Membership in late 2017 is not on the current agenda, for whatever reasons; and that without that his chances diminish irreversibly with time (and the spread of information and public understanding of the subject).

Only such dysfunctional politics could produce a June 23rd Referendum date given all the above and against:-

• EC Recommendations
• Regional Elections in the UK
• Summer holiday season and major sports events
• The lack of "fundamental change" once again promised by David Cameron and once again demonstrating he's a serial liar when it comes to the EU.

Again our politicians and media commentators fail to point out how and why this is dysfunctional to even talk up the prospects of an "early referendum". Alternatively it may simply be an exercise to "park" the EU Referendum jitters with complex papers and details until 2017? Either way all we're really doing is chasing after political shadows and making predictions based off such lack of substance!

EU Reform: Asking The Wrong Question

The jam is not for the wasps: They're considered "a nuisance" to trick, trap & remove

I'm not a fan of jam traps for wasps. I actually do think the best way is to be both careful with sweet foods when outside and to provide an alternative sweet source at some distance elsewhere for the wasps if they turn up. Live and let live. But the trick is clear: The jam of a trap is not for the wasps, they don't know this, as they're simple insects, but it effectively "keeps them out of the way".

Now, why's this important? The reason is that the "EU Reform" is a method to get people out of the way. Another example of this previously used was given by John Ashworth in his history of the Common Fisheries Policy series of articles at Campaign For An Independent Britain:

Cameron’s deceit over sovereignty

"To quote David Howarth again: it is of our own doing that we are in this club. (The EU) While we are in the club, we are bound by its rules. If we object to the rules, we can leave the club, but we cannot ourselves, by ourselves, change those rules—they can be changed only according to the rules of that club.

This causes a dilemma for David Cameron. He has no intention of leaving the EU"

The Common Fisheries Policy Part 8: Can we believe anything?

"One theme that runs through the UK’s 43-year involvement with the EEC/EU is that our politicians –  supported by the Civil Servants – have done everything in their power to keep the UK locked into the Common Fisheries Policy and indeed, to the EU as a whole. There have been constant assurances and promises everything was being done for UK fishermen and the future was guaranteed to be better. There were glowing expectations of what reform would bring.

Yet the opposite has happened. These empty promises merely kept the UK locked into a system which progressively strangled our industry and the fishing communities. Constantly a light of hope and change for the better appeared to be shining at the end of the long tunnel but as you got nearer, the light disappeared further away into another tunnel so as to continue the flow of implementing integration – as commanded in the Treaties – often by stealth. An EU Common policy has one destination, a Union fishing fleet in Union waters."

 It is hard to do better than read John Ashworth's series of articles on the CFP as an exemplar of our relationship with the Political Union EU. But if "EU Reform" is the wrong question, then what is the right question?

It depends.

It is possible to demonstrate the opposite to asking these questions per side of the argument and show that asking the wrong question is the epitome of the art of deception:-

 Sunday Politics: Open Europe are a "EU Reform" aka "Remain" organization asking WHY? Leave questions and leading to deception: "Regulations Bonfire Cut Red-Tape"

If you are on the side of "Remain", you have this question to ask:-

• WHY should we Remain a Member of the Political Union (EU)?

If you are on the side of "Leave", you have this question to ask:-

• HOW should we Leave the Political Union (EU)?

Referendum: "Plenty of Time To Finish This Game."

"There is plenty of time to finish this game. And to thrash the spaniards too." ~ attributed to Sir Francis Drake, 19th July, 1588

Quoting BritishBattles.com - The Spanish Armada:-

"On 19th July 1588 Captain Thomas Fleming in the Golden Hinde, glimpsed the Armada through the swirling morning mist off the Lizard and raced for Plymouth, Lord Howard’s home port. Fleming came up the channel into Plymouth with the afternoon tide to find Sir Francis Drake playing bowls with his officers on the Ho, high above the harbour. On hearing of Fleming’s sighting Drake insisted on continuing with the game."

I grew up in this part of the world and hence this story of Sir Francis Drake and The Spanish Armada, captured my imagination very deeply, as a child, and the quote above is ingrained into my memory as more stylish and sophisticated than anything I ever heard the fictional James Bond 007 come up with, irrespective whether or not it is an apocryphal anecdote: It makes sense and serves as an instructive example of "taking action when action can be taken":-

"It is possible that he knew that the tide of the River Tamar in Plymouth was against him, so that he could not get his ships out of Devonport - therefore, he knew that he could finish his game of bowls because his ships were dependent on the tide to move. If the tide was coming in, his ships had to stay tied up. If the tide was going out, then he had the freedom to move his ships into the Channel."

Now if the tide had somehow been the reverse he might have instead said:-

"Time to finish this game and to finish the Spaniards, too." 

The former shows his pragmatism and bravery. The latter would merely have shown his potential bravery. I think it's this that makes the quip so fine in meaning as well as providing unspoken interpretations of events eg the tide.

Here people are being asked for the first time in >40yrs: What does Remain in the EU mean? What does Leave the EU mean?

The above ballot paper form asks two questions. But like Sir Francis Drake's quote above, our answers very much depend on the context (is the tide coming in or going out?) when we give our answers.

The big problem I have with the Remain question being asked between now and 2017 is that it is not at the same time as Next Major New EU Treaty. Irrespective of Mr. Cameron's:-

Read David Cameron's speech outlining his four key EU reform demands

The four key points from David Cameron's EU letter

We have x3 Elements to look at:-

• David Cameron
• Reform
• EU

David Cameron:-

We looked previous at David Cameron's track-record on the EU, in MIND THE (credibility) GAP. He is not "consistent".

"REFORM":-

His x4 Reforms are:-

• Economic governance: Securing an explicit recognition that the euro is not the only currency of the European Union, to ensure countries outside the eurozone are not disadvantaged. The UK wants safeguards that it will not have to contribute to eurozone bailouts
• Competitiveness: Setting a target for the reduction of the "burden" of excessive regulation and extending the single market
• Immigration: Restricting access to in-work and out-of-work benefits to EU migrants. Specifically, ministers want to stop those coming to the UK from claiming certain benefits until they have been resident for four years
• Sovereignty: Allowing Britain to opt out from further political integration. Giving greater powers to national parliaments to block EU legislation

Has this clarified his position to vote Remain? Well again looking at the BBC's output, gives us an indication:-

 Reform doesn't sound very clear by the sounds of it: It sounds much more like political calculation than problem-resolving

In effect "Reform" still means this:-

The Hydra of Complexity: Voters will not know what they are voting for: "A leap in the dark" = "Reform"

 European Union (EU):-

 And what of the EU:-

• The Five Presidents' Report: Completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union
• A Fundamental Law of the European Union
• Andrew Duff - Protocol of Frankfurt: A New Treaty for the Eurozone

Here we see high magnitude, high orders of multiple intentionality and uncertainty concernign the EUROZONE required changes. This is effectively what the EU is transforming towards in the next major EU Treaty.

We also see confusion in the role of the Legacy News-Media, for example the BBC:-

David Keighley: Not the BBC news. Norway is very rich and very outside the EU

"But then the rot set in. According to website Leave HQ, what followed about the boiler-maker and Norway’s involvement with EU rules and the single market was ‘a pack of lies’, essentially because it most certainly does have influence, through its participation in the European Economic Area (EEA) and membership of EFTA (the European Free Trade Association)."

Dr. RAE North also looks at the BBC bias EU Referendum: BBC – the enemy without

Tommy R's blog Dismantling Britain Stronger in Europe's Leaflet showing that the Anti-Brexit case is being made by the "Remain" Campaign group not the case for Pro-EU (see above). This type of campaigning is increasing confusion and complexity.

Dr. RAE North notes not the first nor last time that the Tory's are fuelling confusion too EU Referendum: the Tory delusion; leaving the word. "eurosceptic" devoid of value and meaning. Vote Leave are also adding to confusion on Article 50 by Dominic Cummings: EU Referendum: a lack of thoughtful analysis along with EU Referendum: Hannan, the enemy within. And finally various think tanks are spreading more confusion: Civitas: EU Referendum: a report to myth the point; CER: If the UK votes to leave: The seven alternatives to EU membership ; Credit Suisse: Brexit: Breaking up is never easy, or cheap. Pete North points out the obvious: Stop problematising Brexit.

Effectively,

Is proliferating, and hence increasing the "Poltitical Plausibility Scope" into ever greater and wider implausible scenarios away from actual limits of political possibility that delimit the argument between "Remain" and "Leave":-

So, if we look at all the above, the hope for Real (direct) Democracy: Hiding in Plain Sight; feels as distant as it ever did when we joined the EEC back in 1972 before a Popular Referendum! However, we can remove an enormous source of the confusion:-

• Single Market (EEA) = Remove Economic Question
• Article 50 = Remove Legal Question
• Referendum = Resolve Political Question

Using A Macroscope on Cameron's Reform

What a relief! The Bruges Group have used a Macroscope

It's probably a given now, that our modern means of mass communication are a double-edged sword (as ever with technology?) and most depends on HOW they are used by people which seems to come up in Dr. RAE North's Strategy week: working for the other side. In the case of the Legacy News-Media, we've already seen how compromised they are in Understanding The Mountains Of Madness for understanding the EU Referendum and Brexit. How we organize the information becomes more and more necessary.

In reporting David Cameron's speech we see the total lack of context as per Jean Monnet's "Engrenage": Destination Unknown? , the total lack of Pattern Recognition and the total lack of Memory as per Eurosceptic "Amnesia" vs Brexiteer "Total Memory Recall" in the Legacy News-Media's output. And finally we cannot penetrate those "Mountains Of Madness" without the use of a Macroscope as per My Kingdom for a Macroscope!

Exceptionally, The Bruges Group in my opinion, after looking at as much coverage as I could to ensure I was being comprehensive in the assessment of the reporting, had produced a macroscope of David Cameron's Renegotation:-

EU Renegotiation Briefing: Associate Membership of the EU and David Cameron’s Reform Proposals

The really good thing about the above is that it saves such a complete waste of time and energy sifting through so many muddled opinions in the Legacy News-Media where none of the public are any the wiser for the thousand and one diverse and diffuse opinions; instead as per Diffusion with a full and comprehensive view we can see the overall pattern and direction of change from seemingly the smallest of initial changes:-

 Much clearer watching the full diffusion procession compared to the numberless individual particles under a microscope

We know from the types of Referendums that there are Top-Down and Bottom-Up as per How about a nice game of chess? and this is indeed the Game Of Strategy being played on the people by the politicians: They want control and power to be controlled. Democracy is not the subtance but the merely the vehicle for their plans:-

It is probably a fair argument to make that the 1975 Referendum could be termed a "Top-Down" Referendum as opposed to a "Bottom-Up" Referendum from the people themselves. This categorization of the characteristics of a given referendum is well made: A Tale of Two Referendums: Elite Manipulation or Civic Engagement?

Verner Patzelt, founding professor of the Institute of Political Science at the Technical University of Dresden: "Mehr Demokratie !"

A useful summary beyond the technical details of regulation and running back towards the principles: as per Dr. RAE North, EU politics: Germany in stasis :-

"The new movement, "Direct Democracy for Europe", Patzelt speaks about favourably. It certainly has "a chance", he says, a man who is demonstrably no great fan of representative democracy.

Those who want more democracy must resort to other means - referendums initiated by citizens, regardless of elections. The problem with representative democracy is that, after the vote, the citizen has no voice. "The most important instrument of political influence between elections", he says, "is the referendum".

However, not all referendums have the same value. If they are top down, they are a tool in the hands of professional politicians. The must work from the bottom up, with citizens deciding on the topics. He who fails to make this distinction will miss the opportunity of making a truly democratic system of government, Patzelt says."

It may seem like sensible controlled and managed politics, but this Breadcrumbing away from the Central Point of the argument is in my opinion bad process of democracy itself. If our Prime Ministers right at the top of political power is resorting to arguments that based on repeated lying as per MIND THE (credibility) GAP then he is setting the standard and hence quality of our national arguments with which democracy itself scales up. And it will scale up poorly as a consequence, depriving people of learning and hence real Power To The People; counterfeit arguments and deception replace "the real thing" ie democracy itself. People develop a "sweet tooth" for more Turkish Delight! Turkish Delight! and politics to most people simply looks too complex and too boring as reported in the Legacy News-Media, like looking at Brownian Motion of thousands of individual randomly colliding opinions/particles:-

Unorganized Information: Brownian Motion of thousands of smoke particles

I think the "eurosceptic" arguments have not progressed in quality for most of the 43 years of our EU Membership. In the last few years some small progress has been made. But instead of the above picture enough to put off 99% of all people, there's emerging a great chance for the organization of information and the accessibility of understanding it by more and more people (people power):-

Mr Cameron still can't beat our offer

LeaveHQ has great potential to transform, transcribe and translate political information into a language people can understand

A Clash Of Kings

"The dog does not bother you, does she? She's a friendly dog and I'm sure she will behave herself."

I've shown the above picture to various people concerning President Putin's meeting with Germany's Chancellor Merkel and mostly everyone finds it a very amusing anecdote and seems to be based more or less in recorded fact, for example on wikipedia the dog, Koni's entry mentions such a meeting. Either way, it's a great anecdote of "A Clash Of Kings", and the attempt to gain some small advantage of perception/image that symbolizes the greater "(A) Game Of Thrones" being played; and the anecdote of the "guest" who has some form of fearful aversion or allergy to pets which ineluctably are drawn to such people with their innocent friendliness, and they either rub their fur coats against such a person (if they're allergic) or press their noses into the groin region or in the case of Merkel are oblivious to the fearful aversion they evoke. But Koni is not "sniffing around" by accident in the diplomatic room... .

In George R.R. Martin's Clash Of Kings, there's an especially piquant scene involving "The Seven Kingdom's" ruling Privy or Small Council in which they concoct a form of propaganda against one of their enemies:-

EU Reform: A Clash Of Kings? "The best lies contain within them nuggets of truth."

"And the best lies contain within them nuggets of truth, enough to give a listener pause... in my experience, the more bizarre and shocking a tale, the more apt it is to be repeated." ~ Lord Petyr Baelish "Littlefinger", A Clash Of Kings, p.209-210.

And this is as per "A Clash Of Kings" a particularly potent form of weapon: To fabricate false arguments against your opponents, so that they end up fighting against an invisible hand and thereby fail to land a real blow on "the perpetrator" themselves and their own "nexus of power": We already looked at the importance of memory in our starting premises in Eurosceptic "Amnesia" vs Brexiteer "Total Memory Recall" and the results of our Legacy News-Media's "amnesia" on the EU Referendum reporting in Understanding The Mountains of Madness and compared this to establishing the historic major pattern of this debate on the EU in Pattern Recognition and the fallacies of our Political Class leading to defective decision-making in  Argumentum Ad Infinitum . All these components can be brought to bear on the UK Prime Minister David Cameron's "EU Reform "euroscepticism" as per Politicians: No Taste, No Style, So Derivative! and his Fallacy of The Middle Way Argument crunching the "political arithmetic" based off public sentiment swings from polling data as opposed to changing the knowledge of the public in the lead-up to the EU Referendum and thereby depriving them of an opportunity to experience enhanced real "direct" democracy, as per Learning & Playing The Rules Of The Game:-

Our modern day "Oracle": Google Trends: "EU Reform" 2005-2015

This shows how effective all the above propaganda has been in stringing along the public a false story on the EU and dragging it on for in the above picture of "news trending" via google data, over a decade. If we simply use the above time-line and apparently we're going to hear about Cameron's Reform plans "soon", it is rational to tell David Cameron that we do not trust him that it is time for him to shut-up and stop lying to us. We just have to look at the above and notice how long we have been lied to without a vote either.

Fortunately this has been well known at EUReferendum.com for sometime, as per most recently Dr. RAE North writes: EU Referendum: there are no negotiations:-

"This cannot be repeated enough times: there are no negotiations. Mr Cameron is perpetrating a charade, an outrageous pretence, going through the motions in order to convince a gullible media and an unknowing electorate that he is striving to deliver a new relationship with the EU."

• Second Class or Slow Lane?
• Are You One Of Cameron’s Useful Idiots? 
• Dominic Cummings' plan: Vote to Leave, Get Remain in a 'Reformed EU' 
• Time waits for no man – so they say

Interestingly the Legacy Media has finally caught up in Peter Oborne's article in the Daily Mail:

"Indeed, Osborne has now helped to arrange for Mandelson — who was twice forced to resign from Labour governments — to become the president of the Great Britain China Centre. This is a prestigious post, which will see him promoting mutual trust and understanding between the UK and China.

Mandelson and Osborne want the referendum to be held at the last possible moment.
 
Britain will not be part of this group and will be given a so-called ‘escape clause’

It means that David Cameron will be armed with powerful weapons to argue for Britain’s continued membership of the EU, even if he fails to win the concessions for Britain that he has said he aims to achieve.

He will be able to argue, very plausibly, that EU membership gives the UK the best of both worlds: that is, we remain part of the wider European trading area, while escaping the onerous burdens of membership of a new European superstate.

This riddle from A Game Of Thrones sums up the public's predicament:-

Where does power reside?

“In a room sit three great men, a king, a priest, and a rich man with his gold. Between them stands a sellsword, a little man of common birth and no great mind. Each of the great ones bids him slay the other two. ‘Do it,’ says the king, ‘for I am your lawful ruler.’ ‘Do it,’ says the priest, ‘for I command you in the names of the gods.’ ‘Do it,’ says the rich man, ‘and all this gold shall be yours.’

"So tell me – who lives and who dies?”