Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Wednesday, 18 November 2015

A Science of Simplicity

Brexit = Simplicity (LHS) vs Complexity (RHS) both built above "Pragmatic Legitimacy"

In the very first blog, How do you become a "eurosceptic" Brexiteer? it was noted that the foundation to all our communications and hence political decision making systems; "Representative Democracy": which like The Laughing Cavalier (can be seen at The Wallace Collection) seems neither representative nor Democratic, as per The Harrogate Agenda:-

 Much like representative democracy: The Laughing Cavalier is neither "laughing" nor a "Cavalier"!

is built on Trust. A very simple foundation. But it's presence as per Jared Diamond's The World Until Yesterday - At The Airport - An Airport Scene (Papua New Guinea) p.4
"Still another distinction of the 2006 crowd compared to the 1931 crowds was a feature that we take for granted in the modern world: Most of the people crammed into that airport hall were strangers who had never seen each other before, but there was no fighting going on among them. That would have been unimaginable in 1931, when encounters with strangers were rare, dangerous, and likely to turn violent. Yes, there were those two policemen in the airport hall, supposedly to maintain order, but in fact the crowd maintained order by itself, merely because the passengers knew that none of those other strangers was about to attack them, and that they lived in a society with more policemen and soldiers on call in case a quarrel should get out of hand." 
This passage feels particularly pertinent to consider in light of the Paris terrorist attacks on innocent crowds of people, and we easily forget that the simple, scalable act of individuals all deciding to "Trust" one another allows such large gatherings of groups of people, as per Squaddie TV. Trust is one of the Moral Foundations of legitimacy as discussed in Legitimacy & Listening for our political system to work effectively and ensure the feedback loop of our decision-making is providing both negative and positive feedback of decisions and policies.

What has happened with the loss of Trust is the increase in Apathy of electorates as per Power To The People and the increase in the manipulation of Anxiety of governments on their people because of the widening of the MIND THE (Credibility) GAP! between people, parties and politicians, the Political Class that is the displacement of Trust in politics. Dylan Moran manages to capture this apathy and loss of trust:-

The ineffable Dylan Moran: More 'home truths' than ALL our 650 MP's can manage

What we've seen with the above terrorist attacks is the realization that our politicians cannot be trusted and that is related to their political decisions on multiple policies across Foreign Policy, Migration Policy (Irregular Economic migrants and asylum of refugees) and of course the lack of democracy above all in these processes as mentioned. It's why Migration Immigration is so HIGHLY VISIBLE a policy invested with the increased public political will and demand for change: The loss of that simple assumption in our everyday lives: Trust. Dr. RAE North addresses this topic in detail here in the context of Brexit: Strategy Ten: Immigration.

Looking now at the top diagram, however we must define Brexit as a simple choice based on Trust, not on results nor on promises of results, but on Trust of past actions and past words and re-establishing Credibility into Politics BEFORE EVERYTHING that follows

What we can rely on however is those with vested interests: The Politicians, The Lawyers, The Bankers, to assert their own priorities and their own complexities above the people and we've seen the results of this in Lakshmi: Goddess of Prosperity (1). This is the path towards complexity and towards manipulation and a loss of trust in democracy and hence Black Swans.

 The Politicians increase complexity and Black Swans atst as selling FUD to voters!

This noted in Brexit For Beginners: The Hydra Of Complexity. However using a Macroscope as per My Kingdom For A Macroscope! and The EU Onion and The Brexit Number, we can make a hugely significant distinction as per Pub Signs:-
  • Brexit = Present Simple x1 Day out of 14,625 days singular event
  • FLEXCIT = Present Continous Many Years Process triggered by Brexit
  • British Model EU rebranding = Continued complexity and fragility in the EU with sustained mistrust as per Breadcrumbing.
 So how do we simplify the Brexit choice down to a single number/day and a single word to vote for for people, and one that all the voters can above all TRUST?:-

FLEXCIT Process: Defining Brexit as simply as possible by burning away "hydra heads"

Here's a visualization of the structural organization of FLEXCIT. The objective as needs repeating is Simplification, simplification, simplification of Brexit as the binary option on the Referendum Day to choose that people can Trust (because behind it is a Plan that is superior to Cameron's received complexity and fudge and lies and manipulation from the EU: The EU is susceptible to Black Swans because it's so complex politically it is fragile and the only way it can sustain itself is via Deception using all the political power it has centralized to do so for over 60yrs.

Simplicity is what we're interested in and here's why for two reasons. First:-
  • Remove Segments
  • Reduce Segments
  • = More Simple!!
This means Brexit is more understandable for more people and hence they can TRUST this choice more; because it's an event built into a fuller process FLEXCIT itself. It is made for the people, it is including the people, it is educating the people unlike the politicians who attempt to deceive the people for so many decades over the EU.

The blue headings effectively point out a very simple truth connecting the 4 starting conditions with the eventual future dividends (all in green):-

 Utilizing the smallest of deviations that accumulate into very large end changes over time

The "Starting Conditions" must be accounted for:-
  1. Stuffing 45 Years + x7 Major Treaties into x1 Referendum Day = Our Politicians failures against democracy
  2. The Membership of the EU has accumulated from 1972 huge complexity; only small changes via the the correct legal route of Article 50 are valid and also viable to the UK's secure withdrawal. 
Looking after these may lead to "Future Dividends" that are not immediate so can be removed (for the time-being). Hence all promises of global trade and real democracy by our politicians should be removed from the debate.

That leaves the Yellow Titles. The largest segment are policies. Hence removing this from debate is essential to slaying that Hydra of complexity. Simply on withdrawing repatriating the entire EU acquis to eventually be modified means there's very little to no immediate change: Hence all fears and criticisms are removed

It also means for "eurosceptics" to start Learning & Playing The Rules Of The Game and keeping your eyes on the ball as per Off The Ball Movement. If you get bogged down in the above details you add complexity and that plays to the status quo effect, the real enemy of the Referendum, The Top-Down Referendum tool of the professional poltiicians as per How about a nice game of Chess? and again we looked at how complexity is the friend of the trickster in The Knight 'N Knave and the enemy potentially to political progress away from stagnation and control by those in power.

The next biggest is "Withdrawal Options": Without unity and without unity of understanding, why should people/voters trust us? They will trust prestige, and authority as we already covered Legitimacy & Listening, the Dominance-Submission Relationship exerting it's negative effects. We know that if Brexit is defined as simply as possible then it is the nearest layer out of the EU in the EU Onion and the option that is quickest and easiest to reach The Brexit Number which is The Norway Option as per Brexit For Beginners:-

We know why because it is not only simplest even if not optimal, it also satisfies our starting positions and hence is also the most honest position to take and that is the task we're really talking about: Trust!

If this is accepted, then the next largest slug in the pie is The Single Market and that is covered via the Norway Option through EEA access via EFTA membership. This does mean however that such memes as:-
  • Cost-Saving
  • Regulation
  • Control of Borders
Must be removed also from the argument of Brexit. Remember simplifying is GOOD FOR THE PEOPLE! It also means both sides of the argument must be simplified including our side! Goodbye outdated memes, hello simplicity.

I just say an interesting comment on Immigration, it's own slug in the pie and therefore of course important but it is the smaller of the above! if you choose any guide that as per simplicity is an abstract rule of thumb to use to reassure about this decision:- Comment is found here: Strategy Ten: Immigration

Those who want more immigration control will fall into Cameron's complexity trap...

What needs to be understood by "eurosceptics" who I hope after reading this will convert into "Brexiteers" is the above works like this in visual form:-

How Cameron can quickly reassert credibility and authority on Immigration in the EU

You can go over the vast stats on this, for example covered in OMG !!! Parakeet Invasion which references both Dr. RAE North and also Migration Watch. Two of the sources I've found most useful. The above graph shows how politically all Cameron has to do is as per ScepticSid above implement what he can do already and which the EU will ensure also, and the electorate perception will shift on the immigration issue. The proportion is not proportional to the perception, but for most middle-swing-voters that's the type of reassurance they'll vote for.

So UKIP'ers, LEAVE.EU look at the above and reconsider the ranking of immigration I would suggest in terms of SIMPLICITY to achieve your goals.
If you purport to be "The Peoples' Campaign" you will best serve the people through simplicity else you'll fall into Cameron's complexity trap as well as not convince swing voters and again failing the Pragmatic Legitimacy test

To finish, if we go to the top diagram about TRUST. Having FLEXCIT or Cameron's British Model PROCESSES behind each option is the key to each side of the Referendum question (hence Strategy Ten: the need for an exit plan); which itself is an event. Brexit itself must be defined as an point-in-time-event crossing that Supranational line into Intergovernmental context: It needs to be as simply as who do you trust? The people if they are given a chance or the politicians who we have recorded their lies and their lack of legitimacy and hence illusion of authority. We've also previously visited why conceptually both LEAVE.EU and Vote Leave are failing the people on the side of Leave as much as our own government fails the Remain side of people in the question via complexity as per The EU Onion and The Brexit Number.

The top diagram proves why this organization is intellectually bankrupt for not having a brexit plan; it underpins TRUST by removing Pragmatic Legitimacy as a risk!

For that simplification, we must look at how FLEXCIT as a process reduces, removes and hence simplified can be scaled up democratically to more people and empowers them more - the total opposite of a few people behind closed doors deciding the future decades of millions of people with that terrible weight of responsibility and the corrupting influence of power centralized.

Which would you choose?