The Uncertainty Precept: Start with the right question(s).
Quoting Wikipedia once again on the "Uncertainty Principle" (must donate!):-
In quantum mechanics, the uncertainty principle, also known as Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, is any of a variety of mathematical inequalities asserting a fundamental limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle, known as complementary variables, such as position x and momentum p, can be known simultaneously.So "uncertainty" is in-built it seems into the very nature of the realistic universe! Or to adapt it for a more "relate-able" misuse:-
And this is indeed a hilarious transposition of "uncertainty" when we also find the same "joke"as noted by Mr. Brexit:-
CEP: "You Just Made That Up."
Interestingly enough we can actually take what Dilbert says above and apply it to the CEP "analysis" above:
"If you understand a project you won't know it's cost, and vica versa." ~ Dilbert
Effectively to para-phrase: "because we don't understand the project (Brexit)" we therefore DO understand it's costs: They're "ginormous"!! The Project Uncertainty Principle, in action.
This is attributed to "uncertainty". So how do we reduce/remove uncertainty?
What does "uncertainty" look like = Bad Decision-Making ; What is at the root of uncertainty = Not asking the right questions aka 1. DEFINE THE PROBLEM
Once we use such a framework it should be noted, CEP above launches into Stage 3. [See Above: "What are the UK's options outside the European Union?"] suggesting there is uncertainty over 3 million jobs and The Single Market and the EU are all blurred into one amorphous and undefined entity to which all manner of uncertainty properties can be attributed.
But the dual fallacies are both launching into Stage 4. AND not starting at Stage 1.
I think this simple process explains probably 95% of all the work we see published by various think tanks on the EU Referendum and on Brexit as per Dr. RAE North at EUReferendum.com. It's staggered that our National Decision-Making apparatus and institutions is so primitive in it's observable out-put.
Progress? Nope. Uncertainty? Yup.
The enormous disregard for The History of the European Union as described and defined in The Great Deception has been a key contributor to failure of progression of the argument.
If anyone is interested in Brexit, they must know what the defined problem is as per Lost Leonardo: For The Avoidance of Doubt. But this also allows an insight into the workings of the "eurosceptic aristocracy" who are taking over the Leave Campaign forming their own "Policy Ponzi" scheme as per Leave HQ: What's Wrong With the WTO Option?. Why? Why do they do this? What we see by the process of obscuring the definition of the problem ie ignoring The Great Deception is that it means the "Consideration Set" is kept broad and undefined. Here is the space with which the politicians can peddle their "Policy Ponzis" as per The Brexit Bullshit Sandwich to a bewildered public. By going through the entire cycle of Decision-Making we can connect the original problem itself to a form that is "fitted" to democratic decision-making on a mass scale for voters to be an executive part of the full decision-making cycle. But it relies on HIGH QUALITY!
It's funny you don't need the likes of LSE or CER who are paid so much by such powerful entities with such jealously guarded vested interests, a simple tabulation tells the story as effectively and more clearly. And as pointed out they deliberately go about:-
Finding The Right Answer(s) to The Wrong Questions.
There seems to be a lot of money and prestige sloshing around in those think tanks as per The Political Food Web of Prestige and possibly far too much geopolitical power projection invested in the EU to allow us plebs to decision on the right question: EU Reform: Asking The Wrong Question.
Is economics in the core defined problem? No. So remove it.
We can see that CER and Open Europe are determined to also ask the wrong questions and get the right questions on economic projections. This is why FLEXCIT removes this area from the original question and from the practical implementation of Brexit too. No other Brexit plan do we see this simple high quality thinking.
And this itself can be used to reinforce our Problem Definition:-
Just look at all these useless reports that fail to Define The Problem and Ask The Right Questions.
Our Membership of the Supranational EU is itself a deterioration of democratic decision-making processes as a nation!!
"If it sounds too good to be true": Elliott, Lea, Campbell-Bannerman, Redwood, Cash, Hannan, Carswell, Cummings,
Why don't the above avowed "Leave Campaigners" seek to solve this problem via higher quality decision-making and hence avoid uncertainty? It's their trade as "eurosceptic aristocrats" in SW1 as part of the political class: Farage on that front is certainly right!
It's up to voters to force such people either out of the way as part of the problem preventing problem definition or make them part of the solution:-
Importance of sovereignty
"Many voters had sovereignty at the top of their list for their reasons to say ‘no’, both in 1972 and 1994.I guess the Norwegians had their heads screwed on tightly both:-
Norway gained independence from 90 years of Swedish rule in 1905, and was prior to that a part of the Danish Kingdom for more than four centuries. Skinner writes that this history of foreign rule has made Norwegians reluctant to give up independence to a supranational union such as the EU.
“For many Norwegians, the distance to Oslo is long,” says the researcher. “But the distance to Brussels is even longer.”
She says Norwegians are content with their political system, characterised by a short socioeconomic distance between the government and the governed, and are put off by the decision-making process in the EU.
Marianne Sundlisæter Skinner.
This attitude was found both in the seventies and nineties."
- Defining the Problem.
- Defining the Challenge: Not trusting or being led by THEIR lying politicians who did want to join!
Today, in the 10's the problem is still Supranationalism but the challenge is Intergovernmentalism. The problem with Supranationalism?
Bad Decision-Making = ... (you guessed it!).