Economic Modelling gives you...
The above is a clip from the blaxploitation action comedy or comedy-spoof Black Dynamite, by watching it you see a sketch of "making it up as you go along" riffing on detective stories. Economic Modelling is perhaps a kind of detective exercise on the economy. Once the "chain of reasoning" gets going into rapid gear, it's perhaps hard to follow and hence become bogged down in the complex details; A loaded question or complex question fallacy:-
"Such questions may be used as a rhetorical tool: the question attempts to limit direct replies to be those that serve the questioner's agenda."The Brexit Door blogs on this subject in The CBI/PWC ‘Cost of Brexit’ report,
"This morning all the talk has been about the report from the CBI into the implications for the UK economy on leaving the EU. I had rather hoped it would start to enliven real debate over the issues, but I’m afraid it won’t."
"It’s economic analysis is probably beyond question, I certainly won’t challenge its modelling. That is not where it’s problem lies. It’s real problem is that it simply analyses a situation which is never likely to exist. A straw man is built, and effectively knocked down (at great expense I would expect, knowing PWC’s eye watering hourly rates), simply to create a convenient story for the government and it’s Remain camp allies, notably the BBC who went big with it this morning I’m told."
"The CBI is openly Pro EU, so they make no pretence to impartiality here."
Economic FUD amplified via "Große Lüge" - A Loaded Big Lie techniqueGroße Lüge (Big Lie):-
A big lie (German: große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, about the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously."We know from Decrypting: What is Babel-17? that Economics is a useful language of deception to use because as per 1997:-
- "The words used in the argument are a foreign language."
- "Strong passions"
- "Most of us aren't well informed"
"CBI Director-General, Carolyn Fairbairn, has warned that leaving the EU would cause a serious shock to the UK economy, with a potential cost to UK GDP of £100 billion and 950,000 jobs by 2020 and negative echoes that could last many years after that."
"Under both PwC scenarios, UK living standards, GDP and employment are significantly reduced compared with staying. The analysis indicates a cost to the British economy of leaving of as much as £100 billion – the equivalent of around 5% of GDP - by 2020. Even in a scenario where a Free Trade Agreement with the EU is secured rapidly, the analysis indicates GDP could be 3% lower by 2020. GDP per household in 2020 could be between £2100 and £3700 lower, and the UK’s unemployment rate between 2 and 3 percentage points higher, than if the UK had remained in the EU. GDP growth in the years 2017-2020 could be seriously reduced – and possibly be as low as zero in 2017 or 2018."
The CBI and "magic money"
The Brexit Door notices an interesting outcome however:-
"So why is the remain campaign and its supporters avoiding analysis on the Market Solution?"The numbers in the CBI/PWC Report merely grow and grow as per the growing chains of reasoning from the loaded question in accordance with their uncertainty value:-
"Well it’s hard to escape the conclusion that they are rather concerned that it cannot be easily rebutted because it is well researched and thought through. To draw attention to it would do more harm to their cause than good – so they, and the government, pretend simply that it doesn’t exist."
CBI/PWC focuses on Left-Hand-Side and ignores the Right-Hand-Side, like so many of the Leave Campaign, The Establishment and the Legacy News-Media
Instead what we have is Misdirection (magic) Money:-
Misdirection is a form of deception in which the attention of an audience is focused on one thing in order to distract its attention from another.
Managing the audience's attention is the aim of all theater, it is the foremost requirement of theatrical magic. Whether the magic is of a "pocket trick" variety, or, a large stage production in Las Vegas, misdirection is the central secret of all Magic.
The Leave Campaign (Vote Leave) are proving to be David Cameron's Rabbit, the Dodgy Deal was the Hat.
The basis of the misdirection is the Polls and confessions of the Leave Voters themselves, apparently UKIP, Leave.EU and GO want:-
- "Control Our Borders" (empty meme) removal of Freedom of Movement
- Saving Loads of Money from Economic Membership
- A Free Trade Agreement or Something Like the WTO
- Bonfire of Redtape!
- FTA like Canada has
- EU will still buy our cars no matter what!
Imbalanced & Weak Arguments: Leave Campaign's own weight used against itself: "Control Our Borders": No! To Freedom of Movement! or "We Can Do So Much Better Than Norway or Switzerland" as "They Buy More Cars Than We Do!"
The Leave Campaign plays right into the hands of The Great Deception; it's not surprising it's been going since the early 1960's concerning the UK, at least. This leaves the intended picture of Brexit instead of The Market Solution:-
Edit 22/03/2016: City A.M. 21/03/2016:-
Major added those in favour of a Brexit were wrong to insist Britain could leave the EU and then rengotiate trade deals to its advantage.If people referred to the arguments more, they would realize that Major describing the kind of Judo throw above and pointing out such arguments are "imbalances" that are so ripe for taking advantage of. The Deception is the focus on these bogus Brexit propositions aka "Big Bang" Brexit categories (LHS above, all of them). However the misdirection is NEVER to mention The Leave Alliance nor The Market Solution staged iterative withdrawal and secondly that these are themselves stages towards conditions more closely aligned to FTA or otherwise removing "EU Centric Political Integration" from "European Genuine Single Market" evolution.
"Their argument is that the EU needs the UK market more than we need theirs. This is at best disingenuous, more bluntly it is fantasy," he said.
If any Leave or undecided voters read this, remember the use of the opponents' arguments as Judo atst as Misdirection and the amplitude of FUD as Big Lie technique. The solution? Learn and find the arguments that: Discrīmen: Arguments have their own reasons.
Pro-EU Deception, The Intended Picture: Lie Big, Lie Frequently and use your opponent's arguments against themselves:-
Big Lie: Brexit will cost you dearly, 100m, 1m jobs and 5% GDP to be "on top authority".