Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Wednesday, 9 March 2016

The Leave Alliance: A Choice With A Plan

Radar of Air Traffic Control over the UK: Planes, Plots and a PLANNED routes between origin and destination

This illustration above shows part of the United Kingdom and some of France, Belgium and Holland above which:-
  • Planes IDs
  • Planes at present positions at given times
  • Planes plotted routes (lines)
What's abundantly clear is that all these planes must have stringently planned routes and schedules predicted in advance. Simulations of the above should correspond with live feedback data and hence relational positions of all planes to each other should be controlled, safe and secure and hence properly managed.

Let's say we're taking a plane, we have 3 pieces of coordinate information:-
  1. Origin: London (point)
  2. Route: Managed and safe and scheduled and efficient (line)
  3. Destination: Brussels (point)
 This interested me because I was browsing a conversation over at in the comments section between Dr. RAE North and some commentators:-

Rommel was not about to sit down to a nice cup of tea with Montgomery and explain his strategy.

So what has the government actually provided help people know the UK/Britain's coordinates in the upcoming Referendum and our decision on Brexit or European Union Membership to political integration?

Remember the 3 Criteria both coordination and hence future planning decisions to be taken:-
  • Origin
  • Route
  • Destination

 1. Origin (Present Status)

The Government decided to review this in one of their reports via the following criteria: Review of the Balance of Competences between the United Kingdom and the European Union:-

 Links to the outcomes of the above report: Review of the balance of competences.

2. Route (How the UK Withdraws)

Again the government has provided something here: The process for withdrawing from the European Union.
  1. Article 50
  2. Single Market (EU/EEA)
  3. Huge Scale of Renegotiation
  4. Start of a process (not end of an event)
  5. Mishandled has serious impacts across the board: EU referendum: impact of an EU exit in key UK policy areas
  6. Risk Assessment is extraordinarily high which warrants "EU Reform" (?) alternative ROUTE

 Uncharted: Too many moving parts - Risk too high, wrong result mutually assured self-destruction for both the UK and EU! Wrong route = Mid-air collision.
"2.3 But the process is unprecedented. No country has ever used Article 50 – it is untested. There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work. It would be a complex negotiation requiring the involvement of all 27 remaining EU Member States and the European Commission."

3. x2 Destination ("Special Status" not EU Reform) vs Alternative Models

Again the UK government has provided somthing here: Alternatives to membership: possible models for the United Kingdom outside the European Union.

EU Alternative Final Destinations: EEA, Bi-Laterals, Customs Union, FTA

 Just to clear up some definitions/distinctions in the above:-

There's 3 categorical choices:-

1. Full participation in the Single Market as a MEMBER OF the Market; covers trade across the board.
2. FTA to the Single Market; is limited to specifics of the agreement.
3. Else WTO MFN status.

Effectively 1. is fully comprehensive to the point that movement of goods, services, capital and labour make it so. This is equivalent to what is called our present "Special Status" or "Best of Both Worlds".

The difference with the EEA to other such examples is the loss of sovereign controls over migration. But given The RULES of the EU are in-built this way because it's a Supranational organization that cannot change upon Brexit. So Freedom of Movement FOM is effectively a determinant of Single Market access as a full member with full participation. Given the UK is so highly integrated into the Single Market for it's economy (~35%) then the conditions of Brexit Article 50 preclude FTA's in time, so you have to opt for continuance of the economy to trade with the EU and with the current EU Trade deals elsewhere too. This is all factually grounded:-

* 35%
* 2 Years
* >200 Trade Agreements to which the UK/EU are party to

There is, " no ifs, buts" or "whataboutisms". It's Single Market or mid-air collision.

Whatever the true merits of the Government's report as considered by The Brexit Door it's already leaps and bounds ahead of the Leave Campaigns Vote Leave, Leave.EU and GO.

David Cameron has not achieved "EU Reform" he's achieved what he's calling a real alternative: The best of both worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status in a reformed European Union.

A Clearer Picture:-

To note the UK government is not going to point out which Brexit routes are possible even if they do conveniently point out which routes are impossible and which destination are not appropriate.

The Government's contribution (summary:-

  1. Origin: Review of the balance of competences
  2. Route:  The process for withdrawing from the European Union
  3. Destination: Alternatives to membership: possible models for the United Kingdom outside the European Union  or The best of both worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status in a reformed European Union
But I think the trick pulled here is three-fold:-
  • Present Brexit at impossible Route and negative Destination
  • The one possible route (The Norway Option) is presented as a negative Destination.
  • Use all the vested powers of the state to deceive that the "New Deal" is a new Destination and not the same old Origin!
The Leave campaign must therefore step in here and point out:-
  1. A Possible Route
  2. A Positive Destination
  3. Taking this journey is comparable and comparatively better than the EU/EEA ; EZ/EEA Negative Origin.

Categorically: The route and/or destination both must be possible and positive - which only leaves The Norway Option. The government has covered over the fact it's possible by pretending it's not positive (end-destination)

If we look at the above "map representation" of Brexit. I think it manages to connect the gap between the government providing what alternatives are like with the information that it is possible and it is positive though there is inherent risk which can be gauged. You'll notice the most salient feature is "EEA" which is:-

  • Off-The-Shelf Option: The destination is positive and working
  • Full Single Market Access via repatriation to make the journey
  • It's going in the same direction as UK's historic opt-outs from Political Union! Not the wrong direction as evidenced by this record.
  • We know the EU/EEA or EZ/EEA route is possible. But the biggest question is is it the right destination?

Just like a plane journey that is meticulously scheduled and planned: Longer journeys often involve multiple connections

If we realize that The Norway Option (White Wednesday) or indeed The 1st Stage of the Market Solution comprising fall-backs, is a Layover or "Connection Point" to a future subsequent leg of the full journey/route, it suddenly starts to make a lot more sense not to focus on the Journey but the Destination!
  • Political Union
  • The Market Solution
I personally believe most people never did buy "an air ticket" to Political Union; see Dr. RAE North's EU Referendum: the genesis of obsolescence. The government sold us a trade relationship and sent us onto the wrong plane. This won't be admitted explicitly so we end up with this game of charades where they attempt to confuse the fact people would like to buy "an air ticket" to The Full Market Solution if they believed the route was safe, secure and possible.

I hope the above mock-up of travel maps helps simplify from the confusion of both the government and the leave campaigns who failed to help people understand the actual options.
Your boarding pass to Brexit

The Route is indeed possible, but it's the destination that counts.