Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Thursday, 7 April 2016

FLEXCIT: Talking The Talk 1

In considering the barriers to effective communication, Communication: The Reaction Barrier; here however I'm attempting to describe some concepts and explain some definitions to improve the use of language concerning this EU Referendum and Brexit choice with respect to the language and ideas used in FLEXCIT: The Market Solution:-

Flexcit, p.2 Summary:-

"The UK secession from the EU, following an "out" vote in a referendum and an Article 50 notification, will have significant geopolitical and economic consequences."
  • Scale of Brexit: is a political order of magnitude approximate to the falling of the Berlin Wall, is mentioned further in. This key point is not to be under-estimated in understanding how enormous Brexit is and therefore how carefully and skillfully it must and needs to be handled. To distinguish between what we ideally want and what is possible.
"We do not believe that any options can be considered workable unless an exit agreement can be delivered within the initial two year period allowed for in the formal exit negotiations."
  • Scope: The economy of time, again this is a key abstraction to take-away: The scope must be practical within the time-limits available but also the scope must come across in public and political perception as do-able and realistic and not require too great a deal of stress and strain to even consider let alone commit to.
"Furthermore, we believe - largely as a result of promises given during the referendum campaign - that there will be an absolute requirement to continue participation in the EU's Single Market."
  • Prioritization: Urgency and importance of our trade and neutralizing disturbance during the political transition and process is in a word - paramount. The stats even if they are declining and over-egged by Pro-EU's are nonetheless statistically significant and is the biggest priority to sign-up to in the short-term. This is removes the Pro-EU's biggest weapon of economic FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) and reinforces The Referendum as a political and sovereign question not an economic one.
"This suggests the adoption of the so-called "Norway Option"..."
  • Concrete Solution: "Off-The-Shelf" ready-made solution to remove FUD (Which is fuelled by intangible, theoretical, predictive solutions) and fit the aforementioned: Scale, Scope, Priority. That's x4 abstractions we're making for the Norway Option including killing the Pro-EU's rhetoric which will again appear even more pertinent due to the status quo effect of referendums.
"Despite better access to regional and global standards-setting bodies compensating for the disadvantages of the "Norway Option", the immediate outcome will still be far from ideal. We thus recommend putting down a marker for negotiations seeking an EFTA/EU free trade agreement, possibly based on an expanded EFTA, alongside agreements for political co-operation."
  • Several-staged process: (not single event and solution) The EEA is a gambit for exiting the EU. From there it is then more valid to seek more viable solutions. This paradigm-shift of considering Brexit is what distinguishes "Flexcit" from most (all?) other current solutions.
"Our post-exit Britain then emerges from the implementation an eight-point programme."
  • Global Goverance vs Domestic Reform: The real-top table above Brussels is part of the political future is a major feature of Flexcit to understand (it's complexity). Secondly, National reformation of British Politics: It was the failure of the British governing system in the first place that led to the betrayal of the British people's sovereignty. The Middle is falling out of the Political Market.

FLEXCIT: 1.0 Introduction, p.6

"...without an effective and realistic exit plan, an "out" campaign is unlikely to succeed."
  • Objective : This is the unifying objective to all the different Anti-EU or Pro-Brexit (Brexiteer) groups (bar europlastics). It also provides the people with a fair question of membership of coming up to 40 years and the democratic deficit which the government has universally been obstructive to (see #3 in the series):-
  1. Removal of Political Union
  2. Removal of Judicial Union
  3. Exemption and Total Removal of Monetary Union
  4. Access To Single Market
"With the growth of the book, however, we have had to confront the problem of where to stop. The separate chapters on environment, agriculture and fisheries could be supplemented by chapters covering every EU policy."
  • Abstraction The purpose of a Brexit paper is to form general principles concerning the EU extracted from the myriad particulars and policy areas that it's "Evolution of Competencies" has developed into from the EEC of 1975 to the EU and Federalist-leaning body of 2014+. Demonstrating this substantial transition is perhaps one area where Anti-EU'ers might increase the "Visibility of Control" of the EU over the UK as per changes in Sovereignty since 1975. Once the question is out of the bottle it has grown (see Series #3)
"we have no hesitation in characterising withdrawal as a major political event, possibly equivalent in its impact to the fall of the Berlin wall."
  • Scale : This is reinforced as above: Evolution of EU Competencies (ie policy powers it now majorly dictates) is substantial as well as the changes and challenges of global regulatory bodies
"The EU has a huge influence on our economic activity. Thus, any significant perturbation in our relations with Member States could cause major disruption and drive us into recession. There is no margin for error. While leaving the EU is in our view desirable, we cannot afford to get it wrong."
  • Priority of the Single Market stability and access is paramount as previously. This probably becomes one of our axioms to the Brexit stage of "exiting" after which other priorities then can be handled.
"At this stage, we would stress that we are not going to rehearse the reasons why Britain might exit the EU or address in detail the advantages or disadvantages of so doing."
  • Assumptions of Brexit are taken as givens that it's necessary eg Sovereignty, Democracy, Prosperity & International Cooperation and Federalist ambitions of the EU itself.
"Here, we have to confront what amounts to a circular dynamic between the referendum and the Article 50 negotiations. In order to win a referendum (i.e., to gain a majority for an "out" vote), there must be a workable exit plan on the table. So important is this that we argue that, without it, a referendum campaign will never be successful. Then, in closing the loop, we assert that the conduct of the referendum campaign will have a significant impact on the subsequent exit negotiations: negotiators will be required address the expectations raised duringthe campaign."
  • Winning Strategy is a prerequisite of the Referendum process and therefore it's affect on the Article 50 TEU Lisbon Treaty formal description of the exiting conditions. This is a major failing of many Brexit papers that wander into incorrect assumptions of A50 in a political vacuum. To re-emphasis idealistic/theoretical solutions are a poor fit to concrete solutions that already are proven to exist and in fact compromise a winning strategy as the most essential element of any Brexit plan.
"As to the exit, we see this as a process, rather than as a single event or even series of events. It is an enabler, not an end in itself. We consider that the primary objectives of those managing the withdrawal are to set up the structures and strategies which will provide a sound foundation for the governance and development of a post-exit Britain."
  • Concept of Brexit = Process not an event with an immediate short-term economically directed, reachable goal, but a major political event followed by long-process post a successful referendum. This is a key paradigm-shift in the subject of Brexit to appreciate otherwise your thinking on it will be faulty and fall towards idealism at the expense of realism.
"Furthermore, we believe solutions should not be reactive. To achieve a desirable settlement, Britain should take an active role in changing the global landscape, reshaping it and the political architecture."
  • Global Governance One of the major "dividends" of Brexit is in this area.
"Effectively, if the right to leave is not conferred by the Article, it must be implicit in the Vienna Convention. A departing country must thereby be exercising its Convention rights in notifying the European Council of its intention to leave."
  • Political Act and not a legal decision, ie a referendum of the will of the people in a democratic system is the driver to successful Brexit.
"It is this meld of political and economic issues which make for the complexity and uncertainty, and which also mark out withdrawal from the EU as an unusual, if not unique process."
  • Expediency during the Article 50 Treaty 2-way negotiation is the major caveat to ambitions of Brexit plans for economic advantages ie Increase ambition, Increase Uncertainty which feeds FUD which threatens the referendum's chances of success.
"There is little point, many might say – or instinctively feel – in going to all the effort of securing the UK's withdrawal if the outcome is simply to return powers to a dysfunctional parliament which was responsible, by act or default, for giving them away in the first place. Any exit solution must be accompanied by measures which resolve the democratic deficit which allowed politicians to give away the nation's powers in the first place. It must also ensure that any government in the future is not able to repeat the process."

FLEXCIT: 2.1 A forced referendum , p.21

"As much as anything, it is the unapologetic deceit over the nature of the Lisbon Treaty, as well as the sense of betrayal on the referendum, which has in Britain dominated political discourse about the EU. There is now a huge constituency which simply does not trust Mr Cameron and his "cast iron"promises."
  • Bait And Switch nature of the EU has ballooned over time so that it's very fabric is constructed upon deception and this has manifest into the acceptable and worse, fashionable public office lies of our Prime Minsters and major leaders in The Establishment parties against the public; particularly before and after Election Events.
"When, in the run-up to the 2010 general election, Gordon Brown, chose "shamelessly" to defend signing the treaty, claiming he had protected British sovereignty, this further added to the sentiment, strengthening the disillusionment with the body politic as a whole."
  • Disenfranchisement Politics appears to be the emerging trend of the Left-Right to gravitate on the center ground and become "Cartel Parties" in power, leaving a political vacuum for a "bottom-up" party to emerge. This was predicted by Sir James Goldsmith, 3 December 1995:
"The General Election in this country is a masquerade."
In fact, it has been the EU's commitment to political integration which has been responsible for much of the ongoing friction between Britain and the other Member States. British politicians have compensated for this by extolling EU membership as a means of facilitating economic co-operation with the countries of continental Europe, especially on trade, while downplaying or even ignoring the encroachment of political integration."
  • Misinformation of the conflation between Political Union (EU) with Economic Relations (EEA) and deliberate omission of this part of debating the EU Membership from almost all major politicians' speeches to the public for the past 40 years from the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat politicians. They have attempted to NARROW the debate instead of broaden it and have therefore all failed in their duty in public office to serve the interests of the public in political pedagogy and process.
"Yet the chances of the government holding a referendum in 2017, on the back of a new treaty, seemed slight.
From a British perspective, a treaty would most likely require a referendum under the European Union Act 2011, the provision finally introduced by David Cameron as the consolation prize for not having a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Given the need for parliamentary approval and time for campaigning, that would push the event to some time in 2019."
  • Weasel Words of Mr. Cameron's words do not stack up against the evidence of his commitments (both current and past promises) and the current state of affairs of rebuffs from the EU (Barroso, Shulz) and Nation's heads of state (Merkell, Hollande):-
"Then, in early October 2013, the influential federalist Spinelli Group and Bertelsmann Stiftung jointly launched a proposal for the reform of the Treaty of Lisbon in the form of a draft treaty called "A Fundamental Law of the European Union". This was presented at the Bozar Centre for Fine Arts in Brussels. Amongst other things, it proposed a form of "associate membership", which could take the UK out of the political mainstream of the EU."
  • Rowing In Opposite Directions suggests that a repeat of history where the EU attempts to sideline the UK to ensure they can proceed with the Federal ambitions of the EU as previously (see The Great Deception).
"With not the slightest chance of treaty negotiations in any usable time frame, much less an agreement on treaty change, Mr Cameron's only remaining option is to push for political declarations on a similar basis to those secured by Harold Wilson in 1975, prior to the referendum then, or John Major in 1992 after the Danish rejection of the Maastricht Treaty."
  • Wilsonian Fudge is clearly the 3rd attempt by a UK major leader following the previous, as per "EU Reform" and conditional referendums more angling to divert political power back to the Conservatives/Establishment than to genuinely ensure the purpose of the best deal possible for the British people. In fact such conditions and incoherence further damage the British political system, the ability of the politicians to perform their public duty and above all to continue the erosion of any drop of INTEGRITY left within these people who are practicing a fraud on the British people's ownership of their Sovereignty.