Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Tuesday, 26 April 2016

Vote Leave: A Lesson In Power

Tywin teaches Joffrey a lesson in power

White Wednesday aka Roland Smith follows up another valid blog post: Idle musings: “The EU will do a deal with us”:-
"One of the biggest claims by the Leave side in this debate is that “the EU will have to do a deal with us” — a claim usually backed up by other statements such as: “we’re the fifth largest economy in the world; they’ll still want to sell us BMWs; German industrialists will be on to Mrs Merkel immediately;” and “they sell more to us than we to them.” Some Leavers also claim that precisely because our economy is so heavily aligned with the EU, we may even be able to do such a deal over a weekend."
If you remember, I pointed out that these people, in particular the politicians at the head of the Leave Campaign and especially the Vote Leave "lot" all seem to possess a similar "aura" of "talking sideways at subjects with full confidence"; as I tried to illustrate concerning the HM Treasury Report:-

What an impressive-looking pen.

First of all, to contribute to the careful analysis by White Wednesday:-
  1. Haggling: This implies the problem is one of degree. It is not: Two different Rules Systems: EU Treaties vs Outside EU Treaties (Self-Governance).
  2. Inferiority Complex: The foundation for this thinking is based on our politicians' obsession with projecting a "self-important" image onto the world of the UK or more accurately themselves to the British people upon upholding this "legendary status"; hence any "deal" must come with silver tassels and other special privileges befitting such "status anxiety". A lot of the self-deception in our politics and hence "bubble driven policy" seems to derive from this affliction.
  3. Whining Tone: The actual communication comes across as asking for things that are not actually relevant, and hence any concession must be massaging fragile egos; namely token and gesture based: "Special Status" sounds all too snugly fitting... for such swaddling infants.
  4. Dominance-Submissive Dynamic: The clip above from Game Of Thrones is worth considering; people projecting a kind of dominance or coercion is an unbalanced relationship, where I think actually all that is actually demanded is an EQUAL Relationship - by withdrawing orderly and in cooperation with the EU from EU Treaty Rules.
  5. Rule-Based Argument: John Ashworth pointed this out, in his booklet: The Betray of Britain's Fishing To The European Union; the problem the UK has with the EU is not necessarily the EU: It's our own politicians, who either:-
  • Did not Read the EU Treaty Rules correctly, or,
  • Did read these EU Treaty Rules but deceived and continue to deceive the British Public over the consequences of these rules.
Interesting, it was posited that the "Inferiority Complex" that may have been one of the major inputs into Britain opting to join the EEC back in the 1960's is a latent force at work still today, resorting to cowardice and a complete lack of courage in our politicians to face the factual feedback and revert back into their bubbles... as White Wednesday I think is careful in pointing out in the above blog post.

There appears however to be some "good people" attempting to do just this and put the facts first, such as The Sceptic Isle:

We need to get the politics right. If we de-risk Brexit, it will have almost no ill-effects

"The two pivotal words of the EU referendum campaign are “could” and “how”.  Every analysis of the consequences of Britain leaving the European Union are heavily reliant on the word “could”, or similar words like “might”. We will hear it endlessly right up until the vote. Brexit could mean this and Brexit could cause that. What it entirely comes down to is how we leave the European Union.
This is essential to keep in mind when considering the IMF warning that an EU exit could cause severe damage. The warning said Brexit would ‘disrupt established trading relationships’, and ‘disrupt and reduce mutual trade and financial flows’. Such points of concern are of course based on the consequences of leaving the Single Market without having concluded a trading arrangement. The IMF warning is entirely contingent on the UK unilaterally withdrawing from the EU or failing to make arrangements for trade.
I’ve argued repeatedly that due the conclusions of a vast multitude of analyses the Government will look to adopt the existing EEA based model to protect the economy, facilitate negotiations and prevent disruption. What the IMF is referring to is a worst case scenario that neither the UK or the EU want or can afford politically or economically."

On one level it is all about risk if we use our "Left-Brain Thinking" adeptly. If we look at our "Right-Brain Thinking" complementary however, I'd argue that it's not merely risk, it's our "breaking through our own barriers" and putting aside this destructive force of "inferiority complex" that drives so much of our political (lack of) leadership and makes such cowards or "Donkeys Leading Lions" and the poor consequences that has a tendency to keep on leading towards?

What is something we can all agree on?

I'd suggest that we can all agree on what is written down in the rules that govern us. The Brexit Door produced an outstanding piece of work reflecting on this both for our own Democracy with reference to Tony Benn's famous five question and also with respect to how to message correctly in this campaign:-

EU Referendum – Your help is needed

One of the things you'll notice about King Joffrey/Vote Leave is the way in which both "grasp at things"; for all their self-styled indomitable shows of supreme confidence in themselves and their place in the world, if we look at Vote Leave to keep things on track:-
  • Better Deal/Reform For Britain!
  • The Public Demand Immigration Control of Borders for any Plan!
  • Don't worry we don't need a plan, we'll sort it all out after we leave!
  • The PM has done well under the circumstances lying to us all!
  • We need a Great Leader such as BoJo to lead us to the promised land! All hail!
  • Hannan, the breath-taking Orator of our times! Cummings the boy-wizard mastermind without a plan.
Anyone who has to say: "I am the King"...

This behaviour kind of reminds me of King Joffrey in the above clip: "Flipping out" reactions and edicts: It's delinquent and hence delusional. There's a short summary of Owen Paterson's Brilliant Brexit Patter by contrast:-
  1. Paterson’s vision for a UK outside these uncertainties is one of a self-governing, free-trading nation, a true part of the global family, its international trade and participation no longer absorbed into the EU.
  2. There is no status quo. If the UK remains in the EU, it will be a second-class citizen, and the EU’s political centralization will continue, dragging the UK along with it. The eurozone, politically integrated by 2025, will dominate the rest. 
And how?
"Leaving the EU is not an instant commitment, but a process. There would – and certainly should – be a long process of discussion before the formal commitment to withdraw (and the two-year i-dotting period that follows it) is given."
By redrawing and choosing to find new agreements on which rules we choose for ourselves and hence our future relationships with each other, hopefully for the better of all. God forbid we end up with more "King Joffrey"!

Qualitatively different arguments about Rules and Change In Rules and Rate of Change

Our own politicians as John Ashworth rightly observes, are the real problem even beyond the highly rational analysis that is readily available to anyone to help them come to their own conclusions in their own way.