Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Red Cliffs Of Dawlish
Red Cliffs Of Dawlish

Friday, 15 April 2016


 Thanks to Google News we can see FUD for what it really is: JENGA!

A very significant and repeating aetiology:-

"Etiology (/tiˈɒləi/; alternatively aetiology or ætiology) is the study of causation, or origination. The word is derived from the Greek αἰτιολογία, aitiologia, "giving a reason for" (αἰτία, aitia, "cause"; and -λογία, -logia). The word is most commonly used in medical and philosophical theories, where it is used to refer to the study of why things occur, or even the reasons behind the way that things act."
in the Pro-EU arguments takes the form of:-
  1. The EU is not in terribly great shape, I admit that. I accept there is some minor issue with the eurozone or with Greece or with borders... however,
  2. It needs reform and we would be "throwing away" our friendship with our good friends if we were to leave.
  3. We should not "turn our backs" on """"""""Europe""""""""" but show "solidarity" and work on the inside... otherwise spurning our friendships, they would not think to treat us badly if we left having treated them so disrespectfully. And besides if Murdoch can influence Number 10 but not Brussels that tells you everything doesn't it!
  4. And... and... that is why Climate Change, Terrorism, Crime and... and... CHINA!!!
  5. I shall be fighting body and soul to remain in the EU my good people! How I will fight for you...

Example of giving a really "low-quality reason for"... Substitute labelling = Superstitious Results

This old appellation was used to label "the unknown" on old maps. And so it seems we experience the same use of a fearsome image when we fail to provide a map for our thinking in decision-making, in this case political so-called "democratic" decision-making for the UK's EU Referendum.

Now with any decision-making there is an element of uncertainty as opposed to certainty when there is no decision-making and hence it's certain. However I think this is an underlying cause of over the long-term increasing uncertainty more and more instead of dealing with smaller quantities of more specific areas of decision-making, what might be called "Antifragile" engineering into our politics: The longer the lack of decision-making the longer the lack of selective forces operating on any given system and the more divorced it becomes from reality checks until:-

A House Of Cards: The longer the game goes on, the bigger the fragility and FUD

The "sudden" collapse, that apparently none of the experts predicted. You can read more of this concerning the IMF via Dr. RAE North:-

There's an especially resounding reminder of the predictions of such economists:-
"In fact, so inaccurate is IMF forecasting that one commentator suggested taxpayers' money could be saved by replacing  its staff with dart-throwing chimps.This was after its 2013 forecast for world growth came in at 4.1 percent when the S&P 500 had been at 1,400. When it issued its revised outlook of 2.9 percent,  the S&P 500 had been just a whisker off its all time high.

In 2014, the Finanical Times was assessing its record in predicting the 2009 recession. Its verdict was: "An astonishing record – of complete failure". To be fair, this remark was not confined to the IMF. Nevertheless, none other than IMF economist Prakash Loungani found there was little to choose between the IMF and the World Bank, and private-sector forecasters. Their records were all "terrible". Loungani wrote: "The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished".

By 2104, Loungani, with a colleague, Hites Ahir, had returned to the topic in the wake of the economic crisis. The record of failure remained "impressive", he said. Of 77 countries under consideration, 49 had been in recession in 2009. Economists had not predicted a single one."
The language used in markets: The Bear And Bull Market:-
"The terms "bull market" and "bear market" describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. The names perhaps correspond to the fact that a bull attacks by lifting its horns upward, while a bear strikes with its claws in a downward motion."
Seems to be concerned with either an upward or a downward trend but little with the respective "antifragile" quality of such directions in either direction. Confidence or Uncertainty are the two psychological terms for market conditions. And if you look at Google News and the IMF and Brexit and The Bank Of England, truly you'll start to see how ineffectual these institutions really are:-
"Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better".
If we are to be sucked against our will into converting a Political Decision into something that has Economic consequences, then we can always point out that in any case, the IMF and the likes of the Pro-EU supporters created such a picture as this:-

As for Brexit and it's effect, the political causes "a priori" are:-

It seems to me that the take-home from the intervention and use of FUD by the likes of the IMF and The Bank Of England and the Eurozone/EU and Westminster is that not only do we need to reform our own politics, but the part that has not been completed; namely the "Separation Of Powers" to increase decision-making feedback on the exertion of those powers is in particular the "Monetary" Powers; to which a lot of "Here Be Dragons" is still applied in our daily lives:-